Baghdad Failing To Invest In Its Future

Iraq's Presidential Council just vetoed the 2009 budget, and then passed it. Each year spending has increased, and Baghdad has been able to expend about the same percentage, but almost all of this is on operational costs like salaries, pensions, goods and services. The capital budget, which includes investing in infrastructure, vehicles, etc., is hardly spent at all. After decades of war, sanctions, and the U.S. invasion, Iraq needs billions to rebuild and move forward. The government has largely failed at this task, and cannot expect American or foreign funds to make up for their lack of diligence anymore.

Each year since 2005 when Iraq was given back its official sovereignty its revenues and spending have increased. In 2005 Iraq earned $24.1 billion and spent $17.6 billion of it. By 2008 income had increased to $67.8 billion thanks to the skyrocketing price of oil, while expenditures had gone up to $49.5 billion. The 2009 budget is at $58.5 billion.

Iraq Revenues, Spending And Surpluses 2005-2008

	2005	2006	2007	2008	Total 2005-2008
Total Revenues	$24.1 bil	$32 bil	$39.9 bil	$67.8 bil	$163.7 bil
Expenditures	$17.6 bil	$22.8 bil	$26.6 bil	$49.5 bil	$116.5 bil
Surplus	$6.5 bil	$9.2 bil	$13.3 bil	$29.0 bil	$47.3 bil

From 2005-2007 90% of Iraq's spending has been on its operational budget, and only 10% on capital projects. In 2007 for example, Baghdad spent 80% of its $29 billion operational budget, but only 28% of its $12 billion capital one. This is the major reason why Iraq has ended up with large surpluses, which by 2008 stood at around $29 billion. The situation is even worse when broken down by ministry. The main ministries that bring in revenues and provide services such as oil, electricity, and water, only spent 11% of their $8 billion capital budget in 2007. In 2008 they were able to more than double their spending to 23%, but that's still a miniscule amount. The major causes are lack of trained staff, a weak procurement process, the inability to plan and carry out strategies, and violence.

Capital Spending By Iraq 2005-2007

	Appropriated	Spent	% of Total
2005	$6.3 bil	$1.4 bil	23%
2006	$8.3 bil	$1.6 bil	19%
2007	$12.1 bil	$3.4 bil	28%

The U.S. has also far outspent Iraq in reconstruction. The Americans have expended 87% of the money it has allocated for rebuilding Iraq, totaling about $9.5 billion of $10.9 billion since 2003. Iraq on the other hand has only spent 12%, approximately $2 billion, of $17.2 billion. Iraq has also not maintained projects the Americans have built and turned over to them.

Comparing U.S. and Iraqi Allocations and Spending For Reconstruction

	U.S. Fiscal Years 2003-2008	U.S. Fiscal Years 2003-June 2008	Iraqi 2005-2008	Iraqi 2005-2008
Sectors	Allocated	Spent	Allocated	Spent
Oil	$2.7 bil	$2.5 bil	$10.8 bil	$700,000
Electricity	$5.3 bil	$4.8 bil	$5.2 bil	$800,000
Water resources	$2.9 bil	$2.2 bil	$1.3 bil	$600,000
Totals	$10.9 bil	$9.5 bil	$17.2 bil	$2.0 bil

The reason why Iraq's inability to invest in its infrastructure is important is because the country desperately needs billions of dollars to develop. Oil is Iraq's main source of revenue. In 2008 it earned $68 billion, $62 billion of which came from petroleum. According to the State and Defense Departments not enough money is being spent on the industry to sustain output. In March 2009 Iraq produced 2.36 million barrels per day, but that's still below the estimated 2.5 million barrels per day average before the U.S. invasion. Production has also fluctuated up and down each month. According to the Oil Ministry it needs $25-$75 billion to reach its target of 6 million barrels per day. Last year the Ministry only spent $421 million of its capital budget, a mere 19% of the total. Electricity production only meets 52% of demand. There are still blackouts and access to power varies greatly from city to city, neighborhood to neighborhood. Like oil, electricity production is up overall, but the Electricity Ministry estimates it needs $27 billion to meet the entire country's demand by 2015. The U.S. thinks it may need twice that much. The same goes for the water system. 8.1 million Iraqis have access to potable water, but that's short of the American goal of 8.5 million. The U.N. says that 40% of children do not have safe drinking water. The country's treatment plants are also only operating at 17% of capacity. The lack of clean water led to cholera outbreaks in 2007 and 2008. The World Bank estimates that Iraq needs $14.4 billion to fix the water system. In total, that amounts to $66.4-$143.4 billion in investments.

