Brookings Institute: One Year Later

My name is Michael Gaubinger and I am working at the Education for Peace in Iraq Center for the summer of 2008. I will be entering my junior year at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst in the fall and am studying political science.

On Friday, June 13, the Brookings Institute hosted Senior Fellows Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack for a discussion of their recent visit to Iraq. The discussion was called "Iraq: One Year Later." The fact-finding trip was sponsored by the Department of Defense and, while on the trip, they met with American and British soldiers, Iraqi government officials, and other Iraqis. They were unable to meet with very many Iraqi civilians, so their report is not an accurate gauge of the pulse on the street. The discussion began with a brief lecture by each individual about his impressions of the current situation in Iraq. Both men highlighted the improvement in security. O’Hanlon commented that, “This has been the spring of the beginning of the blossoming of the Iraq security forces.” Did the surge work? O’Hanlon says: “Since 2007, Iraq has seen an eighty percent reduction in violence against citizens as measured by the United States military, the Iraqi government, and even some independent sources.” He also stressed the increasing sense of control by the Iraqi government. Great challenges still exist, but the trend-line is positive. Pollack also noted that Iraqi security forces have emerged as a factor for the first time and are now contributing to the coalition effort. There are now 560,000 Iraqi Security Forces and that number is growing by 100,000 troops per year. The training system is working and as many as ten Iraqi brigades are combat ready now. The first wave of problems have been identified and confronted. Now, the United States faces the task of solving the old problems while shifting its focus to the second wave of problems. While the military and police are growing strong, Iraq’s civilian institutions remain weak. The progress of Iraqi regiments and security forces is a large contributor to the reduction in civilian violence in Iraq. For the nearly five-million Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons, a sense of security and safety is a crucial step towards helping these individuals return home.

O’Hanlon and Pollack were asked about the potential for a decrease in American involvement in Iraq through the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. Both agreed that an immediate withdrawal would be dangerous and set back the progress that they described. Furthermore, any reduction in current troop levels must be based on progress and not set to a calendar. O’Hanlon stressed that improvements in the mind-set of the Iraqi government were, in part due to the pressure applied by the Democratic leadership which reinforced the notion that American presence in Iraq must not be taken for granted by the Iraqi government. To ensure continued support from the United States, the Iraqi government must match the effort of the United States. According to Pollack, the general election in Iraq in 2009 represents a key moment politically within Iraq which could either cement and solidify the improvements or reverse them. Therefore, America withdrawal of troops before the elections could have dire consequences.

Planting the seeds of sustainable economic development is one of the first steps in redressing the humanitarian needs of Iraq. O’Hanlon and Pollack were asked about the current state of the Iraqi economy, specifically at the individual level. Oil exports are the backbone of Iraq’s economy, accounting for 98% of its revenue. Although oil exports are high and profitable for Iraq, they painted a bleak picture of life for the average citizen. Healthcare is poor and infant mortality rates are rising. There is not enough potable water. Unemployment is high and, among Iraqi civilians, there are no optimistic expectations of improvement. Due to the poor state of the economy, the return of refugees and internally displaced persons is a greater concern. Pollack suggested that an Iraqi government initiated housing project would help the economy by providing jobs and creating houses for some of the millions of displaced citizens.

A core component of the security improvement is sectarian separation. So far, approximately one-half of the sectarian separation has occurred, but there are some important concerns about the long-term sustainability of the recent improvements, which are due to forced ethnic division. What will happen when the walls are taken down? They were also asked about the current debate over the status of forces agreement. I will discuss this further in an upcoming blog. The final question directly addressed the willingness of the United States to take in refugees from Iraq. In 2008, the United States government promised to take in 7,000 refugees from Iraq, while Sweden is expected to take in 20,000 displaced persons. Pollack credited the low number of Iraqi refugees in America to fears by the Department of Homeland Security that the United States would be letting potential terrorists into the country; fears he categorized as foolish and repugnant.

O’Hanlon and Pollack both agree that Iraq faces many great challenges and unforeseen obstacles, but that the nation shows signs of improvement. Iraqi security forces are standing up as we transition to a plan where Iraqi forces are in the lead with American support, rather than the United States playing the lead role.

The Econ Report: "So How Many Resumes Should I Bring?"

