Showing posts with label poverty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label poverty. Show all posts

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Will New Oil Deals Provide Jobs For Iraqis?

Iraq recently completed the second round of bidding on its oil fields, which will hopefully usher in the return of international petroleum companies to Iraq that will bring in much needed investment and know how. This round went much better than the first with deals for seven of the ten fields up for auction. Iraq’s Oil Minister Hussain Shahristani believes that Iraq could reach 12 million barrels a day in capacity in six years as a result, which would make it a rival to the world’s largest producer Saudi Arabia. With such high expectations, many Iraqis, especially in southern Iraq where most of the oil resides, are hoping that this wealth will trickle down in the form of jobs and better services.

Currently southern Iraq has some of the poorest sections of the country despite the huge petroleum reserves. A recent report by the government’s Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology, found that 49% of the population in Muthanna and 41% in Babil lived in poverty, the highest rates in Iraq. Residents of Dhi Qar told Agence France Presse that they didn’t expect much from the new oil deals, feeling that the best jobs would go to those that had political connections or paid bribes. In contrast, the Italian head of Dhi Qar’s Provincial Reconstruction Team, U.S.-funded groups that are aimed at improving the political and economic development of Iraq at the local level, believed that there would be plenty of job opportunities, and the complaints about corruption were overblown. Provincial officials in Basra also expressed similar optimism.

If jobs do appear, they will have to be from spin-offs such as construction and services, because its estimated that Iraq will only need 40,000 new oil workers by 2015. That’s a drop in the bucket when compared to the 250,000 young Iraqis who enter the job market each year. In Wasit for example, the sole foreign petroleum company currently operating in Iraq, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), only hired 450 Iraqis since it started working there in late-2008. They have also been accused of damaging farmland that has set off a wave of protests and small-scale sabotage against the corporation.

The problem as ever is that petroleum is not a labor-intensive industry. There will be a flurry of construction early on to improve the oil fields, which could offer opportunities to Iraqis. After that, probably in the best case, the increased revenues from higher exports will give Baghdad the necessary funds to improve services to placate the public. Otherwise the new oil deals will just give people another excuse to complain about their government.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Southern Iraq town hopes for jobs boom after oil auction,” 12/17/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “COSIT: Unemployment, poverty drop in Iraq,” 12/13/09

BBC, “Iraq oil capacity ‘to reach 12m barrels per day,’” 12/12/09

Gunter, Frank, “Liberate Iraq’s Economy,” New York Times, 11/16/09

Al Jazeera, “Iraq’s oil wealth eludes the poor,” 11/4/09

Yackley, Ayla Jean, “Iraqi oil deals mean reams of steel, miles of pipes,” Reuters, 12/10/09

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Almost Half Of Iraqis Live In Slum Conditions

The United Nations Habitat for a Better Future project just released a fact sheet on the housing conditions in Iraq. It found that 40% of Iraqis live in slum conditions.

Iraq is a largely urban nation. 71% of the population lives in cities. Of those, 57% live in slum conditions according to the U.N. Diyala, 86%, Maysan, 82%, and Tamim, 78%, were the worst off, while Irbil, 38%, Sulaymaniya, 42%, and Salahaddin, 46%, had the lowest numbers. The main causes are population growth, overcrowding, internal displacement, and poor housing conditions. The U.N. warns that the situation will only get worse. From 1970 to 2007 Iraq’s population almost tripled in size. By 2030 they predict the country will have around 50 million people due to the large number of young people and high fertility rates. That means more overcrowding in Iraq’s urban centers.


% Of Households Living In Slum Conditions By Province
Irbil 38%
Sulaymaniya 42%
Salahaddin 46%
Dohuk 49%
Karbala 49%
Babil 52%
Baghdad 52%
Basra 54%
Ninewa 56%
Wasit 58%
Dhi Qar 59%
Anbar 59%
Najaf 64%
Muthanna 67%
Qadisiyah 73%
Tamim 78%
Maysan 82%
Diyala 86%
Iraq overall 57%

The U.N. doesn’t believe this situation will be alleviated anytime soon because of a number of issues. Among them are laws limiting private investment, banks that give few personal loans, and a government that is slow to open public land to development. There is legislation, for example, that bars companies from owning land. Strong Iraqi nationalism that opposes foreign corporations, a largely state-run economy, and election year politics all deter Iraqi politicians from changing the laws and regulations. Like so many other things, Iraq is facing a growing problem that needs a response, yet the government is unwilling and unable to meet the challenge.

SOURCES

Abbas, Mohammed, “Iraq aims to allow foreign investors to own land,” Reuters, 5/25/09

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Fact Sheet: Housing & Shelter in Iraq,” UN Habitat for a Better Future, 10/5/09

Ryan, Missy and al-Ansary, Khalid, “Iraq investment still hindered by politics, bureaucracy,” Reuters, 10/7/09

Monday, August 03, 2009

Kurdistan Lacks Services And Employment


Kurdistan recently held parliamentary elections on July 25, 2009. The main topics in the vote were the rule of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and corruption. Just as important could be the economy. While there are many who tout the relative stability in Kurdistan and its foreign investment, the region actually lags behind in almost all humanitarian and economic indicators compared to the rest of the country.

The Kurdistan Region is made up of three provinces, Dohuk, Erbil, and Sulaymaniya. Irbil and Sulaymaniya have over one million inhabitants each, while Dohuk only has around 500,000. Dohuk is also home to over 100,000 internally displaced Iraqis.

Population

Dohuk 505,491

Irbil 1,542,421

Sulaymaniya 1,893,617

Internally Displaced In Kurdistan

Sulaymaniya 36,000

Ibril 62,034

Dohuk 112,392

The relative stability and security in Kurdistan has not provided the population there the opportunities or services one would expect. The employment situation in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is mixed. In Iraq overall 12% of men and 13% of women are without jobs. Men in Irbil and Sulaymaniya do better at 9% and 10% respectively, but in Dohuk 13% of men are lacking employment. Women do far worse however. In Irbil the unemployment rate for them is 16%, followed by 26% in Sulaymaniya and 30% in Dohuk. The percentage of men and women involved in the labor force are also lower in Kurdistan compared to Iraq. In the rest of the country 18% of women and 81% of men are either employed or looking for work. The labor force participation in Dohuk is only 7% for women and 76% for women. Irbil at 12% of women, 77% of men, and Sulaymaniya at 15% of women and 78% of men, only do slightly better.

Unemployment

Iraq: 13% women, 12% men

Irbil: 16% women, 9% men

Sulaymaniya: 26% women, 10% men

Dohuk: 30% women, 13% men

Labor Force Participation

Iraq: 18% women, 81% men

Dohuk: 7% women, 76% men

Irbil: 12% women, 77% men

Sulaymaniya: 15% women, 78% men

In terms of poverty Kurdistan actually does better than Iraq in general. 22% of Iraqis live in the lowest per capita income quintile. Irbil at 15% and Sulaymaniya at 18% do better, although in Dohuk 33% of the population is in the bottom group.

Poverty - % Living In The Lowest Per Capita Income Quintile

Iraq: 22%

Irbil: 15%

Sulaymaniya: 18%

Dohuk: 33%

Where the KRG lags behind is in education. Kurdistan has higher illiteracy rates, with 43% of women and 21% of men in Dohuk, 40% of women and 20% of men in Sulaymaniya, and 44% of women and 18% of men in Irbil in this situation, compared to 24% of women and 11% of men nationally. This is due to lower education levels. In Iraq 47% of women and 31% of men have less than a primary education. In Dohuk the rate is 65% of women and 49% of men, followed by 64% of women and 49% of men in Sulaymaniya, and 64% of women and 42% of men in Irbil.