Iraq's ability to spend its overall budget has improved each year, but its capital expenditures remain anemic. Almost all of the government's money has gone towards salaries, pensions, and services. It has spent more and more of its capital budget, but it's still a small percentage of the total. This comes at a time when the U.S. is almost finished transferring reconstruction to Iraqi control. No more major American or foreign aid is expected for Iraq in the future. The billions of dollars needed to improve the oil business and improve services will have to be largely self-generated, borrowed from international financial institutions, or gained from foreign companies. This will pose serious barriers to raising the standard of living for the average Iraqi as it will probably take several years for the government to ever learn how to spend its capital budget and work out successful deals with international corporations.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “PB turns down federal budget,” 3/26/09

O’Hanlon, Michael and Campbell, Jason, “Iraq Index,” Brookings Institution, 2/26/09

Department of Defense, “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq,” March 2009

United States Government Accountability Office, “IRAQ Key Issues for Congressional Oversight,” March 2009

January 2009 U.N. Report On Iraq Refugee Returns

In January 2009 the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees released a report detailing the latest numbers it had on Iraq's displacement and refugee crisis. There are still Iraqis losing their homes, but at a much lower rate. The big issue now is the plight of those that have left, and those that are returning.

There are approximately 2.8 million internally displaced Iraqis and 2 million that have fled to other countries. There were 1.2 million internal refugees in the country before 2006. After the bombing of the Shiite Samarra shrine in February 2006 that started the sectarian war, 1.6 million more were forced into internal exile. Only 1% of that number was displaced in 2008 however, showing the improved security situation. Most of those displaced after Samarra came from Baghdad, 64%, and Diyala, 19%. Central Iraq accounted for 58% of displacement, compared to 15% for the north and 27% for the south, whereas those two regions had the most internal refugees before the U.S. invasion due to Saddam's policies.

Region	2003	2003-2005	Post Feb. 2006	Totals
North	633,714	798	237,766	872,278
Center	44,394	129,966	938,566	1,112,926
South	343,854	59,382	454,051	857,287
Grand Total	1,021,962	190,146	1,630,383	2,842,491

Displacement within and out of Iraq followed certain patterns. Sunnis moved from the Shiite south to central and western provinces, while Shiites left Sunnis areas in central and western Iraq for the south. Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, and Christians have all tried to enter Kurdistan because it offered more stability and less violence. There are also trends in Iraq's refugees. 55% of those registered by the United Nations are Sunnis. Another 18-20% are minority groups such as Christians, Mandeans, Yazidis, Turkmen, and Shabaks, even though they only make up 3-4% of Iraq's population.

Iraq's internal refugees face a number of problems. They lack access to food, shelter, water, sanitation, health, and jobs. The International Organization for Migration has conducted detailed surveys of these needs. Women that have lost their homes have been hit especially hard. Even with the lessoning of violence, many families have not been able to go back to their homes. The government is also threatening Iraqis that are squatting with evictions. The UNHCR believes that there are up to 250,000 Iraqis living illegally in public buildings.

The biggest change in Iraq's refugee crisis is that some have begun to return. This began in the summer of 2007 when it was reported that Iraqi refugees from Syria were coming back. So far only a small percentage of the 4.8 million have made this decision, but the rate is increasing. The government has been encouraging this process, and passed Executive Orders 101 and 262 in 2008 that offered money to return. This process may now be ending however as the Ministry of Displacement and Migration has stopped registering Iraqis that have gone back, which was necessary to receive any payments.

The number of displaced coming back has changed month to month. In 2008, August and September saw the highest rates with around 39,950 and 42,610 returns respectively, but that then dropped off to 11,260 in November and 11,910 in December. Almost eight times as many internally displaced have come back compared to refugees. For all of 2008 195,240 displaced returned, compared to 25,370 refugees, for a total of 220,610. Baghdad and Diyala, which saw the most displacement, has seen the most returnees.

U.N.'s Refugee/Displaced Return Estimates 2008

Month	Internally Displaced	Refugees	Total
Jan.-June	66,340	9,000	75,340
July	22,390	2,310	24,700
August	38,380	1,570	39,950
September	38,390	4,220	42,610
October	12,300	2,540	14,840
November	7,620	3,640	11,260
December	9,820	2,090	11,910
2008 TOTALS	195,240	25,370	220,610

Iraq is also home to 39,811 refugees from other countries. There are 12,567 Palestinians living in Baghdad and the Al Waleed Refugee Camp, 15,755 Kurds displaced from neighboring countries, 10,904 Iranians, many of which are in Kurdistan and do not want to go back, 580 Syrians that are afraid of being arrested if they return, and five Egyptians who are married to Palestinians. 2,405 have asked for asylum in Iraq, 1,022 Iranians, 1,001 Syrian Kurds, 380 Turkish Kurds, and two Ethiopians.

The bombing of the Samarra shrine in 2006 made a bad refugee problem turn into a crisis. Iraq already had several thousand Shiites and Kurds who were displaced due to Saddam's policies even before the U.S. invaded. The war and subsequent sectarian fighting added another three million displaced. While over 200,000 have returned, that is still a small amount compared to the total. Those that have gone back face further problems as not all have access to their homes, or jobs and basic services, and some have become displaced again. The U.N. and other humanitarian groups have been overwhelmed by this predicament, and the government has appeared more concerned about its image than really helping these people. That means this humanitarian catastrophe is likely to continue for several more years.

