Review of 2008 Attack Statistics In Iraq

The last two quarterly reports to Congress by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) contained statistics on the total number of attacks from April to December 2008. For the beginning of that year, the reports contained a different metric using average daily attacks instead. As reported before, last year saw a steady decline in the number of deaths in Iraq. The casualties, depending upon the source dropped to 2003 or 2004 levels. According to the January 2009 SIGIR report, Iraqi civilian deaths are down 80% from June 2007 to December 2008. Iraqi security forces' casualties dropped 84%, and Coalition deaths are down 88% for that same time period. Attacks also declined 86% to around the same amount as 2003. From April 1 to September 30, 2008 the average number of attacks per month stayed almost the same at just over 1,700. From October 1 to December 31 however attacks dropped to approximately 1,100. The fact that was an almost 90% drop from the middle of 2007 shows just how massive the conflict in Iraq was. Attacks are now largely based upon the struggle for power rather than sect, and are nowhere near what they were in recent years. The country remains an extremely dangerous place, but has a new post-sectarian war status quo.

Southern Iraq and Kurdistan were the most peaceful parts of Iraq, while the Sunni and mixed sect-ethnic provinces accounted for the vast majority of violence. Most of the conflict in the south was between the feuding Shiite parties the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and the Sadrists. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki became involved when he sent forces to crackdown on the Mahdi Army in early 2008. That has largely ended leading to few acts of violence there now. In Kurdistan the tight control over the entry of non-Kurds has largely deterred attacks. Muthanna, Karbala, and Najaf all had single digit attacks from April to December 2008. The three Kurdistan provinces of Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya only had 12 for that time period, followed by 33 in Qadisiyah, 45 in Dhi Qar, 51 in Wasit, and 94 in Maysan. That last province was the only one that had an increase in attacks from April to December because of the government's move against the Sadrists there. Basra had 145, but that was because of the end of the security operation against the Mahdi Army there as well that started in March 2008. From April to July there were 108 attacks there, but that quickly dropped to 26 from July to September, and eleven from October to the end of the year. Babil was the one southern province that had a large number of attacks consistently for the reporting period with 197 total. The remaining six provinces was the scene of most of the attacks in the country. Anbar had 646 where insurgents still carry out attacks against the Awakening tribes. Tamim with 677 contains the disputed city of Kirkuk, which has split Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, and Christians there. Diyala had 1,321 attacks from April to December. It is ruled by Shiites, but has a Sunni majority. The Sons of Iraq there have also been a target of insurgents, and the Kurds desire to annex northern strips of the province. Salahaddin with 1,573 attacks is a largely Sunni governorate, but the provincial council is run by Kurds. Ninewa with 3,801 attacks is ethnically divided between Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, Christians, and other smaller minority groups, and also has Kurdish leadership. Finally, the capital Baghdad has always had the most attacks with 3,801 as it is the seat of power.

Total Number of Attacks In Iraq From April 1-December 31, 2008

Province	Total Attacks 4/1/08-7/1/08	Total Attacks 7/1/08-9/30/08	Total Attacks 10/1/08-12/31/08
Muthanna	2	1	1
Karbala	1	4	0
Najaf	4	1	2
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya)	3	6	3
Qadisiyah	17	7	9
Dhi-Qar	17	21	7
Wasit	34	8	9
Maysan	12	43	39
Basra	108	26	11
Babil	81	54	62
Anbar	275	209	162
Tamim	248	245	184
Diyala	537	533	251
Salahaddin	717	482	374
Ninewa	1,041	924	511
Baghdad	2,221	867	713
TOTALS:	5,318	3,431	2,338
Avg. Per Month	1,772.6	1,715.5	1,169.0

SOURCES

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, "Quarterly Report to the United States Congress," 10/30/08

- "Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress," 1/30/09

Interview With McClatchy Newspapers’ Baghdad Bureau Chief Leila Fadel

In mid-December 2008 The Real News Network, an internet television station, interviewed Leila Fadel, the longtime Baghdad Bureau Chief of McClatchy Newspapers. As reported before, McClatchy is one of the few news outlets to maintain a fulltime staff in Iraq. The discussion covered the Surge, Moqtada al-Sadr, and the influence of Iran, but the most interesting part of the conversation was on Fadel’s opinions of the continuing struggles in Iraq.

Ms. Fadel believes that Iraq is still in turmoil. The major divisions within the country have not been dealt with despite the reduction in violence. Every time a major issue comes up in parliament, for example, it is always delayed and pushed back to be dealt with at a later time. This was seen when the legislature was discussing the Provincial Election Law. The most heated debate centered on the city of Kirkuk and the future of Tamim province. In the final version of the law however, elections there were postponed until a commission comes up with suggestions on how the major groups in the city can share power. Fadel believes that until these issues are dealt with there will still be violence in Iraq.

This will not be at the same levels as in the past, nor come from the same sources. The latest reports on violence show a dramatic drop in deaths from 2007 to 2008. Yet attacks and killings continue. Fadel believes that the motivation for such violence has changed. She thinks that the fighting in Baghdad is basically over along with the sectarian war. Now the major divisions are over politics between the Shiites in the south, and the Arabs and Kurds in the north where there is also an ethnic element. The conflict as ever in post-invasion Iraq, is about power and control of oil. The major groups, the Shiites, the Sunnis, and the Kurds are each vying for position, trying to find out who will have what in the future. Fadel said the political parties and their politicians are all opportunists, looking to see how much they can get away with and how much influence they can accrue.

At the heart of this struggle is Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki who in 2008 has been concentrating power around himself. He has direct control of all military and police units. They can’t move without his permission. He has launched military operations against the Sadrists, the insurgency, and has increasing fashioned himself as a nationalist in opposition to the expansionist plans of the Kurds. He is also being accused of being an autocrat more and more. Fadel said that there were even some who were afraid of Maliki, and his newfound position. This is the reason why Iraq is full of stories about him being-unseated.

There are now two more added pressures to this competition. First, 2009 will see a series of ballots for local, provincial, and national offices. This has already led to an uptake in attacks. The most recent were the murders of a member of the Patriot Union of Kurdistan who was gunned down in a drive by shooting on January 5, and a politician from the Communist Party the day before, both in Kirkuk. The United Nations Special Representative to Iraq, Staffan de Mistura condemned such election related violence. He mentioned a member of the Hadba, Iraq For Us Party, the major Sunni coalition in Ninewa being killed in a café on December 31 in Mosul. De Mistura said there had also been raids and attacks on the party. At the beginning of that month, two members of the Islamic Party were also killed in that city. Second is the change in the U.S. administration. Under the Bush White House Iraq had a blank check from the United States. Fadel believes Iraqi politicians are afraid that under Obama Iraq will not be such a priority, and the new president might make more demands of Baghdad. The U.S. has also agreed to a 2011 withdrawal date under the Status of Forces Agreement, which means not only do the political parties need to consider Obama, but what position they’ll be in after the Americans are largely gone.