Illiteracy

Iraq: 24% women, 11% men

Irbil: 44% women, 18% men

Sulaymaniya: 43% women, 20% men

Dohuk: 43% women, 21% men

% With Less Than A Primary Education

Iraq: 47% women, 31% men

Irbil: 64% women, 42% men

Sulaymaniya: 64% women, 49% men

Dohuk: 65% women, 49% men

Services are also worse in the KRG. Kurds receive much less electricity than the rest of the country. 55% of Iraqis have more than 11 hours of power cuts per day or are not connected to the power network at all. In Kurdistan more than 80% of the population in all three provinces experience these difficulties. Kurdistan is also lacking in sanitation. 26% of Iraqis are not connected to the sanitation system. Dohuk is close to the national average at 28% not being connected, but Sulaymaniya at 38% and Irbil at 48% don’t do as well.

Electricity – More Than 11 Hours of Power Cuts Or No Connection To Network

Iraq: 55%

Irbil: 84%

Sulaymaniya: 88%

Dohuk: 85%

Not Connected To the Sanitation Network

Iraq: 26%

Dohuk: 28%

Sulaymaniya: 38%

Irbil: 48%

Since 2003, Kurdistan has been one of the most stable parts of Iraq due to its tight security, limits on migration, and domination by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). These two ruling parties however, have not been able to take advantage of that to provide jobs, education, or services to the population. Instead the PUK and KDP have been more interested in maintaining their control, and building up their two major strongholds, the cities of Irbil and Sulaymaniya. Outside of those urban areas the rest of the KRG has been left underdeveloped. This was the first year that this became an issue when Kurds went to the polls. Even then, the PUK and KDP seem to have maintained their control of the KRG. If the elections lead to an actual opposition however, those two parties may finally begin serving the population rather than themselves because now they actually have to compete for the loyalties of the people.

SOURCES

Dagher, Sam, “Strong Showing Seen for Kurdish Challengers,” New York Times, 7/26/09

Danly, James, “The 2009 Kurdish Elections,” Institute for the Study of War, 7/23/09

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Dahuk Governorate Profile,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, April 2009

- “Erbil Governorate Profile,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, July 2009

- “Sulyamaniyah Governorate Profile,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, July 2009

Friday, June 05, 2009

Survey Finds 23% of Iraqis Live In Poverty

The Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COSIT), a branch of the Iraqi Planning and Development Ministry, conducted a countrywide survey that was released on May 19, 2009 that found 23% of the nation was living in poverty. The poverty line was set at earning $66 per month, or $2.20 a day. The COSIT was expecting a higher rate, but discovered that the government’s food ration system provided a huge relief to many families, which kept them out of the bottom rung of society. Muthanna at 49%, Babil at 41% and Salahaddin at 40% had the highest rates of poverty. The three Kurdish provinces of Dohuk, 10%, Irbil, 3%, and Sulaymaniya, 3%, had the least.

The COSIT findings are similar to other recent reports on impoverishment in Iraq, and lower than previous accounts. The United Nations for example, puts the poverty rate at 22%. In November 2008 the World Food Programme released an analysis of Iraq’s food situation that included a breakdown of wealth across every district in Iraq that also said poverty hit 22% of the Iraqi population. Their report was more detailed and found that 40% of Iraq’s population lived in the two lowest quintiles of wealth in the country. It also showed that within provinces there were deep pockets of poverty that would be overlooked by the aggregate numbers found by the COSIT and U.N. Ibril for example was tied for the province with the lowest poverty rate by COSIT, yet in the Choman district 79-94% of the population lived in the poorest quintile, and in the Soran and Makhmur districts 50-75% of the population were in that lowest group. At the same time, the 2009 estimate is lower than 2007 when Oxfam estimated that 43% of the country was poor.

A Planning Ministry official said that the major causes of poverty in Iraq were unemployment, run down infrastructure, and corruption. A U.N. survey released in February 2009 found that the jobless rate in Iraq was 18% and underemployment 10%, but that among young people 15-29 years of age, it was 28%. When broken down by gender, young men 15-29 years old have a 57% unemployment rate, which was even higher for women. Iraq has also been consistently rated one of the most corrupt countries in the world. The German group Transparency International releases annual reports ranking countries by corruption. In 2003 Iraq was tied for 113 out of 133 with 1 being the least corrupt country in the world and 133 the worst. In 2004 Iraq went down to being tied for 129 out of 146. In 2005 It was tied for 137 out of 159, 2006 tied for 160 out of 163, 2007 178 out of 180. By 2008 Iraq was tied with Myanmar as the second most corrupt country in the world. Iraq’s infrastructure has also suffered through the Iran-Iraq War, the Gulf War, and the U.S. invasion, along with a decade of international sanctions. It was during the U.N. sanctions in 1995 that the country’s food ration system was created under the Oil-For-Food program. While the system is far from perfect, with the Trade Minister recently having to resign for abusing the program, it is one of the major safety nets in the country.

The COSIT survey is just the most recent report to come out of Iraq that gives a clearer picture of the humanitarian situation within the country. During the height of the fighting large parts of Iraq were off limits, even to the government. Now that violence is down, ministry officials, the United Nations, and non-government organizations are able to enter into most parts of the nation to study the plight of the people. What they are finding is that Iraq is still suffering from many economic hardships, but the numbers are not as high as people expected, and there is hope for improvement with greater access to the population.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Iraq among countries with highest levels of corruption – report,” 9/23/08
- “Poverty in Iraq in 2007 at 23% - COSIT,” 5/19/09

Cordesman, Anthony, “Iraq’s Insurgency and Civil Violence,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8/22/07

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Iraq Labour Force Analysis 2003-2008,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, January 2009
- “Karbala Governorate Profile,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, April 2009

IRIN, “IRAQ: Corruption undermining state food aid programme?” 5/19/09
- “IRAQ: Over 20 percent of Iraqis live below the poverty line,” 5/24/09

Reuters, “Iraq Trade Minister Resigns Over Corruption Scandal,” 5/25/09

World Food Programme, “Comprehensive Food Security & Vulnerability Analysis: Iraq,” November 2008

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

The State Of Ninewa Province

As reported here before, Ninewa is about to go through an important political transition as the provincial council will pass from the hands of the Kurds to the new Al-Hadbaa List. The leader of Al-Hadbaa has said that he wants to develop the economy of the province by encouraging the private sector. He believes that there are ample resources that could make Ninewa prosper. Whether that’s possible or not is yet to be seen. What is known is that Ninewa rates worse in education, health, and a number of other fields when compared to the Iraqi average, and it is the second most violent province in the country.

Population and Territory

Ninewa is the third largest province in Iraq in area, and the second most populated. It has 2,811,091 people, 9% of the country’s total. Only Baghdad has more. The province is divided into eight districts, Baaj, Hamdaniya, Hatra, Mosul, Shikhan, Sinjar, Tel Afar, and Tilkaif. Mosul, the provincial capital is the third largest city in Iraq behind Baghdad and Basra. The population is also a mix of Arabs, Kurds, Christians, and other smaller religious minorities. Sinjar, Tilkaif, and Shikhan are also disputed territories that have parts that the Kurds claim. This is the source of one of the major disputes between Arabs and Kurds in the province, and country.

Ninewa’s Population
Total: 2,811,091
Shikhan: 49,396
Hatra: 55,157
Baaj: 133,291
Hamdaniya: 143,462
Tilkaif: 190,403
Sinjar: 237,073
Tel Afar: 382,050
Mosul: 1,620,259

Security

Security was worse in Ninewa in the second half of 2007 before improving in 2008. By June 2008 there were approximately 300 security incidents. That jumped to 375 in September, but then declined afterwards, leveling off at around 225 incidents by November. Deaths have had a slow and steady decline during that same time period. In June there were around 130 deaths. That increased to 150 in July, and was at 100 by the end of 2008. In October Christians were also attacked in Mosul, which led almost 2,000 families to flee. 80% of those have now returned. In total, Ninewa still has around 19,100 families that were displaced during the violence there.