SOURCES

Human Rights First, “How to Confront the Iraqi Refugee Crisis,” December 2008

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “Humanitarian Update Iraq February 2009,” 2/28/09

UNHCR, “UNHCR Iraq Operation At A Glance – January 2009,”1/9/09

Iraq Disappearing From America’s News

For the first time since 2002 Iraq did not reach the top 10 news stories in America according to the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism. For the four weeks from March 2 to 29, 2009 Iraq did not reach the top ten once. The Pew Center covers stories across newspapers, radio, the internet, and network and cable TV. As in previous months the top news stories were the economic crisis and the new Obama administration. For March 2 to 8, Iraq only reached number 6 on the radio, but was absent from the other outlets. That week the news was on the withdrawal of U.S. troops. The next week, March 9-15, Iraq was number 5 and 10 in newspapers, and number eight online, but didn’t rank on any other form of media. The sentencing of Muntader al-Ziadi, the Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at President Bush, and Saddam Hussein’s former Foreign Minister Tariq Azziz occurred then, along with some mass casualty bombings. From March 16 to 22, the war got into the newspapers at Number 6, and network TV at number 7, and number 10 on Cable TV, but that wasn’t enough to crack the overall top 10. That week former Vice President Cheney claimed success in Iraq in an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, and it was the 6th anniversary of the U.S. invasion. In the last week of the month Iraq was number 8 in the newspapers and network TV. The arrest of a Sons of Iraq leader in Baghdad, followed by a shootout with Iraqi forces marked that period.



U.S. coverage of Iraq has been on a steady decline since 2007. The American media has largely followed policy makers and politicians when reporting on the war. In May 2007, Congress stopped discussing legislating a withdrawal of U.S. forces, and in September General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker testified in Washington on the Surge. After that news on the war dropped to less than 10% of news coverage. (See graph above) In 2008 major media organizations began withdrawing their staff and reporters from the country, and that trend continued into 2009. As a result, Iraq dropped to 1-3% of U.S. reporting. Now the war is even less than 1% of all stories.

The lack of politicians talking about Iraq on a consistent basis, the economic crisis, the change in administration, the new emphasis upon Afghanistan, along with the lack of reporters in Iraq have all led to March being the first month in over seven years that the war has not been a top story in America. This is something that has been long predicted here. Over 100,000 U.S. troops are expected to be in the country until early next year, and all U.S. forces are not due to depart until December 31, 2011. Dramatic events like bombings or Iraqi elections will still get coverage, but the everyday experiences of both Iraqis and Americans will largely be a fading story for many U.S. news outlets, and hence for the American public.

For more on American reporting on the war click on the "reporting" label at the bottom of the post.

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Former Saddam Cabinet Minister Sentenced,” 3/11/09

CBS/AP, “Iraqis Burn Flags To Mark 6th Anniversary,” 3/20/09

Gold, Matea, “Show Tracker: What you’re watching,” Show Tracker: What You’re Watching Blog, Los Angeles Times, 1/7/09

Kelly, Mary Louise, “A Big Move: Getting Military Equipment Out Of Iraq,” All Things Considered, NPR, 3/2/09

Londono, Ernesto and Paley, Amit, “Western Journalists in Iraq Stage Pullback of Their Own,” Washington Post, 10/11/08

Mohammed, Riyadh and Ali, Anwar, “Iraqi Shoe Thrower Gets Three Years,” New York Times, 3/12/09

Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism, “PEJ News Coverage Index, March 2-8, 2009: Falling Stocks and Rising Rush Fuel The News,” 3/9/09
- “PEJ News Coverage Index, March 9-15, 2009: Media Focus On Economic Villains: Bonuses, Bernie and Blather,” 3/16/09
- “PEJ News Coverage Index, March 16-22, 2009: One Story Dominates: AIG in the Crosshairs,” 3/23/09
- “PEJ News Coverage Index, March 23-29: Geithner’s Plan Drives the Narrative,” 3/30/09

Ricchiardi, Sherry, “How the Media Abandoned Iraq,” American Journalism Review, June/July 2008

Rubin, Alissa and Nordland, Rod, “Troops Arrest an Awakening Council Leader in Iraq, Setting Off Fighting,” New York Times, 3/28/09

Rubin, Alissa and Santora, Marc, “Bomber Kills Dozens in Iraq as Fears of New Violence Rise,” New York Times, 3/10/09

Stetler, Brian, “TV News Winds Down Operation on Iraq War,” New York Times, 12/29/08

Sulzberger, A.G., “Cheney Says Obama Has Increased Risks,” New York Times, 3/15/09

Operation New Hope In Mosul – Update

In mid-February 2009 Operation New Hope was announced, the third security crackdown in the city of Mosul carried out by Baghdad. Unlike the previous two, this one includes a large American contingent. By the beginning of May there were 5,000 U.S. troops and 36,000 Iraqi soldiers, National Police, and police taking part in New Hope. It has been dubbed the last major battle the Americans will be involved in before they withdraw. A month and half in however, and there has been little progress in reducing casualties in the area.

