While recent headlines reported that U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone in February 2009, economic ties between Iraq and Iran have continued to increase in the last few months. Iran is already one of Iraq’s largest trade partners, accounting for almost 50% of the country’s imports. Recently the two countries have signed a number of memorandums of understandings meant to boost trade to $5 billion by the end of the year.
On March 15, 2009 the Iraqi Ministry of Trade signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for Iranian companies to provide products for Iraq’s Central Markets Company. This took place as part of an Iraqi trade delegation visit to Iran. The agreement would have Iranian businesses provide goods for state-run shopping centers that already sell almost exclusively Iranian products. The MoU was the latest part of a plan agreed to by both countries to boost trade to $5 billion by the end of 2009, with the goal of $10 billion by 2010.
In the previous month several other MoUs and deals were inked. One was with the Iraqi Trade Ministry. Another was with the Ministry of Housing to increase aid on construction. This occurred while Iraqi President Jalal Talabani was visiting Iran on his way back from South Korea. Earlier in February Iran won a $1.5 billion contract to construct a new town south of Basra that would include 5,000 housing units, schools, parks, and shops. It was the largest deal signed with Iran so far. All of the building supplies are supposed to come from Iran. The contract occurred just after Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki visited Iraq. It was during that trip that Iran and Iraq agreed to try to boost trade to $5 billion.
Iran represents almost half of all of Iraq’s imports. The head of the Iran-Iraq Economic Development Headquarters said in January 2009 that the two countries had traded over $3 billion in goods in 2008. UPI said that trade is at $4 billion now. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that in 2007 Iraq imported $2.7 billion from Iran. That was 48% of Iraq’s total, and 30% of Iran’s trade.
As reported before, Iraq has been flooded by imports since the U.S. invasion. This began when the Coalition Provisional Authority did away with Iraq’s tariffs and duties in an attempt to boost demand and get the economy going after the war. Iran stepped in, along with Syria, China, and others. Iranian products have a distinct advantage as Tehran heavily subsidizes its businesses. The effect on Iraq has been largely detrimental, as it has undercut many domestic industries. Iraqi companies have complained about the cheap imports, and demanded some protection, but the trade agreements have only increased.
SOURCES
Aswat al-Iraq, “Iraq, Iran sign MoUs in different spheres,” 2/28/09
- “Iraq, Iran sign MoUs to enhance trade,” 3/15/09
- “Iraq, Iran to up economic cooperation to $10b,” 1/4/09
Azzaman, “Iran wins $1.5 billion Basra construction contract,” 2/16/09
- “Trade Ministry signs deals to expand imports from Iran,” 3/17/09
Chon, Gina, “Iran’s Cheap Goods Stifle Iraq Economy,” Wall Street Journal, 3/18/09
Iran Daily, “Trade Between Iraq, Iran Hits $3b in 9 Months,” 1/6/09
Nordland, Rod and Rubin, Alissa, “U.S. Says It Shot Down an Iranian Drone Over Iraq,” New York Times, 3/17/09
Rath, Tiare, “Iraq Looks to Iran,” Institute for War & Peace Reporting, 1/15/09
Roads To Iraq Blog, “Iran’s new policy towards Iraq,” 3/8/09
UPI, “Iraq-Iran trade meeting pledges $5 billion,” 2/12/09
Xinhua, “Iraqi Factories Fight to Survive Turbulence,” 11/23/08
Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Iran’s Dual Policy At Work
In October 2008, the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point issued a report on Iran’s policy towards Iraq since the 1980s. Their main argument was that Tehran follows a multi-faceted policy towards Iraq not aimed at taking over the country, but rather to garner influence so that they can play a role in the country no matter what the situation. That has led Iran to back various political parties, armed groups, and building up economic and cultural ties, even if they contradict each other. For example, Iran supports both the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, while undermining it by backing Special Groups. Recent events over the last two months highlight this strategy of building up economic and cultural relations, while supporting violence, and undermining the political system.
Economic Influence Increases
Today Iran stands as one of the closest economic partners Iraq has. During the Saddam years Iran’s economic connections with Iraq were negligible because of the rivalry between the two countries. In the mid-1990s there was a slight thawing of relations that allowed a limited amount of trade, consisting mostly of Iranian plastics and appliances being imported. Since the U.S. invasion however, Iran has moved into the Iraqi market with a vengeance. Iraq has few to no tariffs, and Iraqi businesses have been crippled because of the violence, closings, and electricity and fuel shortages, all of which have allowed a flood of Iranian goods to enter. Iran now exports food, consumer goods, building materials, clothing, medicine, and medical equipment to name a few, becoming one of Iraq’s largest trading partners. The flow is completely one sided as Iraq hardly sends anything to Iran.