Leila Fadel has been working in Iraq for a long time, and provided some important insight in her interview with The Real News Network. She tried to explain that politics is increasingly driving violence rather than violence shaping the politicians. In fact, the differences between the major parties and sectarian groups is increasing as elections approach, the Americans have agreed to pull out their combat troops, and Maliki makes his move to grab power. This has made it almost impossible for the parties to come to any real meaningful compromises. Even when parliament passes important legislation like the election law, the major issue of Kirkuk is put off. Other laws like the Amnesty and the Accountability and Justice acts have not been implemented evenly leading to little reconciliation. As long as Iraq continues to be divided, this new status quo is likely to continue.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq Hails Lowest Monthly Death Toll in Three Years,” 1/2/09
- “Kurdish communist politician shot dead in Iraq,” 1/4/09

Al-Ansary, Khalid, “Election friction flares in Iraq’s violent north,” Reuters, 1/2/09

Associated Press, “Member of Iraq president party killed in drive-by,” 1/6/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “Two IIP members assassinated in Mosul,” 12/1/08

Goode, Erica, “Iraq Passes Provincial Elections Law,” New York Times, 9/25/08

Hanna, Michael Wahid, “Through the cracks,” The National, 12/19/08

Jay, Paul, “Iraq gov’t fear Obama?” Real News Network, 12/16/08
- “Iraqi elites fight for position,” Real News Network, 12/12/08

Kadhim, Hussein, “Iraqi government plays down arrests of 23 police officers,” McClatchy Newspapers, 12/18/08

Kamal, Adel, “violence threatens mosul elections,” Niqash, 12/11/08

Rubin, Alissa, “Iraq Unsettled by Political Power Plays,” New York Times, 12/26/08

United Nations Radio, “UN Envoy in Iraq condemns election related violence,” 1/2/09

UPI, “SIIC denies attempts to oust Maliki,” 1/2/09

2008 Iraq Death Totals

The end of the year brings the totals for the number of Iraqi deaths in 2008. As reported earlier, there are divergent sources for these statistics. Iraq Body Count, which has the highest numbers, recorded 9,193 civilians killed for the year. That averages to 766 per month. According to its numbers there were an average of 10 deaths per day from suicide attacks and car bombs, as well as 14 killed per day from gunfire and executions. That compared to 22,671-24,295 deaths in 2007, and 25,774-27,599 in 2006. Icasualties, which has the lowest numbers, counted 4,912 civilian casualties, for an average of 409 dead each month. For 2007 they recorded 17,108 non-combatants killed. If Iraqi security forces are added to that number, 5,908 were killed in 2008, compared to 18,938 for 2007. Their website notes that, “Actual totals for Iraqi deaths are much higher than the numbers recorded on this site.” Agence France Presse, reported their own set of totals for the year based upon Iraq’s Defense, Interior, and Health ministries. The Baghdad agencies counted 6,772 civilians and security forces personnel dead in 2008. That was an average of 564 killed each month. Together they recorded 17,430 dead in 2007.

The major cause for the drop in casualties has been a combination of factors. The sectarian war between the Shiites and Sunnis ended with the Shiites winning. The Sunnis turned against Al Qaeda in Iraq beginning in Anbar with the Awakening, and then with the help of the U.S., throughout central and northern Iraq with the Sons of Iraq. The Surge tactics also helped secure neighborhoods in Baghdad and the central section of the country. Finally Moqtada al-Sadr’s cease-fires, although often broken, also contributed. There is still violence in Iraq however. Instead of being Shiite on Sunni however, it is now largely political with the upcoming elections looming, and ethnic between Arabs and Kurds in the north. Mosul, Baquba, and Baghdad remain the most dangerous cities in the country.

Iraq Death Counts

Iraq Body Counts: Civilians Killed
Total 2007: 22,671-24,295
Monthly Average: 1,889-2,024.5
Total 2008: 9,193
Monthly Average: 766

icasualties: Civilians and Security Forces Killed
Total 2007: 17,108 civilians, 1,830 security forces personnel, TOTAL: 18,938
Monthly Average: 1,578
Total 2008: 4,912 civilians, 996 security forces personnel, TOTAL: 5,908
Monthly Average: 409

Agence France Presse: Civilians and Security Forces Killed
Total 2007: 17,430 civilians and security forces personnel
Monthly Average: 1,452.5
Total 2008: 6,772 civilians and security forces personnel
Monthly Average: 564

For more on Iraqi death counts see:

Iraqi Death Counts

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq Hails Lowest Monthly Death Toll in Three Years,” 1/2/09

icasualties

Iraq Body Count

Iraqi Death Counts

There are four main sources for casualties in Iraq. Two, Iraq Body Count and icasualties are updated constantly, and are easily accessible on the internet. The Brookings Institution has its monthly Iraq Index, which tracks monthly death rates. From 2007 to the present they have relied upon the Pentagon for its dead and wounded numbers. Most of those come from the quarterly report the Pentagon makes to Congress known as “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq.” The Defense Department does not report specific numbers but rather provides charts, which the Iraq Index uses to make estimates off of. The fourth source is the major news services. Reuters for example, usually reports monthly totals for the number killed based upon Iraqi government officials. The United Nations’ human rights reports on Iraq use to have the official government numbers, but after the U.N. reported more than twice the number of official deaths in 2006, Baghdad decided to stop its ministries from reporting their death counts.

It should be no surprise that each one of these sources records different amounts. In broad terms, icasualties has the lowest number of deaths. On their website they note, “Iraqi deaths based on news reports. This is not a definitive count. Actual totals for Iraqi deaths are higher than the numbers recorded on this site.” Iraq Body Count’s numbers are higher, and the Pentagon is right in the middle. Reports by the news services and newspapers are all over the place depending upon whom they talk to. On December 1, 2008 for example, Reuters had a body count for November 2008 based upon “government figures.” Where they came from was never identified. On November 1 Alsumaria TV had a report on October’s casualties based upon the Iraqi Defense, Interior and Health Ministries. On September 30 the Associated Press had a report on deaths based upon their own count.

Despite their differences all reports have followed the same broad trend. From the invasion to 2005 there was a steady increase in civilian and Iraqi security forces’ casualties. In February 2006 a Shiite shrine in Samarra was bombed and the sectarian war took off, and so did the dead and wounded. From January 2007 to the present deaths have declined with small increases such as in early 2008 when the government launched offensives against the Mahdi Army in Basra and then Sadr City in Baghdad.

Iraq Body Count recently released a report on trends in 2008. It found that from January to November 2008 between 8,351-9,028 Iraqi civilians were killed. That compares to 25,774-27,599 civilian deaths in 2006 and 22,671-24,295 killed in 2007. In contrast icasualties recorded 5,908 civilians and Iraqi soldiers and police killed from January to December 29, 2008, while the pentagon counted 5,580 from January to September. Average daily deaths have dropped from 76 per day in 2006, to 67 per day in 2007, to 25 per day in 2008 according to Iraq Body Count. That is the same rate as the first 20 months after the U.S. invasion from May 2003 to December 2004. Violence has declined in Baghdad the most, as it was the center of the sectarian war that is now over and the focus of the U.S. Surge. From 2006-2007 the capital accounted for 54% of all deaths. By 2008 it only accounted for 32%. The number of Iraqi police killed has also gone down from 1,891 in 2006 to 2,065 in 2007 to 928 so far in 2008. As with the November 2008 Iraq Index, Body Count found that civilians killed in bombings has hardly changed. In 2007 1,174 civilians were killed in roadside bombings compared to 1,106 in 2008 up to November.

While none of these sources look into causality the major one is the end of the sectarian war. American commentators differ on the reasons for its cessation from the Shiites defeating the Sunnis in Baghdad, to the Surge, to the Sunni Awakening, to Moqtada al-Sadr’s cease-fire, but they all agree that the civil war is over. That doesn’t mean violence has ended. Rather the source has changed. Rather than revenge and ethnic cleansing, most of the attacks appear to be based upon political disputes. Places like Mosul and Kirkuk for example are divided between Arabs and Kurds, which has meant deaths have hardly decreased there since 2007. The provincial and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2009 could also be a cause. That will probably mean Iraq will continue to see violence in certain places into the foreseeable future as long as these issues are unresolved.