Education

Ninewa province rates worse in education, especially amongst women, compared to the rest of the country. In Iraq, 24% of women are illiterate. In Ninewa it ranges from 23% in Hamdaniya to a high of 60% in Hatra. That’s mainly because so few women attend school. Overall, 47% of women over ten years old have less than a primary education in Iraq. Only the Hamdaniya district at 44% beats that national average. Otherwise the rate goes from 52% of women with less than a primary education in Mosul up to 90% in Hatra. The men of Ninewa only do slightly better. In Iraq 11% of males are illiterate, compared to 12% in Ninewa. Sinjar and Hatra have the most illiteracy for men at 25% and 37% respectively. 31% of men over 10 years old have less than a primary education in the country, but in Ninewa it’s at 41%. Hamdaniya does the best at 27%, but the other eight districts range from 37%-68%.

Women Over 10 Years Old With Less Than Primary Education
Iraq: 47%
Hamdaniya: 44%
Mosul: 52%
Baaj: 53%
Ninewa: 58%
Tel Afar: 66%
Sinjar: 72%
Shikhan: 74%
Tilkaif: 76%
Hatra: 90%

Illiterate Women:
Iraq: 24%
Hamdaniya: 23%
Mosul: 24%
Ninewa: 30%
Baaj: 30%
Tilkaif: 31%
Tel Afar: 32%
Shikhan: 48%
Sinjar: 57%
Hatra: 60%

Men Over 10 Years Old With Less Than Primary Education
Iraq: 31%
Hamdaniya: 27%
Mosul: 37%
Tel Afar: 45%
Baaj: 45%
Sinjar: 46%
Shikhan: 49%
Tilkaif: 54%
Hatra: 68%

Illiterate Men
Iraq: 11%
Mosul: 8%
Hamdaniya: 9%
Tilkaif: 10%
Tel Afar: 15%
Baaj: 19%
Shikhan: 19%
Sinjar: 25%
Hatra: 37%

Employment

Similarly women do far worse than men in finding employment in Ninewa and in the country. In Iraq only 18% of women are employed or looking for a job. In only one district, Hatra at 30%, does Ninewa do better than that. Otherwise anywhere from 3% of women are in the labor force in Baaj and Tilkaif to up to 10% in Mosul and Hamdaniya. Female unemployment is also much higher in Ninewa, 35%, compared to the rest of the country, 13%. Tilkaif has the lowest unemployment rate for women at 9%, and Tel Afar matches the country’s rate at 13%. The remaining six districts however have unemployment for women ranging from 14% in Hamdaniya up to 62% in Hatra. Even for men, there is high unemployment in areas, even though more males are involved in the labor force than in Iraq overall. 81% of Iraqi men participate in the labor force, compared to 85% in Ninewa. Baaj 90% and Hatra 91% have the high numbers. Unemployment is still slightly higher in Ninewa, 13%, than the national average, 12%. Tel Afar, 21%, Shikhan, 23%, and Hatra, 33%, have the most jobless men.

Female Labor Force Participation 15-64 Years Old

Iraq: 18%
Ninewa: 8%
Baaj: 3%
Tilkaif: 3%
Tel Afar: 5%
Shikhan: 6%
Sinjar: 6%
Mosul: 10%
Hamdaniya: 10%
Hatra: 30%

Female Unemployment
Iraq: 13%
Ninewa: 35%
Tilkaif: 9%
Tel Afar: 13%
Hamdaniya: 14%
Sinjar: 14%
Shikhan: 30%
Baaj: 36%
Mosul: 40%
Hatra: 62%

Male Labor Force Participation 15-64
Iraq: 81%
Ninewa: 85%
Sinjar: 78%
Tel Afar: 81%
Hamdaniya: 82%
Mosul: 86%
Shikhan: 86%
Tilkaif: 87%
Baaj: 90%
Hatra: 91%

Male Unemployment
Iraq: 12%
Ninewa: 13%
Baaj: 3%
Hamdaniya: 8%
Sinjar: 9%
Mosul: 12%
Tilkaif: 13%
Tel Afar: 21%
Shikhan: 23%
Hatra: 33%

Poverty

The lack of jobs has resulted in high rates of poverty in the province. 22% of Iraqis are in the lowest per capita income quintile. In Ninewa that ranges from 57% in Tel Afar down to 25% in Mosul.

% In Lowest Per Capita Income Quintile

Iraq: 22%
Mosul: 25
Sinjar: 27%
Hamdaniya: 36%
Baaj: 37%
Tilkaif: 40%
Shikhan: 49%
Hatra: 54%
Tel Afar: 57%

Services

Services like electricity and water, are also limited in Ninewa. 52% of Iraq has more than eleven hours of power cuts or are not connected to the national network. In Sinjar and Baaj 100% of the residents have more than 11-hour electricity outages, followed by Hamdaniya 93%, Tilkaif 80%, and Shikhan 76%. Many Iraqis rely upon private generators or buy electricity for those that do to supplement the national power grid. 21% of Iraqis however have no alternative source of power, compared to 57% in Ninewa. Access to the water network is also limited in some parts of the province. Only in Tilkaif is the entire district connected to the water system. Otherwise anywhere from 7% in Mosul and Shikhan up to 83% in Sinjar, 86% in Hatra, and 100% in Baaj do not have access.

More Than 11 Hours Power Cut Or No Connection To Network
Iraq: 52%
Hatra: 15%
Tel Afar: 26%
Mosul: 50%
Shikhan: 76%
Tilkaif: 80%
Hamdaniya: 93%
Sinjar: 100%
Baaj: 100%

No Alternative Electricity Source
Iraq: 21%
Mosul: 7%
Shikhan: 17%
Tilkaif: 32%
Baaj: 37%
Sinjar: 49%
Hamdaniya: 59%
Hatra: 81%
Tel Afar: 90%

Not Connected to Water Network
Iraq: 26%
Tilkaif: 0%
Mosul: 7%
Shikhan: 7%
Hamdaniya: 20%
Tel Afar: 53%
Sinjar: 83%
Hatra: 86%
Baaj: 100%

Food

The majority of Iraqis depend upon the government’s food ration system, which is the largest in the world. There is still malnutrition in Iraq however. 22% of Iraqis face chronic malnutrition. Shikhan does the best in this department with only 11% affected, followed by Hatra 20%, and Hamdaniya 22%, while Baaj 42%, Sinjar and Tel Afar at 48% each do the worst.

Chronic Malnutrition
Iraq: 22%
Shikhan: 11%
Hatra: 20%
Hamdaniya: 22%
Tilkaif: 26%
Mosul: 27%
Baaj: 42%
Sinjar: 48%
Tel Afar: 48%

SOURCES

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Ninewa Governorate Profile,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, February 2009

Kamal, Adel, “new ninawa governor: no possibility of Kurdish alliance,” Niqash, 2/24/09

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Iraqi Christians Returning To Mosul,” 3/5/09

Reuters, “UN Says 1 Million Iraqis Lack Food,” 11/12/08

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Latest United Nations Numbers On Baghdad Province

Baghdad province is a paradox. It is one of the richest in the country, yet has pockets of deep poverty. Security is improving throughout the country and the capital, but it still has the most violence. Electricity production has increased yet half of Baghdad suffers from sever power outages. The United Nations’ Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit recently released a paper detailing the situation in the capital province.

Population

Baghdad has the largest, most urbanized population in Iraq. There are 7,145,470 people there, which is 24% of the total population. 87% live in urban areas, 13% in rural ones. The province is divided into nine major districts: Abu Ghraib, Adhamiyah, Kadhimiyah, Karkh, Madain, Mahmudiya, Resafa, Sadr City aka Thawra, and Tarmia.