The Kurds receive the majority of Iranian goods. Since the beginning of this year, they have imported $1.2 billion in Iranian products. The Kurdish Regional Government and Tehran have signed a number of memorandums of understanding on trade, roads, energy, and other issues. A new border trading post is going to be opened in Kurdistan soon to add to the two existing ones as both sides want to increase commerce. As a sign of these growing ties, Iranian businesses dominated a trade fair in Dohuk, while Sulamaniyah had an expo of Iranian goods this November. The Kurds are also hoping for more Iranian companies to invest in the KRG. They currently have the most business in the region.
The rest of Iraq has also developed strong economic connections with Iran. In November, the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture signed a memorandum of understanding with its Iranian counterpart for training and investment in joint ventures in the field. Baghdad also hosted a trade fair of Iranian goods in November to coincide with the Kurdish one.
These close ties are exactly what Tehran has wanted since the toppling of Saddam. Iran now has a large stake in the Iraqi economy, and provides everything from consumer goods, to food, to fuel. Iraqi leaders regularly call on Iran to invest in Iraq and increase trade. This can be a positive influence as the Iraqi economy is plagued by systemic problems. At the same time it increases Iran’s means of leverage over Baghdad.
Cultural Ties
The cultural and religious ties between the two countries have also increased since the invasion. Iran is the largest source of tourism for Iraq. In 2007, Iran signed an agreement with Iraq to allow 1,500 religious pilgrims into the country each day. To increase this flow the Najaf International Airport opened in November 2008. It plans on offering flights to five airports in Iran, with the first in mid-December. While the airport will offer service to a number of other countries in the region, Iranians will be far and away the largest customers. Local markets in Najaf are already full of Iranian imports, the garbage trucks in the city were donated by Iran, a local hospital was built by Iranian contractors, while the tourists provide up to $20 million a year in business. This is reciprocated by up to 1 million Iraqis going to Iran each year to visit holy sites, vacation, and get medical treatment. Like trade, these ties were severely restricted under Saddam’s regime, but now the doors are open. There is a huge exchange of money and people between the two countries because of their proximity and shared Shiite religion, concentrated in southern Iraq. Not all of this is positive, as there are various reports of Iran using this flow of people to infiltrate spies and agents into Iraq. At the same time, it does build up closer relations between the two countries, and has created a whole industry of Iraqi businesses to serve the Iranian travelers.
Political Manipulation and Security Threats
Much of this benign influence is overlooked in the West, with most reports focusing upon Tehran’s attempts to undermine Iraq. Iran has both supported and manipulated Iraq’s political system to prop up parties it supports, while backing militant Shiite groups that it can use to apply pressure on either the Americans or Baghdad. For example, on November 22 a fuel truck was stopped in Wasit that was transferring an Iranian agent across the border. The Iranian carried fake Iraqi IDs. An Iraqi source told Aswat al-Iraq that the identity cards were probably going to be used to falsify votes in the upcoming provincial elections. Iran stood by Iraq’s 2005 elections because they allowed Iran’s allies, the Dawa Party, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), and the Sadrists to all gain seats on provincial councils and in parliament, as well as pass a constitution that set up a federal system that weakened the power of the central government. According to the Combating Terrorism Center’s report, this was Iran’s key goal, to place its friends in power and keep the Iraqi state weak so that it would not be a threat. Iran can be expected to support the upcoming provincial and parliamentary elections as well to make sure that their allies stay in office.
A small example of how these ties can benefit Iran was when an alleged Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qods Force officer named Nader Qorbani was arrested at the Baghdad airport on November 18, 2008. The U.S. claimed that he was involved in smuggling weapons to Special Groups through an Iranian construction company. A few days later Qorbani was released. An Iraqi official said that Qorbani was legitimately in the country, while an Iranian newspaper claimed Tehran had him freed. Reuters reported that the Iraqi Deputy Foreign Minister intervened with the Americans to facilitate Qorbani’s release. The U.S. often warns about Iran’s nefarious role in Iraq and its support of violence, but in this case, Qorbani was in and out of the news in a flash. This was all the more surprising as Iraq had captured 10 other Iranian agents and killed one during the previous month trying to infiltrate the border. In this case it seemed, Iran’s allies in Baghdad wanted to get this incident over as quickly as possible to limit whatever negative press might result from it.