U.S. and Iraqi forces are trying to work closely in New Hope, but there are tensions. The U.S. commander in the city has allowed Iraqi officers into his command center. This is one of the few instances this has happened, as many American officers still do not trust divulging details about their operations to their Iraqi counterparts. In Mosul this is especially touchy as three times Iraqi soldiers or police have shot at American soldiers since November 2008. The last such incident occurred on February 24, 2009 when an Iraqi police officer shot and killed a U.S. soldier, an interpreter, and two Iraqi policemen. Three other American soldiers and another interpreter were wounded as well.

Following the Surge model from Baghdad, U.S. and Iraqi forces are setting up small outposts throughout the city, and trying to supply essential services. U.S. soldiers are trying to work on water, sanitation, and trash pick up projects, as well as providing employment through these programs. Iraqi and U.S. soldiers have also been going door-to-door asking residents about their wants and needs. The U.S. has tried a similar strategy before in 2007 and 2008. The number of attacks actually increased from December 2007 to February 2008, but then took a steady decline. As noted before, the number of casualties reported in the press stayed about the same for most of 2008. It wasn’t until November of that year that casualties dipped below an average of 3 per day. The drop coincided with the second Iraqi led-operation in the city, Mother of Two Springs II aimed at protecting the city’s Christians after hundreds fled following attacks on their community, and the run-up to the January 2009 provincial elections. Since that month there have been an average of around 2 deaths per day and approximately 5 wounded. Operation New Hope has not changed those numbers.

Selected Casualty Numbers For Mosul Based Upon Press Reports

March 2009
86 attacks/incidents – 2.77 attacks & incidents/day
69 deaths – 2.22 deaths/day
169 wounded – 5.45 wounded/day

February 2009
81 attacks/incidents – 2.89 attacks & incidents/day
58 deaths – 2.0 deaths/day
111 wounded – 3.96 wounded/day

January 2009
52 attacks/incidents – 1.67 attacks & incidents/day
56 deaths – 1.80 killed/day
85 wounded – 2.74 wounded/day

December 2008
65 attacks/incidents – 2.09 attacks & incidents/day
68 deaths – 2.19 deaths/day
181 wounded – 5.83 wounded/day

November 2008
65 attacks/incidents – 2.16 attacks & incidents/day
53 deaths – 1.76 deaths/day
249 wounded – 8.3 wounded/day

October 2008
92 attacks/incidents – 2.96 attacks & incidents/day
112 deaths – 3.61 deaths/day
188 wounded – 6.06 wounded/day

Because of the lack of security in the city, Mosul has been designated as one area U.S. forces are unlikely to withdraw from after the June 30, 2009 deadline for American troops to be out of Iraqi cities. It took around one year and several operations for attacks to come down in the city. The police there are still undermanned and lack equipment. Unemployment is extremely high in certain areas, and services are poor due to the violence. More importantly, the city is a flashpoint between Kurds and Arabs, which is why the insurgency has been able to maintain a foothold there, playing on the fears Arabs have of Kurdish expansion. After that being said, there are fewer casualties in the city than before. It has been a long and difficult slog to achieve that however, and there is now a deadline for U.S. forces to be entirely out of the country. The question is whether they can keep up their operations during their drawdown long enough to allow for some kind of power sharing between Arabs and Kurds there. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s maneuvers against the Kurds in Mosul, and the election of the al-Hadbaa in Ninewa with their anti-Kurdish campaign do not point to this happening anytime soon.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Iraq’s al-Maliki: US will stay in insecure areas,” Associated Press, 3/15/09

Arraf, Jane, “US general: American forces may not leave key Iraqi cities,” Christian Science Monitor, 3/27/09

Associated Press, “Iraq: Suicide bomber kills seven, wounds 17 in Mosul,” 3/31/09
- “Iraqis fear U.S. pullout of volatile Mosul,” 3/9/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 cops, civilian wounded in bomb blast in Mosul,” 3/11/09
- “2 policemen killed separately in Ninewa,” 3/12/09
- “2nd car bomb blast leaves 6 wounded in Mosul,” 3/5/09
- “3 civilians wounded in Mosul blast,” 3/2/09
- “3 servicemen killed, wounded by IED,” 3/30/09
- “3rd Mosul car bomb blast wounds woman, policeman,” 3/5/09
- “4 injured in Mosul blast,” 3/28/09
- “Body of Iraqi soldier found near Mosul,” 3/22/09
- “Body of retired officer found in central Mosul,” 3/21/09
- “Body of Yazidi civilian found in Mosul,” 3/25/09
- “Bomb explodes in central Mosul without casualties,” 3/4/09
- “Car bomb, IED defused in Mosul,” 3/25/09
- “Car bomb leaves 13 casualties in Mosul,” 3/11/09
- “Car bomb wounds 15 civilians in Mosul,” 3/29/09
- “Civilian gunned down in Mosul,” 3/3/09
- “Civilian killed, body found separately in Ninewa,” 3/26/09
- “Civilian wounded in hand-grenade blast,” 3/26/09
- “College student killed in clashes with gunmen in Mosul,” 3/26/09
- “Cop gunned down in central Mosul,” 3/24/09
- “Explosion wounds 4 policemen in northern Mosul,” 3/31/09
- “Gunmen kill policewoman in Mosul,” 3/14/09
- “Gunmen shoot government employee in Mosul,” 3/18/09
- “Gunmen wound 3 civilians in Mosul,” 3/9/09
- “IED kills soldier in Mosul,” 3/5/09
- “IED wounds Barazani’s KDP member,” 3/6/09
- “Mosul blast casualties up to 45,” 3/31/09
- “Retired officer gunned down in Mosul,” 3/7/09
- “Security forces set off bomb in Mosul,” 3/8/09
- “State employee gunned down in Mosul,” 3/29/09
- “Student gunned down in Mosul,” 3/8/09
- “U.S. base in Mosul rocketed,” 3/3/09
- “Unknown corpse found in Mosul,” 3/19/09
- “Urgent/Suicide car bomb explosion leaves 12 casualties in Ninewa,” 3/4/09
- “Wedding blast wounds 9 in Mosul,” 3/10/09
- “Woman killed in eastern Mosul,” 3/24/09
- “Young man gunned down in Mosul,” 3/4/09