Population
Baghdad: 7,145,470
Abu Ghraib: 326,626
Adhamiyah: 842,310
Kadhimiyah: 832,310
Karkh: 1,624,057
Madain: 332,883
Mahmudiya 496,053
Resafa: 1,312,052
Sadr City: 1,316,583
Tarmia: 62,147

Security

The security situation in Baghdad has improved with the rest of the country, but it is still the most dangerous area in the country. From June to December 2008 there was a steady decline in security incidents with one large increase from August to October that subsequently leveled off. At the beginning of June there were around 400 security incidents a month in the province. That declined to around 300 in August, but then increased to almost 550 by October. Since then they have decreased to around 250 by the end of 2008. The U.S. military has much more in depth reporting than the U.N. and found that attacks went from 2,221 a month in April 2008 to 713 in December.

Displaced

Baghdad faced the most displacement in the country during the sectarian war. After the Samarra Shiite shrine bombing in February 2006 1.6 million Iraqis became internal refugees. Over 60% of those came from the capital. Today there are 90,731 displaced families in the province, the largest amount in the country. Some Iraqis have begun to return, although it’s still a small percentage of the total. The International Organization for Migration recorded 31,521 families coming back to Baghdad so far as of February 2009. They face a variety of problems including finding jobs, permanent housing, and services.

Employment

Iraq’s unemployment rate matches that of the country’s. Iraq has 18% unemployment. 12% of males in the capital are unemployed, compared to 20% for women. 83% of the male population was involved in the labor force compared to 81% in the country. Unemployment for them was concentrated in Resafa and Sadr City that had double-digit joblessness. As a recent U.N. report found very few women are involved in Iraq’s economy. Only 11% of Baghdad province’s women were either employed or looking for work, compared to 18% in the country. There are wide differences between the districts however. In Mahmudiya and Tarmia 76% and 67% of women respectively were involved in the labor force. In Sadr City it was only 8%. Jobs for women are directly related to education. 43% of women over 10 years old in the province lack a primary education. The U.N. employment study found that women needed a college education to find steady work.

Employment in Baghdad

Male Unemployment (15-64 years old)
Iraq 12%
Tarmia 1%
Abu Ghraib 3%
Adhamiyah 3%
Mahmudiya 3%
Karkh 6%
Kadhimiyah 8%
Madain 8%
Baghdad 12%
Sadr City 15%
Resafa 16%

Males In Labor Force (15-64 years old)
Iraq 81%
Baghdad 83%
Karkh 75%
Mahmudiya 81%
Resafa 82%
Sadr City 83%
Adhamiyah 85%
Madain 85%
Kadhimiyah 83%
Abu Ghraib 87%
Tarmia 96%

Female Unemployment (15-64 years old)
Iraq 13%
Mahmudiya 0%
Tarmia 1%
Abu Ghraib 2%
Madain 5%
Karkh 7%
Sadr City 12%
Adhamiyah 13%
Kadhimiyah 17%
Baghdad 20%
Resafa 23%

Females In Labor Force (15-64 years old)
Iraq 18%
Sadr City 8%
Baghdad 11%
Resafa 16%
Kadhimiyah 17%
Karkh 19%
Madain 27%
Adhamiyah 28%
Abu Ghraib 49%
Tarmia 67%
Mahmudiya 76%

Poverty

Baghdad is one of the richest provinces in the country, but still has pockets of poverty. In Adhamiyah the U.N. found no families in the lowest income quintile. In Abu Ghraib (1%), Karkh (1%), Kadhimiyah (2%), and Resafa (4%) there was also little poverty. That compared to Sadr City (16%), Madain (20%), and Mahmudiya (20%) where poverty was the highest.

% of households in the lowest income quintile
Iraq 22%
Adhamiyah 0%
Abu Ghraib 1%
Karkh 1%
Kadhimiyah 2%
Resafa 4%
Tarmia 12%
Sadr City 16%
Madain 20%
Mahmudiya 20%

Electricity

The Electricity Minister recently announced that Iraq had surpassed pre-war levels of power production. The problem remains that output does not meet demand. The capital is a perfect example. In Karkh, Sadr City, Resafa, and Adhamiyah more than half the population has power cuts for more than 11 hours a day. Abu Ghraib on the other hand has the best electricity supply in the province with only 2% suffering from long power outages.

% of households with more than 11 hours of power cuts or no connection to electricity network
Iraq 52%
Abu Ghraib 2%
Tarmia 29%
Mahmudiya 33%
Madain 40%
Karkh 60%
Sadr City 67%
Kadhimiyah 67%
Resafa 70%
Adhamiyah 76%

Water

Baghdad’s water supply is quite good. 10% of the province compared to 26% in the country is connected to the water network. Only Mahmudiya has a real problem with almost 50% having no access.

% of households not connected to water network
Iraq 26%
Abu Ghraib 0%
Adhamiyah 0%
Kadhimiyah 0%
Karkh 0%
Sadr City 0%
Tarmia 0%
Resafa 5%
Madain 7%
Baghdad 10%
Mahmudiya 47%

Food

Most Iraqis depend upon the country’s food rations, which are the largest in the world. That hasn’t prevented problems with malnutrition however. 22% of Iraqis, and 21% of Baghdad have children five years and younger that suffer from chronic malnutrition. The districts worst affected are Sadr City, Kadhimiyah, and Adhamiyah, while Abu Ghraib, Mahmudiya, and Tarmia have the fewest incidents.

% of children 0-5 years old with chronic malnutrition
Iraq 22%
Baghdad 21%
Abu Ghraib 4%
Mahmudiya 6%
Tarmia 6%
Resafa 14%
Madain 16%
Karkh 18%
Sadr City 20%
Kadhimiyah 32%
Adhamiyah 42%

Health


Baghdad overall does better than the rest of the country in terms of chronic diseases. 8% of the province reported being affected by them compared to 9% in Iraq. Tarmia did the best with only 4% reporting chronic cases, but that compared to Karkh, Kadhimiyah, Abu Ghraib, Sadr City, Adhamiyah, and Resafa that were all in double digits.

% of individuals with chronic disease

Iraq 9%
Baghdad 8%
Tarmia 4%
Mahmudiya 8%
Madain 9%
Kadhimiyah 10%
Karkh 10%
Abu Ghraib 11%
Sadr City 12%
Adhamiyah 14%
Resafa 15%

SOURCES

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Baghdad Governorate Profile,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, February 2009
- “Iraq Labour Force Analysis 2003-2008,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, January 2009

International Organization for Migration, “Three Years Of Post-Samarra Displacement In Iraq,” 2/22/09

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Iraq’s Electricity Production Surpasses Prewar Level,” 2/19/09

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, "Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress," 1/30/09

Monday, March 02, 2009

February 2008 UNICEF Report on Iraq

UNICEF recently released a report on Iraq. It not only focused upon the country’s children, but health, education, poverty, and the displaced. The organization said that with the reduction in violence there was greater access to Iraq’s communities. That was revealing more examples of poverty and deprivation than anyone knew about previously.

The biggest issue UNICEF reported on was a developing measles threat. It said that nine provinces had reported measles affecting 6,000 people since early 2008. The Iraqi Ministry of Health is worried that it could spread. Najaf, Sulamaniya, Irbil, Maysan, and Dohuk were endangered by this disease, while a more recent report from the United Nations’ IRIN news agency said that Salahaddin, Tamim, Anbar, Diyala, Baghdad, Babil and Dhi Qar were hit the hardest. Most victims were small children under the age of six. Government officials said that the main cause of the spread of measles was the lack of security, which kept health workers out of many areas.

