On April 23, 2009 the Associated Press wrote about its tally for how many Iraqi citizens have been killed since the U.S. invasion. Many of the news wire services have regular reports on Iraqi deaths each month. Most use numbers released by the Iraqi government. Agence France Presse for example prints statistics from the Iraqi Defense, Interior, and Health ministries. The Associated Press is one of the few that keeps its own independent count. They have traditionally depended upon those same ministries as sources, but also look at press reports, and hospital records. Recently the Associated Press was given access to new data collected by the Iraqi Health Ministry, and searched through morgue records along with burials at the Shiite cemetery in the holy Shiite city of Najaf. All together the Associated Press estimated that about 110,600 Iraqis have died since the U.S. invasion. It's speculated that the actual number might be 10-20% higher since many deaths were not recorded. The majority of these, 87,215, were killed since 2005. Out of those 59,957 died during the height of the sectarian war from 2006-2007.
The Associated Press' count is close to other studies on the subject. In 2007 the United Nations' World Health Organization conducted a cluster study estimating that 151,000 Iraqis, including insurgents, died from 2003-2005. The Brookings Institution's Iraq Index, which relies upon press reports and the Pentagon counted 110,387 civilians killed from May 2003 when the invasion ended to March 2009. Iraq Body Count, one of the major sources for casualties in Iraq, found 100,346 dead from March 2003 to April 2009. Icasualties.org is another major organization that keeps track of deaths in Iraq, but they did not start counting Iraqis until 2006.
The most well known study of Iraqi deaths is called the Lancet report by Johns Hopkins University and al-Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. That July 2006 study led by Gilbert Burnham published in the Lancet medical journal claimed that 601,027 Iraqis had died since the U.S. invasion. The report has faced major criticisms since then that puts into question its authenticity. For one its margins of error are so large that its numbers could be off by tens of thousands. The study only polled 1,800 Iraqi families, an estimated 12,800 people out of 29 million total. Some have said that is too small a sample. Others claim the numbers were inflated for political reasons. Most importantly however the American Association for Public Opinion Research asked Burnham in early 2009 to answer some basic inquiries about what questions he asked, the instructions given to Iraqis, etc., and he only gave partial responses. He ended up being censured by the group for not cooperating, and violating basic research standards. The Lancet numbers always seemed incredibly high as it would mean only 1/6 of the deaths were ever reported or found. Where would all the other bodies be? Not to mention that since at the height of the fighting the insurgents and militias wanted people to see the death and destruction to intimidate them and force them out of their neighborhoods it wouldn't make sense to have so many unrecorded casualties.
Grand Totals of Iraqi Deaths
Associated Press (March 30, 2003 to April 2009): 110,600
Brookings Institution (May 2003 to March 2009): 110,387
Iraq Body Count (March 2003 to April 2, 2009): 100,436
Iraqi Civilian Deaths By Month
Brookings Institution Iraq Index 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jan. 831 1,448 1,778 3,500 600 270 Feb. 938 1,599 2,165 2,700 700 230 March 1,190 1,333 2,378 2,400 750 260 April 2,104 1,200 2,284 2,500 950 May 866 1,627 1,777 2,669 2,600 550 June 1,026 1,021 1,517 3,149 1,950 490 July 935 932 1,658 3,590 2,350 500 Aug. 1,292 1,517 3,303 3,009 2,000 450 Sep. 860 1,434 1,964 3,345 1,100 400 Oct. 825 1,329 1,376 3,709 950 350 Nov. 677 2,638 1,640 3,462 750 270 Dec. 817 1,333 1,348 2,914 750 350 Totals: 7,298 16,804 20,163 34,452 24,550 6,360 760 Iraq Body Count 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jan. 568 1,035 1,430 2,806 742 275 Feb. 604 1,201 1,449 2,536 1,007 343 March 3,976 957 786 1,789 2,614 1,538 408 April 3,437 1,256 1,025 1,590 2,436 1,260 20 to 4/2 May 545 619 1,226 2,103 2,766 759 June 593 833 1,215 2,426 2,086 669 July 650 762 1,444 3,159 2,536 583 Aug. 790 823 2,165 2,743 2,325 591 Sep. 553 943 1,330 2,408 1,221 535 Oct. 493 947 1,201 2,924 1,185 527 Nov. 478 1,533 1,208 2,969 1,043 472 Dec. 529 906 996 2,662 903 521 Totals: 12,044 10,751 14,832 27,652 24,457 9,204 1,406
The other major report that came out this month was in the New England Journal of Medicine on the causes of death in Iraq. It looked at casualties from the beginning of the U.S. invasion on March 20, 2003 to March 19, 2008 using data from Iraq Body Count. During that time the group recorded 91,358 Iraqi civilians and police that were killed. The study included police because they are considered normal parts of society, but did not include soldiers, militias, or insurgents. The study discounted prolonged periods of fighting such as the two battles for Fallujah, along with body counts from Iraqi morgues because there was no accounting for how exactly they died. That dropped 30,877 from the original total.