Conclusion
As reported earlier, Iran has largely achieved its goals in Iraq. It has close ties to the ruling coalition behind Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government. Iran provides many basic necessities, goods, and services to Iraq. Thousands of Iranians travel to Iraq each day to increase religious and cultural bonds. At the same time, it continues to arm and train Shiite militants who can be used to attack Americans or Baghdad when it serves Tehran’s purposes. As the Combating Terrorism Center report notes, Iran hopes to be able to influence Iraq no matter what the situation is through all of these connections. Much of this has largely gone unnoticed, as the Americans have focused almost solely upon Iran’s military policy. As the American role decreases with troop withdrawals planned, it’s hard to see them being able to counter Tehran’s reach. The one caveat is Maliki’s increasing nationalism that could prove to be a damper on Iran. Even the Prime Minister however, sees nothing wrong with Iran’s economic and religious ties, which means Teheran will probably be able to maintain its strong position in Iraq into the near future.
SOURCES
Abbas, Mohammed, “Iran’s influence? You can heart it on Iraqi streets,” Reuters, 9/30/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “Barzani says we will never allow any action against Iran from Iraq,” 10/23/08
- “Iran to activate border trade with Iraq’s Kurdistan-governor,” 10/29/08
- “Iranian with forged Iraqi IDs arrested in Wassit,” 11/22/08
- “MoU with Iranian Agriculture Ministry,” 11/11/08
Azzaman, “Iran exports $2 billion worth of goods to Iraq,” 11/24/08
Elkhamri, Mounir, “Iran’s Contribution to the Civil War in Iraq,” Jamestown Foundation, January 2007
Fadhel, Mohammed, “Iranians urged to increase investments in Iraq,” Azzaman, 11/20/08
Felter, Joseph and Fishman, Brian, “Iranian Strategy in Iraq, Politics and ‘Other Means,’” Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, 10/13/08
FNA, “Iran Sends 160 Fuel Trucks to Iraq Everyday,” 10/1/08
Al-Jaberi, Sadoun, “Iranian pilgrims to fly direct to Najaf for first time,” Azzaman, 11/15/08’
Oghlo, Maher, “Border point with Iran turned into international crossing,” Azzaman, 4/17/08
Roggio, Bill, “US forces detain senior Iranian Qods Force officer in Baghdad,” Long War Journal.org, 11/18/08
Al-Sadawi, Ahmad, “Iranian products win the market,” Niqash, 6/13/08
Saidazimova, Gulnoza, “Iran/Iraq: Trade Flow Increases, But Mostly From Tehran To Baghdad,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 3/4/08
Sly, Liz, “Iranian influence soaring in Iraq,” Chicago Tribune, 3/8/07
Susman, Tina, “IRAQ: The Iranian that got away,” Babylon & Beyond Blog, Los Angeles Times, 11/25/08
- “Release of Iranian raises questions in Iraq,” Los Angeles Times, 11/25/08
White, Jeffrey, “Fighting Iran in Iraq,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2/14/07
Wong, Edward, “Iran Is Playing a Growing Role in Iraq Economy,” New York Times, 3/17/07
Yacoub, Sameer, “Iraq: Iranian detained by US has been released,” Associated Press, 11/22/08
Zaibari, Abdulkarim, “Dahouk to host Iranian trade fair,” Azzaman, 11/8/08
Economic Influence Increases
Today Iran stands as one of the closest economic partners Iraq has. During the Saddam years Iran’s economic connections with Iraq were negligible because of the rivalry between the two countries. In the mid-1990s there was a slight thawing of relations that allowed a limited amount of trade, consisting mostly of Iranian plastics and appliances being imported. Since the U.S. invasion however, Iran has moved into the Iraqi market with a vengeance. Iraq has few to no tariffs, and Iraqi businesses have been crippled because of the violence, closings, and electricity and fuel shortages, all of which have allowed a flood of Iranian goods to enter. Iran now exports food, consumer goods, building materials, clothing, medicine, and medical equipment to name a few, becoming one of Iraq’s largest trading partners. The flow is completely one sided as Iraq hardly sends anything to Iran.