The United Nations agency also went to a few schools in the northern provinces of Diyala, Irbil, and Dohuk. All of them were lacking basic services, especially access to clean water. In Dohuk the schools lacked bathrooms, while children in two villages in Irbil were suffering from water born diseases.

The displaced was another issue the report dealt with. In Tamim, 900 children were found begging on the streets of Kirkuk. 100 of them were orphans. Around half were internal refugees. All of them were trying to support their impoverished families. Internal refugees that were returning to the province lacked shelter, and access to water and sanitation. In Basra 250 squatters in an old navy had no sanitation, health care, or clean water. On the positive side 1,325 displaced families returned to the city of Mosul in Ninewa.

In 2008 Iraq suffered a sever drought. The worst hit areas were in the north. UNICEF traveled to Irbil and Ninewa and saw the drought’s lingering effects. In two areas of Irbil there was high poverty exacerbated by the lack of water that destroyed their farms, which were also their main source of food.

Examples of impoverishment were also found in Anbar. The outskirts of the province had deep poverty. Two areas by Ramadi that suffered because of the violence are now improving because the government has started programs for children. They still lack adequate health, sanitation and other basic services however.

The last part of the report detailed the various projects UNICEF was working on in Iraq. So far, the organization has committed $8 million for humanitarian projects in 59 communities. Those have mainly focused upon water, schools, and health campaigns. The major problem is that United Nations can hardly meet its obligations. UNICEF is short 89% of the money it needs for its various programs.

UNICEF is hoping that the provincial elections will lead to more responsible local governments that will address the needs of the country’s children. They are afraid about the spread of measles. The lack of services is also a large problem across the country. Iraq’s infrastructure has not been kept up because of the violence. Even as that has declined, there is still large-scale neglect. Finally poverty is another major issue. It has led to children begging, and kept them from going to school. More and more of these cases are being discovered as attacks have declined. The lack of money for both the United Nations and the Iraqi government after the fall in oil prices will probably mean these issues will not be solved any time soon however.

SOURCES

IRIN, “IRAQ: Measles emerges in violence-hit regions,” 2/24/09

UNICEF, “UNICEF Humanitarian Action Update Iraq,” 2/17/09

Monday, February 09, 2009

How Are The Current Provincial Councils Doing?

The early results for the provincial elections have been released. It will probably take several weeks for the winners to work out deals with some of the other Lists to form new coalitions to rule. While that is going on it might be a good time to review how the soon to be outgoing provincial councils did in 2008. These are numbers based upon the latest quarterly report to Congress by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR). The paper includes some of the latest statistics on Iraq’s eighteen provinces.

Budget

Budget execution has been an on-going problem for the Iraqi provinces. Ninewa which is currently ruled by the Kurds did the worst in that regards spending only 7% of its budget largely due to the security situation. They were followed by the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) in Baghdad with 12%, and the Dawa-SIIC controlled Diyala with 18%. The Supreme Council did a much better job in Najaf with 95%. The Sadrist were second in Maysan with 79%, and the Islamic Party third in Anbar with 69%. Those aggregate numbers however may not mean that the councils actually accomplished much. First Iraq’s government at all levels has always spent a large amount of its operational budget that pays for wages, bills and benefits, but always lagged on its capital budget that includes investing in infrastructure and reconstruction. Second, even if a province spent most of the latter, it may not have been spent well. The Sadrists of Maysan for example, might have expended 79% of their budget, but as reported before they only finished 41 of 241 development projects in 2008.

Who Currently Rules Province And % of 2008 Budget Spent:
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): Kurds - N/A
Ninewa: Kurds - 7%
Baghdad: SIIC - 12%
Diyala: SIIC - 18%
Qadisiyah: SIIC - 25%
Karbala: SIIC - 33%
Muthanna: SIIC - 36%
Basra: Fadhila - 37%
Dhi Qar: SIIC - 38%
Salahaddin: Kurds - 49%
Wasit: 50%
Tamim: 54%
Babil: SIIC - 58%
Anbar: Iraqi Islamic Party - 69%
Maysan: Sadrists - 79%
Najaf: SIIC - 95%

Electricity

One of the major issues in the January 2009 election was the provision of services, which are still sorely lacking in many parts of the country. Demand for electricity still outweighs supply. Wasit had the worst performance meeting only 48.1% of demand. Maysan 50.4%, Babil 51.0%, and Najaf 51.5% were almost as bad. The three provinces of Kurdistan, Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya did the best job at 83.9%, followed by Diyala 83.0%, and Tamim 82.6%.

Average Electricity Supply & Demand Per Day (Megawatts/Hour) - % Demand Met
Wasit: 2,724/5,655 – 48.1%
Maysan: 2,566/5,090 – 50.4%
Babil: 4,039/7,915 – 51.0%
Najaf: 3,594/6,973 – 51.5%
Karbala: 2,883/5,092 – 56.6%
Qadisiyah: 3,077/4,711 – 65.3%
Baghdad: 31,714/48,420 – 65.4%
Ninewa: 10,587/15,972 – 66.2%
Muthanna: 2,532/3,770 – 67.1%
Basra: 12,032/17,148 – 70.1%
Dhi Qar: 5,404/7,536 – 71.7%
Anbar: 4,589/6,206 – 73.9%
Salahaddin: 5,459/7,186 – 75.9%
Tamim: 5,094/6,162 – 82.6%
Diyala: 3,623/4,362 – 83.0%
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): 14,627/17,426 – 83.9%

Water

Access to potable water is greatly improving in many provinces, with a few still in bad shape. Kurdistan had the worst water supply at 40%, followed by Diyala 54%, and Muthanna 65%. Tamim, Basra, Babil, Dhi Qar, and Maysan all did the best job providing their residents with water 90% of more of the time. Again, these aggregate numbers hide wide disparities within provinces.

Access To Potable Water:
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): 40%
Diyala: 54%
Muthanna: 65%
Karbala: 71%
Ninewa: 71%
Salahaddin: 71%
Qadisiyah: 76%
Najaf: 83%
Anbar: 84%
Baghdad: 89%
Wasit: 89%
Maysan: 91%
Dhi Qar: 94%
Babil: 97%
Basra: 98%
Tamim: 98%

Poverty

Along with a lack of services, poverty is another major issue that Iraqis face. The SIGIR used numbers based upon a United Nations World Food Program report from November 2008 discussed here before. The UN broke Iraq’s population up into five income groups, and found large swaths of the country lived in the bottom two. The poorest provinces were Qadisiyah and Karbala, while the best off were Baghdad and Basra. The latter two are both the economic and political hubs of the country, which could account for their relative lack of poverty compared to the rest of the country.

% Of Families In The Poorest Of Five Income Groups
Baghdad: 5%
Basra: 11%
Najaf: 13%
Salahaddin: 14%
Maysan: 16%
Diyala: 18%
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): 19%
Wasit: 20%
Anbar: 24%
Dhi Qar: 27%
Babil: 28%
Muthanna: 28%
Ninewa: 31%
Tamim: 31%
Karbala: 36%
Qadisiyah: 37%

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “41 out of 241 projects implemented in Missan,” 12/30/08

Knights, Michael and McCarthy, Eamon, “Provincial Politics in Iraq: Fragmentation or New Awakening?” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 2008

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report and Semiannual report to the United States Congress,” 1/30/09The early results for the provincial elections have been released. It will probably take several weeks for the winners to work out deals with some of the other Lists to form new coalitions to rule. While that is going on it might be a good time to review how the soon to be outgoing provincial councils did in 2008. These are numbers based upon the latest quarterly report to Congress by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR). The paper includes some of the latest statistics on Iraq’s eighteen provinces.