Colvin, Marie, “Al-Qaeda is driven from Mosul bastion after bloody last stand,” Sunday Times of London, 7/6/08

Druzin, Heath, “Coalition forces fight in insurgent stronghold while residents urge U.S. troops to leave Mosul,” Stars and Stripes, 3/8/09
- “Iraqis taking the lead? Yes and no,” Stars and Stripes, 2/22/09
- “Mosul is still open for business,” Stars and Stripes, 3/8/09
- “Shooting of four U.S. troops highlights trust issues between two forces,” Stars and Stripes, 2/27/09

Gordon, Michael, “Pushed Out of Baghdad, Insurgents Move North,” New York Times, 12/6/07

Hamilton, Eric, “The Fight for Mosul,” Institute for the Study of War, 4/29/08

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 23 March 2009,” 3/23/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 5 March 2009,” 3/5/09

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Saturday 7 March 2009,” 2/7/09

Issa, Sahar and Kadhim, Hussein, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 16 March 2009,” 3/16/09
Issa, Sahar and Kadhim, Hussein, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 26 March 2009,” 3/26/09
- Hussein, “Roundup of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 24 March 2009,” 3/24/09

Kadhim, Hussein, “Roundup of Daily Violence in Iraq-Monday 2 March 2009,” 3/2/09
- “Roundup of Daily Violence in Iraq-Monday 9 March 2009,” 3/9/09

Kukis, Mark, “Is Mosul on the Mend?” Time, 3/9/08

KUNA, “Two Iraqi women dead, eight policemen injured in separate incidents in Iraq,” 3/29/09

Monsters & Critics, “One Iraqi civilian killed, seven injured in Mosul blasts,” 3/25/09

Multi-National Force – Iraq, “Attack in Mosul kills U.S. Soldier,” 3/3/09

Paley, Amit, “Iraqis Joining Insurgency Less for Cause Than Cash,” Washington Post, 11/20/07

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 4,” 3/4/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 7,” 3/7/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 9,” 3/9/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 10,” 3/10/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 16,” 3/16/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 19,” 3/19/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 22,” 3/22/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 23,” 3/23/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 25,” 3/25/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 26,” 3/26/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 28,” 3/28/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 30,” 3/30/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, March 31,” 3/31/09

Roggio, Bill, “Walling Mosul,” Long War Journal.org, 3/11/08

Salaheddin, Sinan, “Officials: Bombs kill couple, policeman in Iraq,” Associated Press, 3/18/09

Xinhua, “Suicide car bombing kills policeman in N Iraq,” 3/18/09
- “Three Iraqis killed in attacks,” 3/25/09
- “Three people killed in northern Iraq,” 3/18/09

Yacoub, Sameer, “US, Iraqi forces launch anti-al-Qaida offensive,” Associated Press, 2/22/09

February 2009 U.N. Humanitarian Report On Iraq

At the end of February 2009 the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs released its latest progress report on Iraq. This paper covers refugees, returns, prisoners, casualties, measles, and the plight of Iraq’s women.

The Displaced

The major issue in the second half of 2008 going into 2009 is the return of Iraq’s refugees. The numbers that have come back is still a small percentage of the total, estimated at over 4 million, but they are increasing. The vast majority is made up of internally displaced. In January 2009 the Iraqi Ministry of Displacement and Migration registered approximately 4,600 returnees. 3,590 of them were displaced, while 1,010 were refugees coming back from other countries. This was more than a 50% decrease from December 2008 when 11,910 Iraqis were recorded coming back. 9,820 were displaced and 2,090 were refugees. In January Baghdad saw the most returns with 44% of the total. All of them were displaced. Ninewa with 13%, Diyala with 11%, all displaced, and Najaf at 8%, which received a mix of displaced and refugees followed it. Most of the refugees, 370 of them, came from Iran. The province also accounted for 37% of refugee returns in that month. Most returnees from abroad came from Iran, the U.S., Syria, Jordan, and Sweden, in that descending order.