So you don't have a job? Of course you don't. You live in Iraq. Unemployment nationwide has been hovering between a dismal 25% and an astoundingly bad 40% for almost three years now. But don't worry, if you live in the Karkh area of Baghdad you can ignore those numbers. Your unemployment rate is closer to 60%!

Faced with this crisis, the Karkh Chamber of Commerce and Industry NGO recently took some action. I know what you're thinking: there seems to be only one obvious answer to a 60% unemployment figure. And you would be right -- they held a jobs fair!

Over 25 companies and several international businesses showed up, all offering jobs in areas around Baghdad considered relatively safe. What's even smarter is that each company was looking for applicants with residences in the area a particular project would be rooted. With less road to travel, or hardly any at all, workers are much safer from insurgent attacks.

While the notion of a jobs fair in Baghdad might not be the first solution that comes to mind in light of a 60% unemployment figure, consider this: over 4,000 applicants attended (predominantly younger persons with college degrees) and thousands of jobs were offered. With such an enthusiastic turnout, another fair has been scheduled in Rasafa, Baghdad.

"We intended to put companies in direct touch with the unemployed. The unemployed should invest their energy working in their neighborhoods instead of joining the insurgents," said Ali Jamil Latif, head of the NGO. "We believe that when we ensure people have a good life, the security situation will improve." Indeed, EPIC's recent Ground Truth Interview with Professor Eric Davis came to the same conclusion, as well as several non-job-fair solutions for Iraq's unemployment crisis.

We need to remember that economics and security are intertwined. The jobs fair, while such a simple idea, means that the 4,000 persons in attendance are 4,000 persons less likely to be recruited for militias and terrorist groups. A jobs fair could link someone who is increasingly worried about how he or she is going to put food on the table with the means to do so. Unemployment is not just a statistic: it's progress defined.

PHOTO CREDITS: Characters in the comedy cult film Office Space (1999) contemplate what it would be like if they all lost their jobs.

New Pentagon Report

The quarterly Pentagon report "Measuring Stability and Progress in Iraq" was released on Wednesday. Some notes:

• 80 percent of the attacks from November through January were concentrated in four provinces; Baghdad, Anbar, Diyala and Salah ad Din

• The total number of attacks on and casualties suffered by coalition forces, the (Iraqi security forces) and Iraqi civilians for the October through December (2006) reporting period were the highest for any three-month period since 2003

• Coalition forces attract the majority of attacks, but Iraqi security forces and Iraqi civilians suffer most of the casualties.

• Iran and Syria are contributing factor to instability

• In Baghdad, Diyala and Balad, the violence is centered on sectarian divisions and competition for resources. Crime also enters the violence equation in Baghdad.

• Some elements of the situation in Iraq are properly descriptive of a ‘civil war'

• 16 percent of the city's residents say that their current income meets their basic needs

• Inflation in 2006 averaged 50 percent

• "The GOI must, with Coalition and international help, create an effective strategy to provide jobs."

more coming

Jobs...Jobs...Jobs

Last week, in his first press conference since the "surge" began, Gen. Petraeus warned that (1) it’s still too early to tell whether the military surge is working, and (2) regardless how successful the U.S. military may be, the military’s role will always be limited in what it can achieve – i.e. there has to be more progress in the Iraqi economic and political arenas and at best, current U.S. military forces can only buy Iraq more time, they are not the solution.

EPIC has heard from returning soldiers over and over again that the ongoing failure to create jobs is a major contributing factor to violence, including attacks against U.S. forces. According to a recent classified study conducted by the U.S. Defense Department’s Joint Warfare Analysis Center, improving the quality of life of Iraqi citizens reduces the level of violence in Baghdad. Citing military sources, the New York Times reports: “…the study found that a 2% increase in job satisfaction among Iraqis in Baghdad correlated to a 30% decline in attacks on allied forces and a 17% decrease in civilian deaths from sectarian violence.”

Although an economic surge may require a modest increase in U.S. spending this year and the next, it will save the U.S. billions of dollars over the longer term by effectively reducing conflict which will in turn reduce Iraq’s dependence on U.S. combat forces. For an estimated $100 million, we can support the reactivation of most of Iraq’s 193 state-owned factories and put more than 150,000 Iraqis back to work. Imagine what that can do for the quality of life in communities that largely depend on those factories for their livelihood, and how that in turn can reduce conflict and save American lives. Tackling soaring unemployment and stimulating local economies can do far more to stem violence than military operations and at a fraction of the cost.