Budget

Budget execution has been an on-going problem for the Iraqi provinces. Ninewa which is currently ruled by the Kurds did the worst in that regards spending only 7% of its budget largely due to the security situation. They were followed by the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) in Baghdad with 12%, and the Dawa-SIIC controlled Diyala with 18%. The Supreme Council did a much better job in Najaf with 95%. The Sadrist were second in Maysan with 79%, and the Islamic Party third in Anbar with 69%. Those aggregate numbers however may not mean that the councils actually accomplished much. First Iraq’s government at all levels has always spent a large amount of its operational budget that pays for wages, bills and benefits, but always lagged on its capital budget that includes investing in infrastructure and reconstruction. Second, even if a province spent most of the latter, it may not have been spent well. The Sadrists of Maysan for example, might have expended 79% of their budget, but as reported before they only finished 41 of 241 development projects in 2008.

Who Currently Rules Province And % of 2008 Budget Spent:
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): Kurds - N/A
Ninewa: Kurds - 7%
Baghdad: SIIC - 12%
Diyala: SIIC - 18%
Qadisiyah: SIIC - 25%
Karbala: SIIC - 33%
Muthanna: SIIC - 36%
Basra: Fadhila - 37%
Dhi Qar: SIIC - 38%
Salahaddin: Kurds - 49%
Wasit: 50%
Tamim: 54%
Babil: SIIC - 58%
Anbar: Iraqi Islamic Party - 69%
Maysan: Sadrists - 79%
Najaf: SIIC - 95%

Electricity

One of the major issues in the January 2009 election was the provision of services, which are still sorely lacking in many parts of the country. Demand for electricity still outweighs supply. Wasit had the worst performance meeting only 48.1% of demand. Maysan 50.4%, Babil 51.0%, and Najaf 51.5% were almost as bad. The three provinces of Kurdistan, Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya did the best job at 83.9%, followed by Diyala 83.0%, and Tamim 82.6%.

Average Electricity Supply & Demand Per Day (Megawatts/Hour) - % Demand Met
Wasit: 2,724/5,655 – 48.1%
Maysan: 2,566/5,090 – 50.4%
Babil: 4,039/7,915 – 51.0%
Najaf: 3,594/6,973 – 51.5%
Karbala: 2,883/5,092 – 56.6%
Qadisiyah: 3,077/4,711 – 65.3%
Baghdad: 31,714/48,420 – 65.4%
Ninewa: 10,587/15,972 – 66.2%
Muthanna: 2,532/3,770 – 67.1%
Basra: 12,032/17,148 – 70.1%
Dhi Qar: 5,404/7,536 – 71.7%
Anbar: 4,589/6,206 – 73.9%
Salahaddin: 5,459/7,186 – 75.9%
Tamim: 5,094/6,162 – 82.6%
Diyala: 3,623/4,362 – 83.0%
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): 14,627/17,426 – 83.9%

Water

Access to potable water is greatly improving in many provinces, with a few still in bad shape. Kurdistan had the worst water supply at 40%, followed by Diyala 54%, and Muthanna 65%. Tamim, Basra, Babil, Dhi Qar, and Maysan all did the best job providing their residents with water 90% of more of the time. Again, these aggregate numbers hide wide disparities within provinces.

Access To Potable Water:
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): 40%
Diyala: 54%
Muthanna: 65%
Karbala: 71%
Ninewa: 71%
Salahaddin: 71%
Qadisiyah: 76%
Najaf: 83%
Anbar: 84%
Baghdad: 89%
Wasit: 89%
Maysan: 91%
Dhi Qar: 94%
Babil: 97%
Basra: 98%
Tamim: 98%

Poverty

Along with a lack of services, poverty is another major issue that Iraqis face. The SIGIR used numbers based upon a United Nations World Food Program report from November 2008 discussed here before. The UN broke Iraq’s population up into five income groups, and found large swaths of the country lived in the bottom two. The poorest provinces were Qadisiyah and Karbala, while the best off were Baghdad and Basra. The latter two are both the economic and political hubs of the country, which could account for their relative lack of poverty compared to the rest of the country.

% Of Families In The Poorest Of Five Income Groups
Baghdad: 5%
Basra: 11%
Najaf: 13%
Salahaddin: 14%
Maysan: 16%
Diyala: 18%
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): 19%
Wasit: 20%
Anbar: 24%
Dhi Qar: 27%
Babil: 28%
Muthanna: 28%
Ninewa: 31%
Tamim: 31%
Karbala: 36%
Qadisiyah: 37%

SOURCES
Aswat al-Iraq, “41 out of 241 projects implemented in Missan,” 12/30/08
Knights, Michael and McCarthy, Eamon, “Provincial Politics in Iraq: Fragmentation or New Awakening?” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 2008
Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report and Semiannual report to the United States Congress,” 1/30/09

Monday, January 05, 2009

Maysan Province Remains Underdeveloped


At the end of December 2008, a spokesman for Maysan announced that of 241 projects planned for the province, only 41 had been completed. Those that were finished covered water, roads, sewage, communication, health, education, and local administration. Maysan is in extreme need of development as it is one of the poorest in the country, this despite the fact that it is rich in oil resources.

Maysan suffers from extreme poverty and a lack of services. According to the United Nations World Food Program, in all six of Maysan’s districts 50-94% of the population lives in absolute poverty. The World Food Program divided Iraq up into five economic groups. In the districts of Amara, al-Kahla, Qalat Saleh, and al-Maimouna 79-94% of the population lived in the poorest of the five. In the remaining two districts of Ali al-Gharbi and al-Meja al-Kabi 50-75% were in that group. The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) reported that 64% of the population was below the poverty line. It found that the province had some of the lowest levels of services such as electricity, schools, and medical care in the country. It reported that the situation was so bad that it was “population-repelling.” The U.S. Provincial Reconstruction Team there found that the economy actually declined from the end of November 2007 to the end of February 2008, and gave it the lowest rating of any of Iraq’s eighteen provinces.

The lack of development can be seen in the employment numbers. 43% of the province works for the government. Despite American efforts to privatize the country since the invasion, much of the country still relies upon the state, which provides the steadiest source of income. After that 29% are self-employed and 25% work in farming. Cheap imports, a lack of tariffs, and a cut in subsidies has wracked both of these sectors of the economy.

Maysan finds itself in this predicament despite the fact that it has a large amount of oil and the provincial government spends a fair share of its capital budget. According to an Oil Ministry official, the province has 15-20% of the country’s oil reserves, and produces around 180,000 barrels a day. It could be producing more, but a lack of equipment, experience, and corruption, which are rampant throughout all sections of the country, and all levels of government, is preventing it. The provincial council, which is controlled by the Sadrists, has also done a good job spending its reconstruction money compared to the rest of Iraq. In 2007 it spent $39 million of its $76 million capital budget, 51%. That was the third most in the country behind Kurdistan and Najaf. In the October 2008 SIGIR report Maysan was again at the top having spent 41% of its capital monies up to that date. That was the fifth most in the country. Despite these high percentages, the money appears not to have been spent well as only a small fraction of the projects were actually completed this year. The competency of the bureaucrats there has to be questioned if they spend that much money, but garner so few results. More importantly, neither oil nor reconstruction appears to have had an affect upon the general population. This is true of the entire country.