United Nations’ Estimates On Iraqi Returns – January 2009

Displaced Returns:
Baghdad 2,000
Ninewa 590
Diyala 500
Wasit 250
Basra 120
Babil 100
Maysan 10
Salahaddin 10
Dhi Qar 10

Refugee Returns:
Najaf 370
Basra 220
Babil 110
Karbala 90
Wasit 90
Maysan 60
Qadisiyah 20
Muthanna 20
Irbil 20
Dhi Qar 10

The number of Iraqis that have returned is over 200,000. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported that 221,260 Iraqis returned in 2008. That was an average of 18,438 per month. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) counted around 296,592 people. The IOM said that 31,521 families went to Baghdad, 8,818 went to Diyala, and 4,542 returned to Anbar.

As reported before, the IOM has done extensive surveying of Iraq’s displaced. Their latest data from February found that 36% of returning Iraqis did so because of the improved security situation. Another 36% said they returned because of a combination of their hard living conditions and better security. 69% of returnees were displaced within their home province, 20% came back from another governorate, and 11% were refugees in another country.

To encourage Iraqis to come back, the government has been offering cash payments, which may now be ending. In January 2009 the Ministry of Displacement and Migration registered 12,969 returning families, who then became eligible for $870 from the government for coming back. The IOM thinks that the Ministry has registered only 26% of those that have returned. Only around 22,000 displaced families in total have received their money. The problem now is that the authorities have stopped signing up returnees. The government said that they had one year to register, and because of the improved security most displaced have gone back home. That’s obviously not true, and puts the whole motivation behind the payments in question. Has the government run out of funds, was it simply a publicity stunt, or just meant to create an incentive to get the process of return going? Whatever is the answer, on February 12 the Ministry stopped registering the displaced. Some provinces had stopped doing so earlier. Tamim for example ceased registration on February 2, and Kurdistan stopped on January 1. The Ministry is now supposed to focus upon monitoring those that have already gone back rather than those that are still in the process of doing so or considering it.

25% of the displaced say housing is their greatest concern. 59% of those surveyed by the IOM said they are renting, 22% said they live in a collective settlement or are squatting, 18% live with another family, and 1% are in tents. Rents are also going up, placing a financial strain on the displaced. The reason why many have not gone back is because they can’t go to their homes. Only 16% of the displaced since February 2006 have access to their houses. 38% said they don’t know if they can go back. 39% said they don’t want to go back. Of those 22% said they want to stay where they are, and 17% would like to move to another country. That still means the vast majority however, 61%, would like to go back some time.

The displaced also lack basic services. 19% of those displaced since February 2006 say they don’t have access to the government’s food ration system. 44% said they only have periodic access. The displaced also lack jobs, electricity, and health care.

Iraqi Prisoners

Under the Status of Forces Agreement the U.S. is in the process of transferring all of its prisoners to Iraqi control or setting them free. The U.S. military said they are releasing around 50 prisoners a day since the beginning of January 2009. That has caused a decrease in the number they hold from around 26,000 in 2007 to approximately 14,000 in 2008. Others are being handed over to the Iraqi authorities.

Violence

Violence in Iraq has seen a steady decline. The number of casualties in February 2009 was lower than in the previous month. In February an average of 5 civilians were killed per day. That was down from an average of 13 per day in 2008. The number of civilians killed dropped from 192 in January to 164 in February. The number of wounded also declined from 591 in January to 516 in February. February’s numbers did not include 48 bodies found in the streets and six government officials killed. That meant in total 395 people died in that month. The majority of the casualties happened during the Arba’een religious ceremony where there were several attacks costing the lives of at least 84 people. According to the U.N. 11,230 people were killed in 2008, 4,663 of which were civilians, and 18,251 were wounded, including 12,660 civilians.

Measles

As recently reported here, a measles epidemic began in 2008, and is now getting worse. The Ministry of Health reports that that there are cases in 13 of Iraq’s 19 provinces. Last year there were a total of 8,134 cases, but in the first nine months of 2009 there have already been 8,411 more. Children are the most vulnerable, and the movement of people with the improved security has helped spread the disease. Many kids have not been vaccinated over the last several years as well because of the security situation, which has made the situation worse. Measles is now spreading north to Sulaymaniya, Irbil and Dohuk, and south to Najaf and Maysan. This is putting up to 800,000 children at risk.

Iraq’s Women

In 2009 the U.N. is trying to focus upon the country’s women. The U.N. is worried that the violence and war has severely set back their status. Women are more likely to end up poor, be unemployed, and lack food, and other basic necessities. 1 in 10 families are headed by women, and 80% of those are widows, having lost their husbands to the fighting. Only 17% of women have jobs or are looking for them compared to 81% of men. Illiteracy is also high, affecting 24% of women over 10 years old compared to 11% for men. Many girls have also stopped going to school because of the violence.

