Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Iraqi Deaths Continue To Fluctuate Up And Down

As has been the pattern for 2009, the number of monthly deaths in Iraq continues to go up and down with each month. August saw a large increase compared to July, and then September took a dip. For example, Iraq Body Count, the organization that usually has the highest casualty numbers, recorded 395 deaths in July, 537 in August, and their preliminary figure for September is 296. The three other groups that keep track of deaths in Iraq, icasualties.org, Iraq's ministries, and the Associated Press, while all having different numbers, showed the same fluctuations. For all four, September had the second lowest death total for the year. Last month also had the fewest mass casualty bombings (10 or more dead and wounded) since May 2009. In September there were 13 such attacks, resulting in 70 deaths and 263 wounded. May had 9 bombings, 111 deaths, and 262 wounded.

What the statistics show is that Iraq's militants have lost their luster, and are incapable of sowing the death and destruction they once did even a year ago. In 2009 they have only been able to mount large-scale attacks for one month, and then need to re-group for an entire month before they can do it again. Even then, the months with high numbers of deaths do not reach the levels of 2008. In fact, 2009 has so far, seen fewer casualties then 2003 when the U.S. invaded. For instance, according to Iraq Body Count, there were 3,900 deaths from May to December 2003, for an average of 487.5 per month. In comparison, from January to August 2009 they counted 3,271 deaths, and an average of 408.8 per month. That in no way means that violence in Iraq is at an acceptable level, but it does mean that things have dramatically changed in the country since the height of the sectarian war from 2006-2007.

Iraqi Deaths


Iraq Body Count

icasualties.

Org

Iraqi Ministries

Associated Press

July 08

584

419

465

N/A

Aug. 08

592

311

431

475

Sep. 08

535

366

440

503

Oct. 08

528

288

318

N/A

Nov. 08

473

317

340

N/A

Dec. 08

522

320

316

N/A

Jan. 09

276

187

191

242

Feb. 09

343

202

258

288

March 09

416

278

252

335

April 09

484

347

355

371

May 09

332

188

165

225

June 09

488

367

438

447

July 09

395

240

275

309

Aug. 09

537

439

456

425

Sep. 09

296

158

203

238

Last 6 months of 2008 Average

539.0

336.8

385.0

N/A

First 6 months of 2009 Average

389.8

261.0

276.5

317.5


Number of Bombings and Casualty Statistics – April to July 2009

April 2009

Bombings: 21

Deaths: 198 + 32 Iranians

Wounded: 497 + 105 Iranians + 10 Americans

May 2009

Bombings: 9

Deaths: 111

Wounded: 262

June 2009

Bombings: 14

Deaths: 174

Wounded: 517

July 2009

Bombings: 35

Deaths: 180

Wounded: 655

August 2009

Bombings: 44

Deaths: 359

Wounded: 2,252

September 2009

Bombings: 13

Deaths: 70

Wounded: 263


SOURCES

Agence France Presse, "Iraq attacks death toll rises to eight," 9/4/09

- "Iraq death toll falls by half in September: officials," 10/1/09

Ahmed, Hamid, "Car bomb kills 8 at checkpoint in western Iraq," Associated Press, 9/7/09

Associated Press, "Car bomb kills 7 in market south of Iraqi capital," 9/18/09

- "Iraq: Key figures since the war began," 10/1/09

Aswat al-Iraq, "4 killed, 6 wounded in Kirkuk explosion," 9/9/09

- "Suicide blast in Diala leaves 27 casualties," 9/7/09

icasualties.org

Iraq Body Count

Karadesh, Jomana, "Scores killed in multiple Iraq bombings," CNN, 9/10/09

Press TV, "Bomb attacks claims 13, injures 150 in Iraq," 9/4/09

Reuters, "FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 27," 9/27/09

- "FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 28," 9/28/09

- "Iraq market bombs kill four, wound 29," 9/10/09

Rising, David, "Back-to-back bombs at Shiite shrine," Associated Press, 9/12/09

- "Bombs at Shiite shrine kill 4 Iraqis," Associated Press, 9/13/09

Xinhua, "Car bomb kills two in Iraq," 9/3/09

- "Roadside bomb kills 3 Iraqi soldiers in Baghdad," 9/28/09

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