The province’s announcement of completing only 17% of its planned projects is only the latest bad news for Maysan. Oil reserves and relatively high spending of its budget have not helped the province get out of poverty. The jobs available outside of the government are limited in what they can offer because Iraq’s economy has been hobbled since the invasion. Maysan provides an extreme example of the problems the entire country faces. Despite having the third largest oil reserves in the world and a massive reconstruction program led by the United States, Iraq still finds itself relatively poor compared to most of its Arab neighbors. Little of the money spent or the oil produced has benefited the average Iraqi. Whether the country can ever overcome these problems is an open question.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “41 out of 241 projects implemented in Missan,” 12/30/08

Al Jazeera, “Oil-rich Amara left high and dry,” 12/24/08

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/08
- “Quarterly report to the United States Congress,” 10/30/08

World Food Programme, “Comprehensive Food Security & Vulnerability Analysis: Iraq,” November 2008

Monday, December 01, 2008

Iraqi Al-Amal Association and Baghdad University’s Public Opinion Poll On Poverty In Iraq

The University of Baghdad and the Iraqi Al-Amal Association recently released a public opinion poll they conducted on poverty in Iraq. Khalid Kahntoush Sachet of the College of Arts oversaw the study. It surveyed 11,198 families from ten provinces. The survey found that there were a large number of female-headed households due to wives losing their husbands because of violence. Iraqi families also had large numbers of children. Together these increased the poverty level in the country, as women can’t provide as much as men, and the size of Iraqi families have increased while the economy has not. Almost two-thirds of the families interviewed were found to be below the international poverty line, and few receive any help. They still believed in the government however, and most wanted to participate in the upcoming elections.

Families

The first questions were about the state of the families. 59.4% were headed by males, while 39.9% were headed by women. Most Middle Eastern families have male heads of households, so this was a very high percentage led by women. The cause is the violence that has wracked the country. Of those women leaders, 65.6% were widowed. The number of people in each family was also large, usually between 6-10, 49.3%, followed by 1-5, 43%. This increased poverty, as the economy has not as grown as fast as the size of families, leading to unemployment. 65.9% of families earned 250,000 dinars or less. That equaled roughly $420 a year for each family member, below the $500 international poverty level. 60.5% of those interviewed were displaced. Of those, 87.1% said they wanted to return to their homes if security improved.

Aid and Needs

The majority of families were in need of basic services, but received little aid official or otherwise. In terms of the government, only 31.5% of those surveyed received aid from any ministries or local governments. The Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, which is responsible for the poor, only helped 12.9%. The Ministry of Displacement and Migration only helped 9.3%. Local councils assisted 6.5%. 68.5% received no government assistance at all. Non-government organizations (NGOs) did much better, aiding 50.8%. That still left a large percentage of the population sample without any help. Despite this, 74.3% believed that the government could assist them in some way.

The basic needs of the families broke down into three groups, which the study called security – electricity 22.3%, water 20.3%, and housing/shelter 10.1%, employment – food 9.3%, jobs 9.3%, money 9.2%, and services – fuel 8.9%, health care 7.8%, and schools 2.4%.

Provincial Elections

58.1% of respondents said they wanted to vote in the upcoming elections, with 23% were undecided, and 18.9% said they would not participate. When asked what kind of party they would vote for independents came in first, 26.3%, followed by democratic-secular groups 23.7%, and religious parties 22.7%. Tribal figures 7.3% and national blocs 6.3% came in last. When broken down by province, the democratic-secular parties fared the best, coming in first in Baghdad, Diyala, and Sulaymaniya, and second in Salahaddin, Anbar, Najaf, and Qadisiyah. Independents came in first in Basra, and second in Baghdad, Tamim, and Diyala, while the religious parties came in first in Qadisiyah, Salahaddin, and Najaf, and second in Babil. Basra had the most telling responses. The Shiite Fadhila party currently runs the province, but 70.2% said they would vote for independent figures instead. When unidentified was added to that the number came to 90.3% who did not support the current ruling parties. Tribal figures were also only popular in Anbar due to the Awakening. As discussed before, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is currently forming Tribal Support Councils across much of the country. According to this poll, that may not help him much as they registered less than 10% or less in every province outside of Anbar.

For more on Iraqi public opinion see:

Iraq Center for Research & Strategic Studies’ Survey Of Iraqis

Pentagon Public Opinion Poll of Iraqis

Here are the results of the poll.

The survey questioned 11,198 families from 10 provinces

Origins
Anbar: 801 families – 7.1%
Babil: 981 families – 8.8%
Baghdad: 2729 families – 24.4%
Basra: 2000 families – 17.9%
Diyala: 810 families – 7.2%
Najaf: 900 families – 8%
Qadisiyah: 800 families – 7.1%
Salahaddin: 1140 families – 10.2%
Sulaymaniya: 800 families – 7.1%
Tamim: 237 families – 2.1%

Head of Household
Male: 6654 – 59.4%
Female: 4463 – 39.9%
Unidentified: 81 – 0.7%

Marital Status of Female Headed Households
Single: 336 – 7.5%
Unidentified: 518 – 11.6%
Divorced: 683 – 15.3%
Widowed: 2926 – 65.6%

Number of Family Members
Unidentified: 51 – 0.5%
More than 21: 12 – 0.1%
16-20 Members: 48 – 0.4%
11-15 Members: 749 – 6.7%
6-10 Members: 5524 – 49.3%
1-5 Members: 4814 – 43%

Monthly Family Income
Unidentified: 1289 – 11.5%
More than 500,000 dinars: 316 – 2.8%
351,000-500,000 dinars: 680 – 6.1%
250,000-350,000 dinars: 1530 – 13.7%
Less than 250,000 dinars: 7383 – 65.9%

International Poverty line is $500 a year per family member
Iraq averages to $420 a year per family member

Official Aid
Ministry of Endowment: 311 – 2.8%
City Council: 725 – 6.5%
Ministry of Displacement and Migration: 1045 – 9.3%
Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs: 1447 – 12.9%
No Aid: 7670 – 68.5%

Non-Official Aid
Religious Organization: 1374 – 12.3%
Red Cross/Red Crescent: 1972 – 17.6%
International Non-Government Organization: 2337 – 20.9%
No Aid: 5515 – 49.2%

Would Displaced Families Return To Their Homes If Security Improved
Yes: 5905 – 87.1%
No: 876 – 12.9%

Basic Needs of Family
Others: 34 – 0.1%
Schooling: 773 – 2.4%
Health Care: 2551 – 7.8%
Fuel: 2902 – 8.9%
Money: 3000 – 9.2%
Jobs: 3029 – 9.3%
Food: 3121 – 9.6%
Housing/Shelter: 3256 – 10.1%
Water: 6626 – 20.3%
Electricity: 7286 – 22.3%

Can The Government Meet Their Needs Or Not
Unidentified: 461 – 4.1%
Unable: 2419 – 21.6%
To An Extent: 4142 – 37%
Able: 4176 – 37.3%

Desire To Vote In Upcoming Elections
Won’t vote: 2115 – 18.9%
Undecided: 2577 – 23%
Will vote: 6506 – 58.1%

What Kind of Parties Will They Vote For
National blocs: 706 – 6.3%
Tribal Figures: 822 – 7.3%
Unidentified: 1138 – 12.4%
Religious Parties: 2545 – 22.7%
Democratic-Secular blocs: 2639 – 23.7%
Independent Figures: 2947 – 26.3%