Oxfam International recently conducted a survey of 1,700 Iraqi women that highlighted their problems. They questioned women from Baghdad, 35%, Basra, 19.5%, Ninewa 19.5%, Tamim, 13%, and Najaf, 13%, who were 21-65 years old. 25% were widows. 60% said they received no aid from humanitarian groups. 76% of widows declared they got no help from the government. 45% said their income had declined from 2006-2008, and 30% said it was the same. 40% thought security was worse in 2008 compared to 2007, 38% said it was improving, and 22% said it was the same. 55% said they had been displaced at least once since 2003. As a sign of this almost 50% said they were sharing their home with another family. Many lacked basic services. One quarter said they had no daily access to water, and almost 50% said they had no potable water. 69% said their water situation had gotten worse since 2006. 1/3 said they lacked power for more than 3 hours a day, the other 2/3 said they only had power for six hours or less. 50% said their health care was worse in 2008 compared to 2006-2007. 79% received their food rations, but 45% said it was irregular.

Conclusion

The humanitarian report shows the changes and continued problems facing Iraq. Refugees and the displaced are returning, but in small numbers compared to the total. Violence is down, and looks to be getting better in 2009. At the same time several million Iraqis are still without their homes, and face increasing problems such as jobs and housing. The war has also disrupted the health care system, and set back the country’s women. There is also a measles epidemic that is quickly spreading throughout most of the country. There is still fighting and dying going on in Iraq, but it is receding. That has put humanitarian issues and services to the fore as the country has suffered through decades of war and sanctions, and has yet to recover.

SOURCES

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “Humanitarian Update Iraq February 2009,” 2/28/09

World Health Organization, “Weekly Feedback on Measles in Iraq,” WHO Representative’s Office in Iraq, 3/8/09

Special Inspector General Testifies To Congress

The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) Stuart Bowen recently testified to the House Armed Services Committee on March 25. Much of what he said was based upon SIGIR’s “Hard Lessons” report, which has been partially covered here. The gist of Bowen’s and the paper’s findings are that the U.S. went into Iraq not ready for the task of rebuilding the country. When security quickly deteriorated, so did the reconstruction project. The Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) set out to reform the entire country whether it wanted to or not, yet never had the money, personnel, oversight, or coordination to do it. Much of the work was done on an ad hoc basis, did not pay attention to the security situation, or the needs of Iraqis. The CPA also never adapted to the situation in the country. It wasn’t until 2007 and the Surge that violence was down enough that some effective reconstruction work was possible. Overall, Bowen believes that the U.S. failed to meet its goals of rebuilding the country due to poor planning and unrealistic goals.

The SIGIR was created in January 2004. Immediately after it started its work it began to find problems with the reconstruction effort. The “Hard Lessons” report detailed much of what they found. In the fall of 2001 post-war planning for Iraq began in the U.S. It was based upon a best-case scenario where the Americans would be greeted as liberators, the U.S. would take care of any humanitarian crises and deal with war damage, and then leave. Washington was warned by several different groups several times of the consequences of invading, but their advice was ignored. The U.S. thus set about the largest nation-building project in history completely unaware of what they were getting themselves into. This led to massive waste and many failures.

The U.S. expected Iraq to largely be functioning after the invasion, but instead it fell into immediate chaos. The U.S. was thus stuck running and rebuilding the country, something it had not planned for. It has been paying for these missteps ever since. When the CPA took over Paul Bremer wanted to change every part of the society whether Iraqis were interested or not. This was beyond its capabilities. The CPA effort was largely ad hoc, with programs and goals constantly changing. The Americans were left responding to or ignoring the security situation rather than creating the conditions necessary for successful rebuilding work. In 2004 for example, it started large projects in Fallujah and in Basra in 2005 when they were being run by insurgents and militias that doomed them from the beginning. This didn’t change until 2007 when the Surge finally created enough safe areas to effectively carry out reconstruction.

The result of this lack of planning has been massive cost overruns that Americans are still paying for today. In 2003 the CPA came up with a $20 billion reconstruction plan, ten times larger than the pre-war plans. Today the U.S. has spent $50 billion, 25 times more than the original plan. The insurgency was largely responsible for these huge increases. The U.S. also did not have the personnel, contracts, resources, or doctrine to achieve its goals. That led Bowen to claim that the U.S. has failed at rebuilding Iraq, although it has put the Iraqi security forces back together.

Bowen warned that many of these problems could be repeated in Afghanistan. In 2008 a Special Inspector General was created for that country, and it found many of the same mistakes that happened in Iraq occurring in Afghanistan. The SIGIR emphasized that a well-planned reconstruction program goes hand-in-hand with a successful counterinsurgency campaign.

The SIGIR finished with his suggestions for how the U.S. should proceed in Iraq, and any other efforts in the future. For Iraq Bowen said that the U.S. needs to maintain its personnel there so there is not such a large turnover, the government needs to increase its trained staff for reconstruction, contracts should be re-thought, the capacity of the Iraqis needs to be increased so that they can do their own rebuilding, and the military’s mini-grant program needs to be institutionalized. For nation-building in general the SIGIR said that the U.S. needs to come up with a general strategy for the concept. There also needs to be a high level official in the White House tasked with dealing with the problem. Security needs to be the top priority before effective rebuilding can begin, locals have to have the institutions and bureaucracy to eventually take over the effort themselves, and their needs should lead the rebuilding. The U.S. also needs better contracts, more oversight, and staff to create background knowledge of wherever the U.S. may need to go. The title of the SIGIR’s review of Iraq is called “Hard Lessons.” Bowen and his fellow inspectors have been detailing the problems there for five years now. The question is if any of these lessons will be integrated into the Washington bureaucracy so that they can be avoided in the future. As Bowen pointed out, many of the same mistakes are already happening in Afghanistan. Will the U.S. be able to recover there in time to not repeat the waste of billions of dollars and failures experienced in Iraq?