Iraq Death Counts

icasualties: Iraqi Security Forces and Civilians Killed:
January 2008: 554
February 2008: 674
March 2008: 980
April 2008: 744
May 2008: 506
June 2008: 450
July 2008: 419
August 2008: 311
September 2008: 366
October 2008: 288
November 2008: 317
To December 29, 2008: 299
TOTAL: 5,908

Brookings Institutions Iraq Index: Iraqi Civilians Killed
January 2008: 600
February 2008: 700
March 2008: 750
April 2008: 950
May 2008: 550
June 2008: 490
July 2008: 550
August 2008: 500
September 2008: 490
TOTAL: 5,580

Iraq Body Count: Iraqi Civilians Killed
January 2008: 742
February 2008: 977
March 2008: 1,538
April 2008: 1,260
May 2008: 759
June 2008: 669
July 2008: 583
August 2008: 591
September 2008: 535
October 2008: 526
November 2008: 467
To December 29, 2008: 322
TOTAL: 8,969

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Iraq violence kills 320 people in October,” 11/1/08

Babylon & Beyond Blog, “IRAQ: U.N.’s Iraq report still missing casualty count,” Los Angeles Times, 12/3/08

Campbell, Jason and O’Hanlon, Michael, “Iraq Index,” Brookings Institution

Gamel, Kim, “Iraq forces gain more control, but lose more lives,” Associated Press, 9/30/08

icasualties.org

Iraq Body Count.org

Matthews, Dylan and Klein, Ezra, “How Important Was the Surge?” American Prospects, 7/28/08

Reuters, “Iraq civilian death toll up, U.S. deaths down,” 12/1/08

November 2008 Iraq Index By The Brookings Institution

Each month the Brookings Institution puts out its Iraq Index. It’s a compendium of various statistics on violence, economic development, social indicators, and public opinion. The November 2008 edition was recently released. While it gives a good list of numbers, like previous reports, the major drawback is that many of them date back to 2006 and 2007 when newer ones are available. The latest Index shows that civilian deaths are down to the lowest level since 2003. Attacks on Coalition forces are down to 2004 levels, and attacks on Iraqi forces are the lowest since war began. There are still mass casualty bombings however at the same casualty rates as early 2005. Displacement is down to about 10,000 per month. Reconciliation is still shaky. U.S. casualties are minimal, but the psychological toll is increasing, especially with those that have deployed to Iraq for more than one tour. Finally, the aggregate economic numbers for Iraq are up, largely due to oil, while many of the country’s professionals have fled and not returned. While violence was Iraq’s most pressing issue, the Iraq Index shows that the country still has a long way to go before it becomes a healthy and stable one.

Security

Since the Surge all types of attacks and casualties are down in Iraq. Civilian deaths are at their lowest since the 2003 invasion. At the beginning of 2007 approximately 3,500 civilians were killed according to the Pentagon. Since January there has been a steady drop down to 600 in January 2008. After the security operations against the Mahdi Army that started in March, deaths have leveled off to around 500 deaths per month. This is the lowest number since the invasion. In comparison in May 2003 866 Iraqis were killed.

Coalition and Iraqi forces’ casualties are also down. The number of weekly attacks against the Coalition began dropping in June 2007. In September 2008 there were 390 per week, the lowest since 2004. Attacks on Iraqi forces are also down with only 25 killed in November 2008, a number not seen since the U.S. invasion.

Mass casualty bombings are the only thing that has not dropped as precipitously. In the first four months of 2005 there was an average of 20 bombings a month. From August to November 2008 there were an average of 19.75 such attacks. The casualties from these bombings are also down from 211 in January 2008 to 197 in June to 136 in November.

Iraqi Civilian Deaths 2003-2008:
May 2003: 866
August 2003: 1,292 highest for year
October 2004: 2,638 highest for year
August 2005: 3,303 highest for year
October 2006: 3,709 highest for year
January 2007: 3,500 highest for year
February 2007: 2,700
March 07: 2,400
April 07: 2,500
May 07: 2,600
June 2007: 1,950
July 07: 2,350
August 07: 2,000
September 07: 1,100
October 07: 950
November 07: 750
December 2007: 750
January 2008: 600
February 2008: 700
March 2008: 750
April 2008: 950
May 2008: 550
June 2008: 490
July 2008: 550
August 2008: 500
September 2008: 490

Note: The numbers from January 2007 to September 2008 are derived from charts provided by the Pentagon and are only approximations

Iraqi Forces Killed Per Month 2007-2008
Monthly Average April 2003 to May 2004: 65
January 2007: 91
February 2007: 150
March 2007: 215
April 2007: 300
May 2007: 197
June 2007: 197
July 2007: 232
August 2007: 76
September 2007: 96
October 2007: 114
November 2007: 89
December 2007: 72
January 2008: 69
February 2008: 110
March 2008: 161
April 2008: 113
May 2008: 110
June 2008: 77
July 2008: 98
August 2008: 85
September 2008: 98
October 2008: 48
November 2008: 25

Number Of Mass Casualty Bombings
May 2003: 0
December 2003: 14
January 2004: 9
June 2004: 19
December 2004: 17
January 2005: 28
February 2005: 18
March 2005: 13
April 2005: 21
June 2005: 34
December 2005: 21
January 2006: 30
June 2006: 56
December 2006: 65
January 2007: 69
June 2007: 42
November 2007: 22
December 2007: 23
January 2008: 24
February 2008: 21
March 2008: 28
April 2008: 21
May 2008: 14
June 2008: 19
July 2008: 19
August 2008: 22
September 2008: 22
October 2008: 14
November 2008: 21

Deaths From Mass Casualty Bombings 2008:
January 2008: 211
February 2008: 281
March 2008: 278
April 2008: 205
May 2008: 131
June 2008: 197
July 2008: 181
August 2008: 195
September 2008: 164
October 2008: 102
November 2008: 136

Reconciliation

While Iraq has passed a number of reconciliation laws, the implementation has been uneven. For these reasons the Brookings Institution gives the country a mixed rating. Out of a total of 11 possible points, Iraq rated a 6.0. The 2008 budget, the Pension Law, and purging the government of extremists were given the highest rating, while the Accountability and Justice Law, which is meant to replace the deBaathification process, the Amnesty Law, integrating the Sons of Iraq, funding the provinces, the Provincial Powers Act, and the provincial election law were all given mixed reviews because they have been unevenly implemented. Dealing with Kirkuk and passing a hydrocarbon law were given failing grades as little has happened with them.

Brookings’ Rating Of Benchmark Reconciliation Acts:
Note: Each issue can be given a 0, 0.5 or 1 with 0 being bad and 1 good. The highest possible score is 11.
2008 Budget – 1
Pension law – 1
Purging extremists from the government – 1
Accountability an Justice Law – 0.5
Integrating Sons of Iraq – 0.5
Amnesty Law – 0.5
Funding of provinces – 0.5
Provincial election law – 0.5
Kirkuk – 0
Hydrocarbon law – 0
TOTAL: 6.0 out of 11

U.S. Forces In Iraq

Casualties for U.S. forces are down, but the costs of repeated deployments are increasing. U.S. killed and wounded have dropped to the lowest levels since the U.S. invasion. From March 2003 to November 1, 2008 4,182 Americans have been killed. The overwhelming majority have been active duty, 3,410, and come from the Army, 3,035. Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) use to be the most deadly weapon used against American forces, but now they are down to 2003 levels. Of the 513,000 U.S. troops that have gone to Iraq, over 197,000 of them have been deployed more than once, and 53,000 have gone three or more times. Those that have gone on multiple deployments face a greater likelihood of developing Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.