The Kurds receive the majority of Iranian goods. Since the beginning of this year, they have imported $1.2 billion in Iranian products. The Kurdish Regional Government and Tehran have signed a number of memorandums of understanding on trade, roads, energy, and other issues. A new border trading post is going to be opened in Kurdistan soon to add to the two existing ones as both sides want to increase commerce. As a sign of these growing ties, Iranian businesses dominated a trade fair in Dohuk, while Sulamaniyah had an expo of Iranian goods this November. The Kurds are also hoping for more Iranian companies to invest in the KRG. They currently have the most business in the region.
The rest of Iraq has also developed strong economic connections with Iran. In November, the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture signed a memorandum of understanding with its Iranian counterpart for training and investment in joint ventures in the field. Baghdad also hosted a trade fair of Iranian goods in November to coincide with the Kurdish one.
These close ties are exactly what Tehran has wanted since the toppling of Saddam. Iran now has a large stake in the Iraqi economy, and provides everything from consumer goods, to food, to fuel. Iraqi leaders regularly call on Iran to invest in Iraq and increase trade. This can be a positive influence as the Iraqi economy is plagued by systemic problems. At the same time it increases Iran’s means of leverage over Baghdad.
Cultural Ties
The cultural and religious ties between the two countries have also increased since the invasion. Iran is the largest source of tourism for Iraq. In 2007, Iran signed an agreement with Iraq to allow 1,500 religious pilgrims into the country each day. To increase this flow the Najaf International Airport opened in November 2008. It plans on offering flights to five airports in Iran, with the first in mid-December. While the airport will offer service to a number of other countries in the region, Iranians will be far and away the largest customers. Local markets in Najaf are already full of Iranian imports, the garbage trucks in the city were donated by Iran, a local hospital was built by Iranian contractors, while the tourists provide up to $20 million a year in business. This is reciprocated by up to 1 million Iraqis going to Iran each year to visit holy sites, vacation, and get medical treatment. Like trade, these ties were severely restricted under Saddam’s regime, but now the doors are open. There is a huge exchange of money and people between the two countries because of their proximity and shared Shiite religion, concentrated in southern Iraq. Not all of this is positive, as there are various reports of Iran using this flow of people to infiltrate spies and agents into Iraq. At the same time, it does build up closer relations between the two countries, and has created a whole industry of Iraqi businesses to serve the Iranian travelers.
Political Manipulation and Security Threats
Much of this benign influence is overlooked in the West, with most reports focusing upon Tehran’s attempts to undermine Iraq. Iran has both supported and manipulated Iraq’s political system to prop up parties it supports, while backing militant Shiite groups that it can use to apply pressure on either the Americans or Baghdad. For example, on November 22 a fuel truck was stopped in Wasit that was transferring an Iranian agent across the border. The Iranian carried fake Iraqi IDs. An Iraqi source told Aswat al-Iraq that the identity cards were probably going to be used to falsify votes in the upcoming provincial elections. Iran stood by Iraq’s 2005 elections because they allowed Iran’s allies, the Dawa Party, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), and the Sadrists to all gain seats on provincial councils and in parliament, as well as pass a constitution that set up a federal system that weakened the power of the central government. According to the Combating Terrorism Center’s report, this was Iran’s key goal, to place its friends in power and keep the Iraqi state weak so that it would not be a threat. Iran can be expected to support the upcoming provincial and parliamentary elections as well to make sure that their allies stay in office.
A small example of how these ties can benefit Iran was when an alleged Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qods Force officer named Nader Qorbani was arrested at the Baghdad airport on November 18, 2008. The U.S. claimed that he was involved in smuggling weapons to Special Groups through an Iranian construction company. A few days later Qorbani was released. An Iraqi official said that Qorbani was legitimately in the country, while an Iranian newspaper claimed Tehran had him freed. Reuters reported that the Iraqi Deputy Foreign Minister intervened with the Americans to facilitate Qorbani’s release. The U.S. often warns about Iran’s nefarious role in Iraq and its support of violence, but in this case, Qorbani was in and out of the news in a flash. This was all the more surprising as Iraq had captured 10 other Iranian agents and killed one during the previous month trying to infiltrate the border. In this case it seemed, Iran’s allies in Baghdad wanted to get this incident over as quickly as possible to limit whatever negative press might result from it.