SOURCES

Bowen, Stuart, “Effective Counterinsurgency: How the Use and Misuse of Reconstruction Funding Affects the War Effort in Iraq and Afghanistan,” Committee on Armed Services, United States House of Representatives, 3/25/09

Special Inspector General For Iraq Reconstruction, “Hard Lessons,” 1/22/09

Measles Outbreak In Iraq

In the summer of 2008 Iraq was hit by a cholera epidemic. Now the country is facing a new health crisis, this time from measles. The United Nations IRIN news agency reported on March 25 that 3 babies in Qadisiyah had died from the disease. Measles is transmitted through breathing or contact with fluid from the nose and mouth. It can lead to blindness, encephalitis, and pneumonia. The first cases were detected in the very beginning of 2008, but didn't take off until the summer. Three waves of infection have swept across the country since then with the largest occurring during the first nine weeks of 2009. The government is trying to respond with a vaccination program, but it has been haphazard, and limited by security concerns.

The United Nations was the first agency to warn of this new epidemic. The last United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and UNICEF reports on Iraq both talked about the spread of measles, and now the World Health Organization has released a comprehensive report on it.

The measles outbreak started slowly in the beginning of 2008, picked up momentum during the summer, and then took off in late 2008/early 2009. The first cases, 5 total, were reported in week one of 2008. This was the beginning of three waves of measles that have swept the country. The first lasted until late May 2008, the second up to the end of September, and the third is still on going. Each lasted around 19 weeks in duration.

Measles were first detected in central Iraq, and is now moving north and south. The initial cases were found in Anbar and Salahaddin, and then spread to Ninewa and Tamim. Those provinces lacked adequate vaccination programs because of the lack of security. The government started an emergency response effort in those four areas, which were effective in stopping the spread of measles. However shots were not given in the rest of the country, which led to the outbreak spreading to Basra, Najaf, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Maysan, Karbala, Diyala, Qadisiyah, Babil, Wasit, and the three provinces of Kurdistan.

The number of cases has more than doubled since 2008. In that year 8,134 people were infected. In just the first nine weeks of 2009, 8,411 new cases have been reported. In 2008 less than 140 cases were found each week, compared to almost 1,000 per week in the beginning of 2009. In the first nine weeks of 2009 there were 68 cases in the three provinces of Kurdistan, 276 in Anbar, Salahaddin, Ninewa and Tamim, 887 in Basra, Maysan, Dhi Qar, and Muthanna. Ninewa has been hit the hardest with 2,395 in the Karkh and Resafa districts, and an additional 235 in the rest of the province.

The World Health Organization (WHO) notes that the whole affair could have been avoided if there was an effective, nationwide vaccination program in place. Instead, the lack of security has meant only limited coverage. Those most affected are children under five years old, 64% of the total, showing that there has been a lack of vaccinations over the last four years. The WHO itself couldn't provide as much support as it hoped for during that time, because it and all the other U.N. agencies have not been able to raise enough money to cover all of its activities. Iraq's national health system has also suffered during the violence. As a recent public opinion poll of Iraqis found, 60% said medical care was bad in their neighborhood. Hopefully Iraq and the U.N. have enough resources to expand their vaccination program to cover the entire country of this outbreak could become worse, but that might be difficult in the current financial climate.

Measles Cases 2008 to first 9 weeks of 2009

Province	2008 cases	2009 Cases	Total Existing Cases	% of Cases
Ninewa	2,630	1,816	2,668	23%
Qadisiyah	1,076	654	1,408	13%
Babil	843	1,104	1,246	11%
Anbar	1,056	15	1,070	10%
Wasit	268	1,852	978	9%
Karbala	711	377	902	8%
Salahaddin	637	14	637	6%
Dhi Qar	482	248	577	5%
Muthanna	402	172	518	5%
Ninewa	364	235	466	4%
Tamim	344	12	350	3%
Maysan	173	278	256	2%
Diyala	80	651	197	2%
Basra	113	189	191	2%
Najaf	68	147	141	1%
Sulaymaniya	30	35	44	0.4%
Dohuk	28	5	29	0.3%
Irbil	7	28	21	0.3%
Iraq	8,134	8,411	11,233	100%

SOURCES

IRIN, "IRAQ: Three die of measles in Diwaniyah Province," 3/25/09

UNICEF, "UNICEF Humanitarian Action Update Iraq," 2/17/09

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, "Humanitarian Update Iraq, December 2008-January 2009" United Nations, 1/31/09

World Health Organization, "Weekly Feedback on Measles in Iraq," WHO Representative's Office in Iraq, 3/8/09