U.S. Troop Fatalities December 2007-November 2008:
December 2007: 23
January 2008: 40
February 2008: 29
March 2008: 39
April 2008: 52
May 2008: 19
June 2008: 29
July 2008: 13
August 2008: 23
September 2008: 25
October 2008: 17
November 2008: 15

U.S. Troops Wounded November 2007-November 2008:
November 2007: 203
December 2007: 213
January 2008: 234
February 2008: 216
March 2008: 327
April 2008: 331
May 2008: 197
June 2008: 143
July 2008: 150
August 2008: 107
September 2008: 91
October 2008: 82
November 2008: 84

U.S. Military Casualties From 3/19/03 to 11/1/08:
Total Deaths: 4,182

• Men: 4,081
• Women: 101

Age:

• Younger than 22: 1,226
• 22-24: 1,020
• 25-30: 1,061
• 31-35: 408
• Older than 35: 467

Component:

• Active Duty: 3,410
• Reserve: 305
• National Guard: 467

Service:

• Army: 3,035
• Marines: 1,003
• Navy: 95
• Air Force: 48
• Coast Guard: 1

Race/Ethnicity:

• American Indian: 42
• Multi-race/Unknown: 45
• Pacific Islander: 48
• Asian: 79
• Black: 339
• Latino: 446
• White: 3,124

U.S. Deaths by IED’s December 2007-November 2008:
December 2007: 9
January 2008: 23
February 2008: 17
March 2008: 26
April 2008: 26
April 2008: 29
May 2008: 12
June 2007: 14
July 2008: 3
August 2008: 7
September 2008: 4
October 2008: 2
November 2008: 2

U.S. Troop Deployment:
Total since 2003: 513,000
Deployed more than once: 197,000+
Deployed three or more times: 53,000

Percentage of Non-Commissioned Officers suffering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder:
First deployment: 12%
Second deployment: 18.5%
Third of fourth deployment: 27%

Percentage of U.S. Active Duty Military Who Have Served in Iraq or Afghanistan:
57%

Insurgent Activity

As the casualty numbers reveal, violence is down across Iraq since the Surge. There are still pockets of instability however. Baghdad remains the most violent province of Iraq. Insurgent attacks have gone largely unchanged in Salahaddin, while they have increased in Ninewa. Diyala, the other unstable governorates has seen a 66% decline in insurgent activity compared to the average number of attacks from 2005-2008. In comparison, Kurdistan and much of the south are relatively peaceful.

Number of Daily Insurgent Attacks By Province: December 2007-May 2008 Compared to 2005-2008 Average
Baghdad: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 15.7, Feb.-May 08: 24.0, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 32.8
Ninewa: Dec. 07-Feb.08: 16.3, Feb.-May 08: 13.7, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 11.9
Salahaddin: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 8.8, Feb.-May 08: 6.2, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 6.2
Diyala: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 5.2, Feb.-May 08: 3.8, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 12.1
Anbar: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 2.4, Feb.-May 08: 2.0, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 19.2
Tamim: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 2.7, Feb.-May 08: 1.9, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 4.5
Basra: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 1.6, Feb.-May 08: 1.5, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 3.9
Babil: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.7, Feb.-May 08: 0.8, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 2.0
Wasit: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.3, Feb.-May 08: 0.5, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.7
Dhi Qar: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.3, Feb.-May 08: 0.3, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.5
Qadisiyah: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.2, Feb.-May 08: 0.2, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.9
Karbala: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.1, Feb.-May 08: 0.1, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.2
Maysan: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.1, Feb.-May 08: 0.0, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.4
Muthanna: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.1, Feb.-May 08: 0.0, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.2
Najaf: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.0, Feb.-May 08: 0.0, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.1
Irbil: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.1, Feb.-May 08: 0.0, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.1
Sulaymaniyah: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.1, Feb.-May 08: 0.0, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.1
Dohuk: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 0.0, Feb.-May 08: 0.0, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 0.1
TOTAL: Dec. 07-Feb. 08: 54.7, Feb.-May 08: 55.0, Avg. Attacks from Feb. 05-May 08: 106.4

Iraqi Forces

Iraqi forces continue to grow. In January 2004 there were just over 108,000 police, soldiers, and border guards. By November 2008 there were over 550,000. There are plans for even more expansion with new equipment purchases and recruiting.

Iraqi Force Growth Totals (Police, National Guard – Ended in January 2005, Iraqi Armed Forces, Border Patrol):
May 2003: 7,000-9,000
January 2004: 108,800
January 2005: 125,373
January 2006: 227,300
January 2007: 323,000
June 2007: 353,100
December 2007: 439,678
January 2008: 441,779
June 2008: 478,524
November 2008: 558,279

Political Freedoms

There were three rankings of Iraq’s political system in the Iraq Index. Brookings rated Iraq quite high on political freedom compared to other countries in the Middle East. Based upon elections, fairness, the right to organize, power of politicians, existence of an opposition, transparency, minority participation, corruption, freedom of assembly, press and religion, independence of judiciary, rule of law, and property rights, Iraq was ranked fourth out of 20 with a score of 5.05. Israel was ranked the most free at 8.2 with Libya the least at 2.05. Reporters Without Borders and Transparency International however ranked Iraq near the bottom in the world in terms of press freedom and corruption. In 2008 Iraq was 158 out of 173 countries in media freedom, while 178 out of 180 nations in corruption.

Index of Political Freedom:
Note: Each country was scored on a 10-point system with 1 the lowest and 10 the highest.
Israel: 8.20
Lebanon: 6.55
Morocco: 5.20
Iraq: 5.05
Palestine: 5.05
Kuwait: 4.90
Tunisia: 4.60
Jordan: 4.45
Qatar: 4.45
Egypt: 4.30
Sudan: 4.30
Yemen: 4.30
Algeria: 4.15
Oman: 4.00
Bahrain: 3.85
Iran: 3.85
United Arab Emirates: 3.70
Saudi Arabia: 2.80
Syria: 2.80
Libya: 20.05

Iraq’s Rank In Reporters Without Borders’ Annual Press Freedom Index:
2003: Rank Tied for 124 out of 166 countries
2004: 148 out of 167 countries
2005: 157 out of 167 countries
2006: 154 out of 168 countries
2007: 157 out of 169 countries
2008: 158 out of 173 countries

Iraq’s Rank In Transparency International’s Corruption Index:
2003: Tied for 113 out of 133 countries
2004: Tied for 129 out of 146 countries
2005: Tied for 137 out of 159 countries
2006: Tied for 160 out of 163 countries
2007: 178 out of 180

Iraq’s Political System

In 2005 Iraq held two elections for government. The first was for provincial councils, and the second for parliament. The elections were known for their sectarianism, as the major Shiite, Kurdish, and Sunni coalitions won the majority of seats. The secular Iraqi National List was the only other group to win a large number of seats. No group won an outright majority however so the cabinet positions were divided up between the major parties, along with a few independents and smaller parties.