Conclusion
As reported earlier, Iran has largely achieved its goals in Iraq. It has close ties to the ruling coalition behind Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government. Iran provides many basic necessities, goods, and services to Iraq. Thousands of Iranians travel to Iraq each day to increase religious and cultural bonds. At the same time, it continues to arm and train Shiite militants who can be used to attack Americans or Baghdad when it serves Tehran’s purposes. As the Combating Terrorism Center report notes, Iran hopes to be able to influence Iraq no matter what the situation is through all of these connections. Much of this has largely gone unnoticed, as the Americans have focused almost solely upon Iran’s military policy. As the American role decreases with troop withdrawals planned, it’s hard to see them being able to counter Tehran’s reach. The one caveat is Maliki’s increasing nationalism that could prove to be a damper on Iran. Even the Prime Minister however, sees nothing wrong with Iran’s economic and religious ties, which means Teheran will probably be able to maintain its strong position in Iraq into the near future.
SOURCES
Abbas, Mohammed, “Iran’s influence? You can heart it on Iraqi streets,” Reuters, 9/30/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “Barzani says we will never allow any action against Iran from Iraq,” 10/23/08
- “Iran to activate border trade with Iraq’s Kurdistan-governor,” 10/29/08
- “Iranian with forged Iraqi IDs arrested in Wassit,” 11/22/08
- “MoU with Iranian Agriculture Ministry,” 11/11/08
Azzaman, “Iran exports $2 billion worth of goods to Iraq,” 11/24/08
Elkhamri, Mounir, “Iran’s Contribution to the Civil War in Iraq,” Jamestown Foundation, January 2007
Fadhel, Mohammed, “Iranians urged to increase investments in Iraq,” Azzaman, 11/20/08
Felter, Joseph and Fishman, Brian, “Iranian Strategy in Iraq, Politics and ‘Other Means,’” Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, 10/13/08
FNA, “Iran Sends 160 Fuel Trucks to Iraq Everyday,” 10/1/08
Al-Jaberi, Sadoun, “Iranian pilgrims to fly direct to Najaf for first time,” Azzaman, 11/15/08’
Oghlo, Maher, “Border point with Iran turned into international crossing,” Azzaman, 4/17/08
Roggio, Bill, “US forces detain senior Iranian Qods Force officer in Baghdad,” Long War Journal.org, 11/18/08
Al-Sadawi, Ahmad, “Iranian products win the market,” Niqash, 6/13/08
Saidazimova, Gulnoza, “Iran/Iraq: Trade Flow Increases, But Mostly From Tehran To Baghdad,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 3/4/08
Sly, Liz, “Iranian influence soaring in Iraq,” Chicago Tribune, 3/8/07
Susman, Tina, “IRAQ: The Iranian that got away,” Babylon & Beyond Blog, Los Angeles Times, 11/25/08
- “Release of Iranian raises questions in Iraq,” Los Angeles Times, 11/25/08
White, Jeffrey, “Fighting Iran in Iraq,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2/14/07
Wong, Edward, “Iran Is Playing a Growing Role in Iraq Economy,” New York Times, 3/17/07
Yacoub, Sameer, “Iraq: Iranian detained by US has been released,” Associated Press, 11/22/08
Zaibari, Abdulkarim, “Dahouk to host Iranian trade fair,” Azzaman, 11/8/08
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Wasit Province Turned Over To Iraqi Control
The following commentary originally appeared in Musings On Iraq
Image source: BBC
On Wednesday October 29, Wasit province in southern Iraq was turned over to Iraqi control. It was the 13th of 18 provinces to be handed over to Baghdad. This follows closely after Babil went through a similar process on October 23.
Wasit has a population of 941,800 people, 100% of which are Shiite. The province’s economy is based upon farming, oil, and natural gas. Many of these natural resources are not being exploited however because the government has shown no leadership in developing them. The pace of reconstruction in the province is also slow, and there is little investment. On the positive side, in September 2008, Iraq and Iran signed a free trade agreement, which would includes a border crossing in Wasit. As reported earlier, Iran is Iraq’s largest trade partner, and supplies most of the country’s consumer goods.