This past weekend, President Bush sent a letter redirecting $3.2 billion in funds in support of U.S. troops in Iraq. While a considerable portion of these funds are for the military, Bush did include $100 million for restarting state-owned factories that will employ Iraqis. This is a huge step. Once a factory is back up and running, creating jobs and benefiting the community, the need for continued U.S. military involvement and protection diminishes. Why? Because it shifts the community against anyone who might bomb the factory or otherwise take away the jobs and income that their community needs. In short, the community becomes less likely to cooperate with illegal armed groups and more likely to cooperate with local authorities working to secure the area. And community members who directly benefit from the factory’s reopening are more likely to even take things a step further by voluntarily participating in the protection of the factory and community.

New Pentagon Report Released: Violence Up, Jobs Needed

The violence just keeps getting worse. According to a just-released Pentagon report, injuries and deaths among US and coalition forces in Iraq rose 32% during the period from mid-August to mid-October over the previous three months. The average number of attacks each week and the average number of people killed or wounded in those attacks were at their highest levels since the United States handed over power to the Iraqi government in June 2004.

The Pentagon report places much of the blame for this increase in violence on the rise of ethnic and sectarian militias and other armed groups. The report specifically refers to the militia led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr noting that it has replaced al-Qaeda as the biggest security threat in Iraq.

In terms of the economy, the Pentagon once again acknowledges the importance of job creation:

"High unemployment continued to feed sectarian, insurgent, and criminal violence. Although definitive data are not available on the actual unemployment rate, it has been an issue that has had a significant effect on the security environment. The Iraqi government, along with Coalition and international help, must create an effective strategy to provide jobs. This program must be seen as fair and non-sectarian by common Iraqis. It must produce tangible results for a plurality of Iraqis or it may decrease the legitimacy of the Government of Iraq and have little effect on the level of violence."

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the Pentagon has been proactive in this regard. For the past 6 months, the Pentagon has been going around and preparing to open approximately 200 factories located all over Iraq, including in some of the most dangerous cities. Oil production and electricity services are still hampered. The report also makes mention that reconstruction efforts have boosted capacity to provide drinking water to 5.2 million people. However as Justin Rood of TPM Muckracker notes, a GAO report released this past Friday claims that 60% of that water is lost due to leaking, contamination and theft.

Another interesting tidbit from the report: While most organizations, pundits and politicians have already adopted the term "civil war,"the Pentagon says the situation in Iraq is "far more complex than the term 'civil war' implies." It goes on to say, "However, conditions that could lead to civil war do exist, especially in and around Baghdad," and the Iraqi people are fearful of civil war.

The Pentagon is Doing Something Right After All

With so much bad news coming from Iraq everyday to the point that it can hardly be considered news in the man bites dog sense, I feel it is especially important to highlight what is going right in Iraq.

It seems the Pentagon has finally discovered how intrinsic the jobs crisis really is to the level of violence in Iraq.
Army Lt. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, the top U.S. field commander in Iraq, states:

"We need to put the angry young men to work. One of the key hindrances to us establishing stability in Iraq is the failure to get the economy going. A relatively small decrease in unemployment would have a very serious effect on the level of sectarian killing going on."

As many groups, including EPIC have argued, widespread unemployment -to the tune of 70% in some areas- is primarily fueling the insurgency and crime syndicates. Lacking alternatives, many of Iraq's unemployed, the youth especially, are being recruited into these dangerous positions. However, most Iraqis do not consider militias or criminal syndicates sustainable occupations, and would readily trade their guns in for a hammer.

For the past 6 months, the Pentagon has been going around and preparing to open approximately 200 factories located all over Iraq, including in some of the most dangerous cities. This effort would employ tens of thousands of Iraqis in the coming months. Furthermore, as each Iraqi supports a family of around 13, this employment drive would have an exponential effect on the welfare of the country.

Not only will Iraqi men no longer be compelled to join militias and crime syndicates, but by being able to provide for their family they will no longer have to rely as much on militias such as Muqtateda Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army which has been known to take care of the basic needs of many Iraqis. These militias will thus have less influence on Iraqis and their power will certainly diminish as a result.

Sure this should have happened a long time ago, but let us still be thankful that is finally happening.