Seats In Parliament By Party:
United Iraqi Alliance: 83
Kurdish Alliance: 53
Iraqi Accordance Front: 44
Sadrist Movement: 30
Iraqi National List: 25
Fadhila Party: 15
Iraqi National Dialogue Front: 11
Islamic Union of Kurdistan: 5
Liberation and Reconciliation Bloc: 3
Message Carries: 3
Mothal Alousi List for the Iraqi Nation: 1
Iraqi Turkoman Front: 1
Yazidi Movement for Progress and Reform: 1
Al Rafadeen List: 1

Iraqi Leadership:

• Prime Minister: Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite, Dawa
• Deputy Prime Minister: Barham Salih, Kurd, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
• Deputy Prime Minister: Rafie al-Issawi, Sunni, Iraqi People’s Conference, member of Iraqi Accordance Front
• President: Jalal Talabani, Kurd, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
• Vice President: Tarqi al-Heshemi, Sunni, Iraqi Islamic Party, part of Iraqi Accordance Front
• Vice President: Adel Abd al-Mahdi, Shiite, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council

Iraqi Cabinet:

• Trade Minister: Abd al-Falah al-Sudani, Shiite, Dawa
• Education Minister: Khudayr al-Khuzai, Shiite, Dawa
• National Security Minister: Shirwan al-Waili, Shiite, Dawa
• Muncipalities & Public Works Minister: Riyadh Gharib, Shiite, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
• Finance & Banking Minister: Bayan Jabr, Shiite, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
• National Dialogue Minister: Akram al-Hakim, Shiite, Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
• Tourism & Antiquities Minister: Qahtan Abbas Numan al-Jiburi, Shiite, United Iraqi Alliance, appointed 7/18/08
• Provincial Affairs Minister: Safa al-Safi, Shiite, United Iraqi Alliance, appointed7/18/08
• Transportation Minister: Amir Abd al-Jabar Ismail, Shiite, United Iraqi Alliance, appointed 7/18/08
• Civil Society Minister: Thamir Jaraf al-Zubaydi, Shiite, United Iraqi Alliance, appointed 7/18/08
• Minister of State Without Portfolio: Hasan Radhi Kazim al-Sari, Shiite, Hezbollah Movement in Iraq, close to Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
• Science & Technology Minister: Raid Fahmi Jahid, Shiite, Iraqi Communist Party
• Oil Minister: Hussain al-Shahristani, Shiite, Independent
• Agriculture Minister: Ali al-Bahadii, Shiite, Independent
• Minister of Parliamentary Affairs, Safa al-Din Muhammad al-Safi, Shiite, Independent
• Labor & Social Affairs Minister: Mahmud Muhammad Jawad al-Radi, Shiite, Independent
• Interior Minister: Jawad al-Bolani, Shiite, Independent
• Electricity Minister: Karim Wahid al-hasan, Shiite, Independent
• Water Minister: Latif Rashid, Kurd, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
• Environment Minister: Nermin Othman, Kurd, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
• Housing & Construction Minister: Bayan Dizayee, Kurd, Kurdistan Democratic Party
• Industry & Minerals Minister: Fawzi al-Hariri, Christian Kurd, Kurdistan Democratic Party
• Foreign Affairs: Hoshyar Mahmud Zebari, Kurd, Kurdistan Democratic Party
• Displacement & Migraiton Minister: Abd al-Samad Sultan, Kurd, Faili Kurd
• Human Rights Minister: Wijdan Mikhail Salim, Christian Kurd, Iraqi National Accord
• Minister of State Without Portfolio: Ali Muhammad Ahmad, Kurd, Kurdistan Islamic Union
• Culture Minister: Mahir Dalli Ibrahim al-Hadithi, Sunni, General Council for the People of Iraq, member of Iraqi Accordance Front, appointed 7/18/08
• Higher Education Minister: Dr. Abd Dhiyab al-Ujayli, Sunni, Iraqi Islamic Party, member of Iraqi Accordance Front, appointed 7/18/08
• Women’s Affairs Minister: Dr. Nawal Majid Hamid al-Samarr, Sunni, Iraqi Islamic Party, member of Iraqi Accordance Front, appointed 7/18/08
• Foreign Affairs Minister: Dr. Muhammad Munajid Ifan al-Dulaymi, Sunni,Iraqi Accordance Front, appointed 7/18/08
• Communications Minister: Faruq Abdul Qadir Abdul Rahman, Sunni, Iraqi Accordance Front
• Planning Minister: Ali Baban, Sunni, Independent
• Defense Minister: Abd al-Qadir Muhammad Jasim, Sunni, Independent
• Minister of State Without Portfolio: Muhammad Abbas al-Uraybi, Shiite, Iraqi National List
• Youth & Sport Minister: Jasim Muhammad Jafar, Shiite, Turkoman Islamic Union
• Justice Minister, empty

Iraq’s Economy

Oil continues to dominate Iraq. The rise in oil prices is largely responsible for the growth of the Iraqi economy. Production however has been spotty since the U.S. invasion, regularly going up and down. In December 2003 Iraq produced 2.3 million barrels a day of crude, and in November 2008 there was little change at 2.39 million barrels. Exports have seen more of a gradual increase, but it is still a minimal one. In December 2003 there were 1.541 million barrels of oil exported, compared to 1.82 million in November 2008. Despite this lack of growth in production, Iraq’s economy has expanded from a -41.4% GDP decline in 2003 because of the invasion to a 7.0% GDP growth in 2008, largely funded by petroleum, and a massive influx of foreign assistance. Because of the improved security, Iraq is also finally attracting investment from other countries as well. Trade with neighboring states, especially Iran is also increasing. Not mentioned in the report however, is the fact that most of these products undermine Iraqi companies.

Iraqi Oil Production (Millions of Barrels/Day):
Estimated pre-war level 2.5
May 03: 0.3
December 03: 2.3
January 04: 2.44
June 04: 2.295
December 04: 2.16
January 05: 2.1
June 05: 2.17
December 05: 1.92
January 06: 1.73
June 06: 2.3
December 06: 2.15
January 07: 1.66
June 07: 2.0
December 07: 2.42
January 08: 2.24
February 08: 2.39
March 08: 2.38
April 08: 2.40
May 08: 2.50
June 08: 2.52
July 08: 2.54
August 08: 2.50
September 08: 2.37
October 08: 2.37
November 08: 2.39
Government Goal: 2.1

Oil Exports (Millions of Barrels/Day):
Estimated pre-war level: 1.7-2.5
May 03: 0
December 03: 1.541
January 04: 1.537
June 4: 1.148
December 04: 1.520
January 05: 1.367
June 05: 1.377
December 05: 1.071
January 06: 1.05
June 06: 1.67
December 06: 1.45
January 07: 1.30
June 07: 1.47
December 07: 1.93
January 08: 1.93
February 08: 1.93
March 08: 1.88
April 08: 1.96
May 08: 1.96
June 08: 1.96
July 08: 1.85
August 08: 1.70
September 08: 1.65
October 08: 1.69
November 08: 1.82

Oil Revenue From Exports ($ billions)
June 03: $0.2
December 03: $1.26
January 04: $1.26
June 04: $1.28
December 04: $1.44
January 05: $1.49
June 05: $2.03
December 05: $1.6
January 06: $1.84
June 06: $3.03
December 06: $2.46
January 07: $1.89
June 07: $2.87
December 07: $4.27
January 08: $5.21
February 08: $4.94
March 08: $5.94
April 08: $5.77
May 08: $6.65
June 08: $6.99
July 08: $7.01
August 08: $5.65
September 08: $4.64
October 08: $3.68
November 08: $1.82

Estimated Amount of Foreign Direct Investment Attracted Per Month in Iraq
2004: $10 million
2005: $10 million
2006: $10 million
2007: $10 million
2008: $100 million

Annual Tariff Collected At Iraq’s Zurbatiyah Border Crossing In Wasit With Iran
2006: $800,000
2007: $1,800,000
2008: $6,900,000

GDP Estimates and Projections 2002-2008
2002: GDP $20.5 bil, Per capita GDP $802, Real GDP Change: -7.8%
2003: GDP $13.6 bil, Per capita GDP $518, Real GDP Change: -41.4%
2004: GDP $25.7 bil, Per capita GDP $949, Real GDP Change: +46.5%
2005: GDP 34.5 bil, Per capita GDP $1,237, Real GDP Change: +3.7%
2006: GDP $48.5 bil, Per Capita GDP $1,687, Real GDP Change: +5.9%
2007: GDP $55.4 bil, Real GDP Change: +4.1%
2008: GDP $60.9 bil, Real GDP Change: +7.0%

U.S. Spending In Iraq

The United States has been the largest benefactor of Iraq since the U.S. invasion as one would expect. America has appropriated $20.8 billion for Iraqi reconstruction and security, with $20.2 billion of it obligated. That development project is coming to an end however as Iraq is expected to take on most of this responsibility next year. As the war has dragged on, the medical costs for the returning troops are also increasing with the VA medical bill reaching $1 billion in 2008 for Iraq war veterans. Including military expenditures, the U.S. will have spent $653.9 billion by the end of fiscal year 2009 on the war.