The Gathering of Iraqi Elites runs the provincial council, which is part of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC). The U.S. Provincial Reconstruction Team in the province ranked their governance as “Developing,” the second lowest of five rankings. In terms of running Wasit, the council spent $33.7 million of its $83 million budget, 41% in 2007. That made it the eighth best among Iraq’s 18 provinces in budget execution. As with Baghdad, most of this money has been spent on salaries and expenses, rather than on infrastructure to rebuild the area. The major issue politically today, is the attempt by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to sway voters away from the SIIC to his Dawa party. In September the Prime Minister tried to set up a Tribal Support Council to this end, but the provincial council objected. The next month, Maliki went ahead and formed a council there anyway.
The province is also home to several thousand internally displaced Iraqis. The Special Inspector General for Iraq (SIGIR) reconstruction counted 75,325 in its July 2008 report. The Iraqi Ministry of Displacement and Migration and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) counted 118 families, 708 people, had recently returned to Wasit. In a separate report, the IOM reported that 100 displaced families had left for their home provinces.
Security in Wasit is considered good. SIGIR ranked it the 9th most violent province. The major source of conflict in the area recently was not between insurgents and the government and U.S., but with Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and Iranian-backed Special Groups. Wasit and its capital Kut was part of one of the major routes Iranian operatives used to funnel weapons into Baghdad. In the fall of 2007, the U.S. began expanding its Sons of Iraq program to Wasit, aimed largely at stopping the flow of Iranian supplies and Shiite militias. During the security crackdown in Basra in March 2008, Iraqi forces were also involved in fighting Sadrists in Kut. These operations continued through the summer with senior Sadrists arrested, along with Special Group fighters. The conflict with the Mahdi Army also led to hundreds of local police being fired as suspected followers of Sadr. Iran continues to try to infiltrate the area as three members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were just arrested in Kut on October 20, and another one was killed and one detained in separate incident south of Kut on October 24.
Overall, Wasit is relatively secure, but lacks an effective government and economy. There are few attacks, although Special Groups and Iranian agents are still operating there. At the same time, Iran is playing a positive role in the province, with a major trade route running through Kut, that provides essential goods to Iraqis. The ruling SIIC provincial council hasn’t done that good of a job running the area, and they are facing a strong challenge by the Prime Minister’s Dawa party, who is attempting to organize tribes behind him. The province is an example of post-Surge Iraq, where security is still an issue, but economic and political ones are becoming more important.
SOURCES
Ahmed, Farook and Cochrane, Marisa, “Recent Operations against Special Groups and JAM in Central and Southern Iraq,” Institute for the Study of War, 4/7/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “3 Iranian Revolutionary Guards arrested in Wassit,” 10/20/08
- “QRF kills Iranian gunman, detains another in Wassit,” 10/24/08
- “Wassit province refuses to establish support councils,” 9/24/08
Gamel, Kim, “U.S. Expands Anbar Model to Iraq Shiites,” Associated Press, 9/16/07
International Organization for Migration, “IOM Emergency Needs Assessments,” 10/1/08
IraqSlogger.com, “New Tribal Groups Buck Wishes of Wasit Council,” 10/23/08
Jab, Abdul-Razaq, “US military hands southern province over to Iraqis,” Associated Press, 10/29/08
Juhi, Bushra, “Iraq fires 1,300 soldiers and policemen for refusing to fight,” Associated Press, 4/13/08
Kagan, Kimberly, “Iran’s Proxy War against the United States and the Iraqi Government,” Institute for the Study of War, 8/20/07
Middle East Reference, “Governorate elections held in Iraq on 31 January 2005”
Ministry of Displacement and Migration & International Organization for Migration, “Returnee Monitoring and Needs Assessments Tabulation Report,” September 2008
Roggio, Bill, “Iran’s Ramazan Corps and the ratlines into Iraq,” Long War Journal.org, 12/5/07
- “Report: Iraqi security forces preparing operation against Mahdi Army in Maysan,” Long War Journal.org, 6/12/08
- “Report: Sadr to extend cease-fire,” Long War Journal.org, 2/21/08
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/08
Tehran Times, “Iran, Iraq to create 3 free zones,” 9/13/08
Image source: BBCOn Wednesday October 29, Wasit province in southern Iraq was turned over to Iraqi control. It was the 13th of 18 provinces to be handed over to Baghdad. This follows closely after Babil went through a similar process on October 23.
Wasit has a population of 941,800 people, 100% of which are Shiite. The province’s economy is based upon farming, oil, and natural gas. Many of these natural resources are not being exploited however because the government has shown no leadership in developing them. The pace of reconstruction in the province is also slow, and there is little investment. On the positive side, in September 2008, Iraq and Iran signed a free trade agreement, which would includes a border crossing in Wasit. As reported earlier, Iran is Iraq’s largest trade partner, and supplies most of the country’s consumer goods.