The remaining 60,481 deaths were then broken down by how they were killed, where the event happened, and how many casualties occurred in each incident. That analysis found that executions after being kidnapped or captured were the most common form of death in Iraq, accounting for 19,706 fatalities or 33% of the total. 29% of those showed signs of torture. Small arms fire, 11,877 or 20%, followed by suicide bombers, 8,708 or 14% of the total, were next. The majority of the latter, 5,401, were car bombers. Air attacks by Coalition forces, 3,050 or 5%, roadside bombs, 2,854 or 5%, and mortar fire, 2,079 or 3%, were at the bottom of the list. The most common incidents were gunfire, executions, and roadside bombs, while air attacks with ground fire, 17 civilians per event, bombing runs by planes, 17 civilians per, and suicide bombers on foot, 16 civilians per, resulted in the most casualties. This breakdown shows that while bombings usually make the headlines, more than 50% of the deaths were either up close and personal with executions or when civilians were caught in the cross fire of armed groups.
New England Journal Of Medicine Report On Deaths In Iraq 3/20/03-3/19/08
Method | Total No. of Civilians Killed (% of Total) |
Execution – Any | 19,706 (33%) |
- With torture | 5,760 (10%) |
Gunfire | 11,877 (20%) |
Suicide bomb – Any | 8,708 (14%) |
- Bomber in vehicle | 5,401 (9%) |
- Bomber on foot | 3,293 (5%) |
Vehicle bomb | 5,360 (9%) |
Roadside bomb | 2,854 (5%) |
Mortar fire | 2,079 (3%) |
Air attack without ground fire –Any | 2,363 (4%) |
- Bomb only | 479 (1%) |
- Missile only | 357 (1%) |
Air attack with ground fire | 687 (1%) |
Total for all methods | 60,481 (100%) |
Both of these reports highlight the costs of war in Iraq. While violence has taken a dramatic drop from its height during the sectarian war of 2006-2007, there are still several hundred casualties per month. Millions of Iraqi families have also been affected, either through having lost a loved one or friend, or being forced from their homes because of the fighting. The conflict is likely to last several more years as well, only adding to these counts.
SOURCES
Associated Press, “AP count: Iraqi civilian, security details drop to near lowest level,” 3/3/09
- “Iraq study: Executions are leading cause of death,” 4/15/09
BBC, “Iraqi death researcher censured,” 2/4/09
Gamel, Kim, “Secret Tally Shows 87,000 Iraqis Have Been Killed Since 2005: AP,” 4/23/09
Hicks, Madelyn Hsiao-Rei, Dardagan, Hamit, Serdan, Gabriela Guerrero, Bagnall, Peter, Sloboda, John and Spagat, Michael, “The Weapons That Kill Civilians – Deaths of Children and Noncombatants in Iraq, 2003-2008, Abstract,” New England Journal of Medicine, 4/16/09
Karim, Ammar, “Iraq death toll for February ‘rises to 258,’” Agence France Presse, 3/1/09
O’Hanlon, Michael Campbell, Jason, “Iraq Index,” Brookings Institution, 4/30/09
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