What’s interesting about the figures is that the U.S. has been unable to spend a vast majority of its money in Iraq’s provinces, something that Baghdad is regularly criticized for. In 2007 for example, America failed to spend 50% of its capital budget for projects in thirteen of Iraq’s eighteen provinces. From January to July 2008 things didn’t seem to have improved with the U.S. spending less than 10% of its money in nine governorates.

U.S. Aid For Iraq As Of November 2008:
Appropriated: $20.8 billion
Obligated: $20.2 billion
Disbursed: $19.4 billion

U.S. Money Appropriated for Operation Iraqi Freedom:

• FY 2003: DOD $50.0 bil, Foreign Aid and Diplomatic Corps $3.0 bil, Total: $35.0 bil
• FY 2004: DOD $56.4 bil, Foreign Aid and Diplomatic Corps $19.5 bil, Total: $75.9 bil
• FY 2005: DOD $83.4 bil, Foreign Aid and Diplomatic Corps $2.0 bil, VA Medical 200 mil, Total: $85.5 bil
• FY 2006: DOD $98.1 bil, Foreign Aid and Diplomatic Corps $3.2 bil, VA Medical 400 mil, Total: 102.0 bil
• FY 2007: DOD $129.6 bil, Foreign Aid and Diplomatic Corps $3.2 bil, VA Medical 900 mil, Total: $133.6 bil
• FY 2008: DOD $145.4 bil, Foreign Aid and Diplomatic Corps $2.8 bil, VA Medical 1 bil, Total: $149.2 bil
• FY 2009: DOD $53.4 bil, Foreign Aid and Diplomatic Corps $800 mil, VA Medical $0, Total: $54.2 bil

• Total FY 2003-2009: $653.3 bil

U.S. Capital Budget Expended By Province – 2007:
Diyala: $110 mil allocated, N/A expanded, N/A% expended
Anbar: $107 mil allocated, $4 mil expended, 4% expended
Muthanna: $52 mil allocated, $10 mil expended, 19% expended
Basra: $195 mil allocated, $41 mil expended, 21% expended
Ninewa: $226 mil allocated, $59 mil expended, 26% expended
Baghdad: $560 mil allocated, $174 mil expended, 31% expended
Salahaddin: $93 mil allocated, $32 mil expended, 34% expended
Tamim: $91 mil allocated, $31 mil expended, 34% expended
Qadisiyah: $64 mil allocated, $25 mil expended, 39% expended
Dhi Qar: $138 mil allocated, $55 mil expended, 40% expended
Karbala: $71 mil allocated, $29 mil expended, 41% expended
Wasit: $83 mil allocated, $34 mil expended, 41% expended
Babil: $127 mil allocated, $62 mil expended, 49% expended
Maysan: $76 mil allocated, $39 mil expended, 51% expended
Najaf: $88 mil allocated, $56 mil expended, 64% expended
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniyah): $1,560 mil allocated, $1,487 mil expended, 95% expended

U.S. Capital Budget Expended By Province – January-July 2008:
Anbar: $192 mil allocated, N/A expended, N/A% expended
Diyala: $168 mil allocated, N/A expended, N/A% expended
Muthanna: $87 mil allocated, N/A expended, N/A% expended
Basra: $322 mil allocated, 0% expended, 0% expended
Ninewa: $359 mil allocated, 0% expended, 0% expended
Qadisiyah: $137 mil allocated, $0 expended, 0% expended
Dhi Qar: $219 mil allocated, 100,000 expended, 0.1% expended
Wasit: $137 mil allocated, 300,000 expended, 0.2% expended
Baghdad: $885 mil allocated, $15 mil expended, 2% expended
Babil: $206 mil allocated, $5 mil expended, 3% expended
Karbala: $170 mil allocated, $7 mil expended, 4% expended
Tamim: $146 mil allocated, $14 mil expended, 9% expended
Kurdistan (Douk, Irbil, Sulaymaniyah): $2,528 mil allocated, $266 mil expended, 11% expended
Salahaddin: $150 mil allocated, $16 mil expended, 11% expended
Najaf: $150 mil allocated, $19 mil expended, 13% expended
Maysan: $124 mil allocated, $17 mil expended, 14% expended

Judicial System

Like the rest of Iraq, the country’s judicial system had to start from scratch after the U.S. invasion. The Americans have been working on building up capacity, but it has been a slow and arduous process. The result is that Iraq still doesn’t have a functioning investigative or court system. The problem is with the huge amount of suspected insurgents arrested in the previous years that have completely overwhelmed the system. Violence is still directed at judges and lawyers as well. Corruption is also an issue with some. The number of judges is one indicator of progress. While the number has steadily increased, it is still not enough to deal with the caseload in the country.

Number of Trained Iraqi Judges:
May 2003: 0
June 2004: 175
May 2005: 351
October 2005: 351
August 2006: 740
November 2006: 800
January 2007: 870
August 2007: 1,100
November 2007: 1,200
March 2008: 1,200
June 2008: 1,180
40 judges have been assassinated since 2005
135 judges have been removed for corruption of because of the deBaathification process

Professional Brain Drain

There has been a massive brain drain since 2003. Many of the country’s professionals have fled the country. Even with violence subsiding since the Surge, few have come back. The Iraq Index provides numbers on Iraq’s doctors as an example of this debilitating loss of the country’s human capital.

Doctors In Iraq
Doctors before 2003 Invasion: 34,000
Doctors who have left since 2003: 20,000 estimate
Doctors murdered since 2003 invasion: 2,000
Doctors kidnapped: 250
Avg. salary of Iraqi doctor: 7.5 million dinars per year (around $5,100)
Annual graduates from Iraqi medical schools: 2,250
% of medical graduates that will work outside of Iraq: 20%

SOURCES:

O’Hanlon, Michael and Campbell, Jason, “Iraq Index,” Brookings Institution, 11/20/08

United Nations’ Dec. 08 Human Rights Report On Iraq

In the beginning of December 2008 the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) released its human rights report covering the first six months of the year. The paper documented the continuing violence and casualties in Iraq, as well as the situation of women, minorities, the press, the internally displaced, and detainees. The U.N found that there are still mass casualty attacks in Iraq, although not at previous levels. Women are also targeted, especially in Kurdistan in honor killings, minorities continue to be threatened, the press, especially in Kurdistan continues to be limited, and the situation of the country’s internally displaced is deteriorating. Iraq’s prisons are also overcrowded with reports of torture and abuse, as the legal system is overloaded. Overall, while security is improving in Iraq, the U.N. agency noted that there are still widespread abuses and human rights concerns.

Violence

Violence is down, but not over in Iraq. On January 23, 2008, for example, there was a bombing in Mosul that killed 15 and wounded 132. There continue to be attacks on civilians, security forces, government officials, politicians, educators, professionals, members of the judicial system, and the press. The U.N. no longer reports on total casualties for the country however. In its January 2007 Human Rights report, the U.N. recorded almost three times as many deaths as the Iraqi government. Baghdad then stopped issuing official death counts claiming that it couldn’t accurately keep track of deaths, but also to conceal the increasing killings due to the sectarian war that was taking off at that time.

Instead of total deaths, the report covered mass casualty attacks. The U.N. found that these declined from January to June 2008. There were eight such attacks in January compared to only 4 in June, while the number of killed and wounded went down from 330 to 206 for those same months. From March to June however, the total number of casualties actually increased going from 161 to 206.