The Gathering of Iraqi Elites runs the provincial council, which is part of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC). The U.S. Provincial Reconstruction Team in the province ranked their governance as “Developing,” the second lowest of five rankings. In terms of running Wasit, the council spent $33.7 million of its $83 million budget, 41% in 2007. That made it the eighth best among Iraq’s 18 provinces in budget execution. As with Baghdad, most of this money has been spent on salaries and expenses, rather than on infrastructure to rebuild the area. The major issue politically today, is the attempt by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to sway voters away from the SIIC to his Dawa party. In September the Prime Minister tried to set up a Tribal Support Council to this end, but the provincial council objected. The next month, Maliki went ahead and formed a council there anyway.
The province is also home to several thousand internally displaced Iraqis. The Special Inspector General for Iraq (SIGIR) reconstruction counted 75,325 in its July 2008 report. The Iraqi Ministry of Displacement and Migration and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) counted 118 families, 708 people, had recently returned to Wasit. In a separate report, the IOM reported that 100 displaced families had left for their home provinces.
Security in Wasit is considered good. SIGIR ranked it the 9th most violent province. The major source of conflict in the area recently was not between insurgents and the government and U.S., but with Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and Iranian-backed Special Groups. Wasit and its capital Kut was part of one of the major routes Iranian operatives used to funnel weapons into Baghdad. In the fall of 2007, the U.S. began expanding its Sons of Iraq program to Wasit, aimed largely at stopping the flow of Iranian supplies and Shiite militias. During the security crackdown in Basra in March 2008, Iraqi forces were also involved in fighting Sadrists in Kut. These operations continued through the summer with senior Sadrists arrested, along with Special Group fighters. The conflict with the Mahdi Army also led to hundreds of local police being fired as suspected followers of Sadr. Iran continues to try to infiltrate the area as three members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were just arrested in Kut on October 20, and another one was killed and one detained in separate incident south of Kut on October 24.
Overall, Wasit is relatively secure, but lacks an effective government and economy. There are few attacks, although Special Groups and Iranian agents are still operating there. At the same time, Iran is playing a positive role in the province, with a major trade route running through Kut, that provides essential goods to Iraqis. The ruling SIIC provincial council hasn’t done that good of a job running the area, and they are facing a strong challenge by the Prime Minister’s Dawa party, who is attempting to organize tribes behind him. The province is an example of post-Surge Iraq, where security is still an issue, but economic and political ones are becoming more important.
SOURCES
Ahmed, Farook and Cochrane, Marisa, “Recent Operations against Special Groups and JAM in Central and Southern Iraq,” Institute for the Study of War, 4/7/08
Aswat al-Iraq, “3 Iranian Revolutionary Guards arrested in Wassit,” 10/20/08
- “QRF kills Iranian gunman, detains another in Wassit,” 10/24/08
- “Wassit province refuses to establish support councils,” 9/24/08
Gamel, Kim, “U.S. Expands Anbar Model to Iraq Shiites,” Associated Press, 9/16/07
International Organization for Migration, “IOM Emergency Needs Assessments,” 10/1/08
IraqSlogger.com, “New Tribal Groups Buck Wishes of Wasit Council,” 10/23/08
Jab, Abdul-Razaq, “US military hands southern province over to Iraqis,” Associated Press, 10/29/08
Juhi, Bushra, “Iraq fires 1,300 soldiers and policemen for refusing to fight,” Associated Press, 4/13/08
Kagan, Kimberly, “Iran’s Proxy War against the United States and the Iraqi Government,” Institute for the Study of War, 8/20/07
Middle East Reference, “Governorate elections held in Iraq on 31 January 2005”
Ministry of Displacement and Migration & International Organization for Migration, “Returnee Monitoring and Needs Assessments Tabulation Report,” September 2008
Roggio, Bill, “Iran’s Ramazan Corps and the ratlines into Iraq,” Long War Journal.org, 12/5/07
- “Report: Iraqi security forces preparing operation against Mahdi Army in Maysan,” Long War Journal.org, 6/12/08
- “Report: Sadr to extend cease-fire,” Long War Journal.org, 2/21/08
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/08
Tehran Times, “Iran, Iraq to create 3 free zones,” 9/13/08
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