Large Scale Attacks
January – 8 attacks resulting in 330 casualties
February – 6 attacks resulting in 253 casualties
March – 5 attacks resulting in 161 casualties
April – 6 attacks resulting in 177 casualties
May – 3 attacks resulting in 205 casualties
June – 4 attacks resulting in 206 casualties

Government employees, religious figures, activists, judges, lawyers, professionals, and academics all continue to be targeted. Attacks on security forces not only resulted in they being wounded and killed, but civilians as well. There were 11 such incidents resulting in 274 civilian casualties from January to June 2008. There were 22 attacks on government officials, politicians and civil servants. In June for example, two members of the Sadr City Council were killed and ten wounded in a bombing of the council building. Kidnappings are also common, especially in Diyala province. Large numbers of unidentified bodies were found in Diyala, Ninewa, Anbar, Qadisiyah, but mainly in Baghdad. Mass graves have also been found, particularly after insurgents have been cleared from an area.

Deaths due to foreigners were also a concern. There were two high-profile cases of Iraqis being wounded and killed by security contractors in the first six months of 2008. In January 5 a car fleeing an attack hit five students, aged 6-10. In February Blackwater contractors trying to clear traffic killed one civilian. There were also six Coalition air strikes that resulted in civilian casualties.

Women

The U.N. received many complaints about the rights of women being limited by conservatives in their neighborhoods, in the government, and in schools. The Major concern was in Kurdistan where there were reports of honor killings. A women’s group in Irbil found 145 cases of violence against women in just the first two months of 2008. In May, the Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister held a meeting on violence against women promising action on this issue. England’s Guardian also just reported on honor killings in Basra where authorities were turning a blind eye.

Minorities

Iraq’s minorities, consisting of Shabaks, Yezidis, Christians, and Turkomen in Ninewa and Tamim continue to worry the U.N. There were 17 reported kidnappings of Christians in those two provinces, along with nine attacks on Shabaks, mostly in Mosul, 2 Turkomen leaders were killed in that city in June, and Sabean Mandeans were threatened.

Press

Journalists continue to be attacked in Iraq. The Kurds were singled out in the report for their restrictions on the press as well. Many reporters and editors have been arrested in Kurdistan, with the Committee to Protect Journalists issuing a report in May calling for the end of their persecution. The KRG claims that they are only going after those that are guilty of libel and lack professionalism, but UNAMI doubts these claims. The results have been that many papers are intimidated by the regional government, and practice self-censorship.

Internally Displaced

The U.N. counts 2.8 million internally displaced Iraqis. 1.2 million were forced out of their homes before 2006, and 1.6 million afterwards. Displacement has slowed in 2008, and over 100,000 Iraqis have returned to their homes since 2007. There were new displacements in the Dora, Jamia, Sulaik, Adhamiya and Karkh districts of Baghdad however. The U.N. is also concerned about the fact that eleven of Iraq’s eighteen provinces have restricted the movement of refugees into their areas. Overall, the internally displaced suffer from a lack of services and jobs, resulting in deteriorating living conditions.

Prisons

The plight of Iraqi detainees was a major concern. At the end of June 2008 there were a total of 50,595 prisoners. The highest number was in March when there were 56,320.

Detainees - 2008
January: 23,800 held by Coalition, 26,676 held by Iraq, TOTAL: 50,476
February: 23,862 held by Coalition, 26,854 held by Iraq, TOTAL: 50,791
March: 23,862 held by Coalition, 32,458 held by Iraq, TOTAL: 56,320
April: 23,862 held by Coalition, 28,283 held by Iraq, TOTAL: 52,145
May: 23,229 held by Coalition, 28,028 held by Iraq, TOTAL: 51,257
June: 23,229 held by Coalition, 27,366 held by Iraq, TOTAL: 50,595

The jump in numbers in March coincided with the security operation in Basra

These numbers revealed two things. First, the February 2008 Amnesty Law has had no real affect on prisoners. Most of those affected by the act were actually people on wanted lists or on bail with only 2,000 detainees and convicts let go. Second, the U.S. setup a new program in its prison facilities during the Surge, aimed at increasing the number of those released. They claimed that they were discharging more prisoners than taking in new ones, but for the first six months of 2008 there as no real change in Iraqis held by the Americans. A May 19, 2008 report by the USA Today quoted U.S. military officials who said that the number of detainees they were holding dropped from 26,000 in 2007 to around 22,000 in May. UNAMI’s numbers show only a slight decline from 23,800 in January 2008 to 23,229 in May, only a 571 decrease. This brings into question the U.S. claims of successful rehabilitation and increased releases of Iraqis.

The major problem with the U.S. and Iraqi systems has been overcrowding and a lack of capacity by Iraq’s courts. Most prisoners are held for months, sometimes years, before they are ever charged, receive legal aid, or go before a judge. The courts simply cannot handle the number of prisoners. The detainees are therefore overcrowded with horrible conditions. Reports of abuse and torture are also common. Kurdistan is no better than the rest of Iraq. There are reports of secret detention facilities there, and the Kurdish Regional Government often moves prisoners when U.N. officials come to inspect sites.

Recommendations

The United Nations Mission had several recommendations for the Iraqi government. First, the Health Ministry needs to release official numbers of casualties in Iraq. Reports today are based upon leaks from various ministries and officials or the U.S. military. The government also has to protect vulnerable groups like minorities and the displaced, and investigate attacks on women. The legal system needs to deal with the large number of detainees, who are usually held without ever being processed, and address torture. That would begin to alleviate some of the problems in the overcrowded detention facilities. The U.N. also wants Iraq’s parliament to pass a human rights law to give legal standing to protecting against some of these abuses.

SOURCES

Babylon & Beyond Blog, “IRAQ: U.N.’s Iraq report still missing casualty count,” Los Angeles Times, 12/3/08

Michaels, Jim, “Military retools detainee releases,” USA Today, 5/19/08

Reilly, Corinne, “As clock ticks, U.S. letting thousands of Iraqi prisoners go,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/27/08

UN Assistance Mission for Iraq, “Human Rights Report 1 January – 30 June 2008,” United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq

Making It...Nasser Nouri's Story

Yesterday, I attended a briefing by the House Oversight Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs which included special guests Jonathan Finer and Naseer Nouri. Jonathan Finer worked as a journalist covering the conflict in Iraq in 2003 and again in 2005, in addition to covering the refugee crisis in Syria and Jordan. Naseer Nouri, the briefing's most prominent speaker, worked as an Iraqi journalist and interpreter for the Washington Post from 2003 to 2008.

The Tulsa, Oklahoma (USA) graduate, former pilot and aircraft engineer fell into a job with the Washington Post after a chance encounter with Anthony Shadid, the Post's Pulitzer Prize-winning foreign correspondent who was covering the looting in Baghdad following the fall of the regime. After a number of meetings with Shadid, either at Nouri's house, where Shadid was welcomed by his family, or at the hotel where Shadid was staying, he introduced Nouri to Rajiv Chandrasekaran, the Washington Post Baghdad bureau chief, and then Nouri started working with him, which brought about his interest in journalism. The looters had broken into Nouri's travel agency and were hauling off anything of value. Shadid couldn't help but notice Nouri yelling at the looters, and they agreed to meet later to discuss the experience. When Shadid discovered Nouri's near-fluency in English, he offered Nouri a job as a translator for the Post's Baghdad bureau.

Nouri explains: "Until then, I had mostly used newspapers to clean windows. After a number of meetings with Shadid, either at my house, where he was welcomed by my family, or at the hotel where he was staying, I became very interested about journalism. With time, I moved from translation to writing."

Proud of his new career, in which he could ensure that the history of Iraq was written correctly, news of Nouri's career move spread throughout his neighborhood. Then, in the span of 15 days, events occurred that changed Nouri and his family's life forever. Twice, a group of men narrowly missed abducting his youngest daughter, while Al Qaeda succeeded in kidnapping his 15 year old nephew. In a separate incident, his nephue escaped his captors by claiming to use the restroom. Other family members were also targeted. His brother in-law was killed by men in police uniform when he was on his way to Baghdad from Kirkuk, at the north east of Baghdad. He came to bring Nouri's family some money so they could obtain passports and be able to travel to Amman.

Nouri took his family to Amman, Jordan to keep them safe. Facing numerous obstacles to a better life there, he knew he had to try to get his family to America. Applying to the UNHCR in February 2007, Nouri wasn't accepted until the 21rst of May 2008. In America, Nouri and his family still face tremendous challenges not unlike the other "lucky" refugees who make it to America, in a system not fully prepared to resettle families. Our Iraqi allies who make it to the United States have considerable talents, which if utilized contribute to society. Instead, many refugees are forced to take low paying jobs that don't match their professional skill sets and educational experience. According to Mr. Nouri, the best thing we can do is to set up a system that fully integrates Iraqi refugees into society, from getting them here to making sure that parents have proper jobs and their children are properly educated. Think about how frustrating it must be for an Iraqi teenager to have to start school many grade levels below their peers once they get to America.

Nouri and Finer agreed that, even if the U.S. meets its goal of admitting 12,000 Iraqi refugees for this fiscal year, in addition to admitting another 5,000 Iraqis through the Special Immigrant Visa program, the U.S. effort is a drop in the bucket considering both the scale of the crisis, over 2 million refugees and over 2.7 million internally displaced, and the U.S.'s moral obligation to its Iraqi allies. No matter you feel about the war, we can all agree that the U.S. must do more to raise its admittance goals and take care of vulnerable Iraqis, even once they make it to the United States. Vulnerable Iraqis should not be forced to choose between a life of poverty and mortal danger.

Photo Caption: A recent photograph of Nasser Nouri

Don't Forget About the Children

Yesterday in The Washington Post, a story on the psychological impact on children in the war offered some startling evidence. With over two million child refugees, the intensity of their experiences and trauma is far-reaching.

It's all too easy to forget about the children in this war when talking about stress disorders, internally and externally displaced persons, and other devastating consequences lost in this consistent sea of violence. It's all too easy to to forget that, while incredibly harrowing for the average citizen in Iraq, it's ten times worse for a child. Lacking in many of the psychological coping mechanisms possessed by their elders, and gained only through years and life experience, many children simply do not know how to react to the violent images they see day in and day out.

"In a World Health Organization survey of 600 children ages 3 to 10 in Baghdad last year, 47 percent said they had been exposed to a major traumatic event over the past two years." Abdul Muhsin, a psychiatrist in Baghdad, is concerned that over this time, the number of cases of psychological problems exhibited in children has, and will continue to increase exponentially. He is taken aback, rightly so, when he sees children playing with toy guns and emulating rocket propelled grenade attacks on cars passing by - he is worried that this generation will be more violent than that of Saddam Hussein's.

Given the increased consistency of violence in Iraq, it seems as though children are both consumed by fear, and are finding solace from that fear in replicating the life they see on the streets - markedly disastrous alternative outlets for their psychological ailments. Due to the "stigma attached to such ailments," children are simply not being treated - "As many as 80 percent." Meanwhile, for the lucky children who still have their parents to look after them, their mother and father simply call in for advice, hardly the most effective method of treatment.

Many childhoods will be summed up with gunfire, fear, and damaging psychological trauma. This is a situation that needs to be addressed immediately. Children are extremely vulnerable in this conflict and these events are being ingrained in their memory as we speak. To have hope in the situation is to have hope in the future generations that rebuilding the country will fall on. Right now those future generations are being done incalculable damage. For the future of Iraq, and for the well being of countless children, we need a solution now.

UNICEF is calling for 20 million in aid to help accomplish their goals in Iraq. Only 11 percent has been received to date. This is unacceptable; the U.S. should be taking a much greater role in helping to alleviate one of the worst refugee crises in history.

YOU can still take action on behalf of Iraq's refugees. We continue to hand-deliver your letters to Members of Congress, and are keeping our action center open until the U.S. government passes serious, comprehensive legislation to assist not only children, but all those displaced by violence in Iraq.

Student at Baghdad University: "The sky was raining burning paper and body parts."

What defines a crisis as the type that compels media attention?

On April 17th, American and international media attention was riveted on the murders of 32 Virginia Tech students. The coverage was non-stop. It was impossible not to hear or read about what had happened that terrible day. Everyone knew about the massacre.

But did you know that since the end of January, more than 100 students, professors and education professionals have been killed at Mustansiriya University in Baghdad? This past January, Iraqi mothers, fathers, sisters and brothers mourned the lives of at least 60 people who were killed at Mustansiriya University. In February, families mourned again when a suicide bomber killed 39 students and 9 guards at that same Baghdad campus.

Compared to other situations, there has been a lack of awareness about the impact that violence has on the lives of everyday Iraqis. Where is the media coverage?

The more than 100 lives lost at Mustansiriya University this year shows that violence in Iraq significantly impacts the daily lives of Iraqi families, as places like schools and universities continue to get caught in the cross fire.

Remembering the past and looking to the future

In mid-March, Georgetown University students held a candlelight vigil in memory of American soldiers and Iraqi civilians who have died since the beginning of the Iraq war. EPIC's Director Erik Gustafson delivered a message of unity to the crowd that was brought together by the Arab Studies Graduate Program and the College Democrats. He said, "Many people forget the human cost of war. A life lost, whether it be an Iraqi civilian or American soldier, is a life cut too short."

Vigil Organizer and EPIC member, Marwa Alkhairo, echoed Erik's sentiments in Georgetown's The Hoya, "Pain of loss, pain of death…pain of losing a loved one is blind to religion, blind to race, blind to ethnicity. Tears of an Iraqi mother are the same as tears of an American mother."

This vigil marked the beginning of Iraq Remembrance Week at the University. The goal of the week-long events was to educate students on the effects of war, putting a human face on suffering. Events included film screenings and panel discussions with active government officials and scholars.

EPIC friend and Ground Truth Project Interviewee, Laura Poitras, screened her Oscar-nominated film, My Country, My Country. While the film played, Laura and I grabbed coffee and discussed her up-coming project on Guantanamo Bay's detention camp. She told me about her experience interviewing several detainees and learning the heartbreaking stories that brought them to the camp. Laura hopes to complete this film in 2008.

New ICRC Report on Iraq

The International Red Cross Committee just released a report produced over the last three weeks about the worsening humanitarian crisis in Iraq. Here are some excerpts:

'''Once I was called to an explosion site,''' it quotes, Saad, a young Baghdad humanitarian worker as saying. '''There I saw a 4-year-old boy sitting beside his mother's body, which had been decapitated by the explosion. He was talking to her, asking her what had happened.'''
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"The plight of Iraqi civilians is a daily reminder of the fact that there has long been a failure to respect their lives and dignity."

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''Humanitarian aid is clearly not enough when it comes to addressing the immense needs of Iraqis in the present disastrous security situation.''

The beginning of the report briefly mentions the reliance of many families on government distribution and reported food shortages. Refugees International, in a policy brief released yesterday, documents the decrepit public distribution system and how several problems, including a lack of integrity among Iraq's politicians, are contributing to food shortages, particularly in the Kurdish north.

You can read "Civilians Without Protection: The Ever-worsening Humanitarian Crisis in Iraq," the full 8-page Red Cross report here.