What Kind Of Parties Will They Vote For By Province
Anbar:
  • Unidentified: 2 – 0.2%
  • Religious Parties: 52 – 6.5%
  • National blocs: 4 – 0.5%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 273 – 34.7%
  • Independent Figures: 79 – 9.9%
  • Tribal Figures: 391 – 48.8%
Babil:
  • Unidentified: 551 – 56.2%
  • Religious Parties: 182 – 18.6%
  • National blocs: 8 – 0.8%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 111 – 11.3%
  • Independent Figures: 114 – 11.6%
  • Tribal Figures: 15 – 1.5%
Baghdad:
  • Unidentified: 427 – 15.6%
  • Religious Parties: 579 – 21.2%
  • National blocs: 106 – 3.9%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 828 – 30.3%
  • Independent Figures: 656 – 24.0%
  • Tribal Figures: 133 – 4.9%
Basra:
  • Unidentified: 401 – 20.1%
  • Religious Parties: 72 – 3.6%
  • National blocs: 2 – 0.1%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 73 – 3.7%
  • Independent Figures: 1404 – 70.2%
  • Tribal Figures: 48 – 2.4%
Diyala:
  • Unidentified: 42 – 5.2%
  • Religious Parties: 149 – 18.4%
  • National blocs: 47 – 5.7%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 270 – 33.3%
  • Independent Figures: 262 – 32.3%
  • Tribal Figures: 41 – 5.1%
Najaf:
  • Unidentified: 9 – 1.0%
  • Religious Parties: 388 – 43.1%
  • National blocs: 56 – 6.2%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 234 – 26.0%
  • Independent Figures: 120 – 13.3%
  • Tribal Figures: 93 – 10.3%
Qadisiyah:
  • Unidentified: 8 – 1.0%
  • Religious Parties: 461 – 57.6%
  • National blocs: 39 – 4.9%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 144 – 18.0%
  • Independent Figures: 128 – 16.0%
  • Tribal Figures: 20 – 2.5%
Salahaddin:
  • Unidentified: 16 – 1.4%
  • Religious Parties: 487 – 42.7%
  • National blocs: 135 – 11.8%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 388 – 34.0%
  • Independent Figures: 69 – 6.1%
  • Tribal Figures: 45 – 3.9%
Sulaymaniya:
  • Unidentified: 63 – 8.4%
  • Religious Parties: 159 – 19.9%
  • National blocs: 195 – 24.4%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 307 – 38.4%
  • Independent Figures: 55 – 6.9%
  • Tribal Figures: 21 – 2.6%
Tamim:
  • Unidentified: 20 – 8.4%
  • Religious Parties: 16 – 6.8%
  • National blocs: 115 – 48.5%
  • Democratic-Secular blocs: 11 – 4.6%
  • Independent Figures: 60 – 25.3%
  • Tribal Figures: 15 – 6.3%

What Should the United Nations Do In Iraq
Unidentified: 926 – 8.2%
Humanitarian Aid: 2530 – 22.6%
Supervise Elections: 2316 – 20.7%
Maintain Security: 5426 – 48.5%

SOURCES

Sachet, Khalid Hantoush, “Results of the Field Survey For Needs and Opinions of The Poor in Iraq,” Iraqi Al Amal Association and University of Baghdad, September 2008

Friday, November 21, 2008

United Nations’ World Food Program Report On Iraq

Map of food needs in Iraq

In November 2008 the United Nations’ World Food Program (WFP) released a report on the state of Iraq’s food situation. It found that those with inadequate access to food had gone down from 4 million in 2005 to 930,000 in 2008. This happened despite the increase in violence in the country, especially during the sectarian war period from 2006-2007. The reason for this decrease has been the massive food ration system the Iraqi government maintains, the largest in the world. The WFP and other groups are also providing aid. Without these handouts, up to 6.4 million people, one-quarter of the population, would lack adequate food. The rations are controlled by the Trade Ministry, which imports most of the goods.

The report warns that despite these gains, Iraq still has many problems; the thousands of internally displaced being a major one. The WFP called on Baghdad to improve its monitoring and services to the most vulnerable in Iraqi society. That may be harder in the future as Maliki’s government has plans to end the rations and move towards more of a welfare type system.

The World Food Program’s paper also provided statistics on the standard of living for Iraqis. They found poverty to be rampant across much of the country, which had a direct affect upon access to food. The WFP divided up Iraqis into five groups from richest to poorest. One district in Dhi Qar, Diyala, Irbil, Karbala, Muthanna, and Najaf, two in Sulaymaniya, half of Ninewa, and most of Maysan and Qadisiyah had populations 75-94% in the poorest group. One district in Basra, Karbala, and Najaf, one and a half districts in Salahaddin, two in Irbil, Muthanna, Ninewa, and Tamim, three in Maysan, half of Diyala, two-thirds of Karbala, most of Babil, Dhi Qar and Sulaymaniya, and all of Wasit had people 50-75% in the poorest group. In comparison there were only eight districts, and parts of four others that had 25% or less in poverty. The rural areas were also disproportionately impoverished compared to urban ones.

Wealth obviously has a direct affect upon the ability to obtain food, the major emphasis of the WFP report. They found that the poorest group had problems with food within a month 56% of the time. Even the richest group had problems 22%, while the entire country averaged 39%. In terms of the provinces, Karbala had the worst food situation with 82% of the residents facing food shortages, followed by Babil 77%, Najaf 70%, Qadisiyah 52%, and Dhi Qar 47%. It is no coincidence that these also happen to be some of the poorest provinces in the country and are concentrated in the south. At the other end of the spectrum, Sulaymaniya 14%, Diyala 15%, Basra 16%, and Irbil 17% had the least problems with food. Overall, 35% of the country had problems with their rations. The most vulnerable group were the internally displaced, 67% of which said they had not registered to receive their food rations when they moved. The World Food Program is providing help to 750,000 of these types of refugees.

In terms of jobs, the government was the largest employer, accounting for 37%. That was followed by self-employed, but not in farming at 25%, self-employed farmers at 14%, non-skilled labor at 11%, skilled labor 8%, and farm workers 4%. After wages, the largest source of income was remittances from relatives abroad pointing to the huge refugee population of Iraqis.

Below are some of those numbers from the World Food Program report.

Note: Most of the following are estimates based upon charts in the World Food Program’s Report on Iraq.

Wealth Index – Iraq Overall
Note: The World Food Program divided up Iraqi society into five wealth categories: poorest, second, third, fourth, richest.
- 20% in poorest group
- 20% in second group
- 23% in richest

Wealth Index – Urban vs Rural
Poorest: Urban 9% Rural 47%
Second: Urban 18% Rural 19%
Third: Urban 20% Rural 16%
Fourth: Urban 22% Rural 11%
Richest: Urban 35% Rural 5%

Wealth Index By Province – Richest To Poorest
Baghdad 5% poorest – 34% richest
Dohuk 17% poorest – 30% richest
Tamim 8% poorest – 23% richest
Irbil 13% poorest – 23% richest
Anbar 10% poorest – 22% richest
Basra 11% poorest – 21% richest
Sulaymaniya 15% poorest – 20% richest
Salahaddin 18% poorest – 18% richest
Karbala 27% poorest – 18% richest
Diyala 26% poorest – 15% richest
Ninewa 30% poorest – 17% richest
Muthanna 37% poorest – 17% richest
Dhi Qar 35% poorest – 15% richest
Maysan 30% poorest – 10% richest
Babil 35% poorest – 10% richest
Wasit 35% poorest – 8% richest
Qadisiyah 45% poorest – 8% richest

Wealth Index By Districts

Numbers before each district match numbers on the map

75-94% Of The Population In Poorest Wealth Group By Province - District
Dhi Qar – 10 Al-Chibayish
Diyala – 78 Kifri
Irbil – 66 Choman
Karbala – 4 Ain Al-Tamur
Maysan – 26 Al-Kahla, 34 Al-Maimouna, 86 Qalat Saleh
Muthanna – 49 Al-Salman
Najaf – 35 Al-Manathera
Ninewa – 8 Al-Baaj, 20 Hatra, 93 Sinjar, 98 Telefar
Qadisiyah – 3 Afaq, 18 Hamza, 51 Al-Shamiya
Sulaymaniya – 84 Penjwin, 90 Sharbazher

50-75% Of The Population In Poorest Wealth Group By Province - District
Anbar – 48 Al Rutba
Babil – 19 Hashimiya, 22 Hilla, 31 Al-Madain, 32 Al-Mahawil, 40 Al-Musayab
Basra – 37 Al-Midaina
Dhi Qar – 43 Nassriya, 46 Al-Rifai, 52 Al-Shatra, 97 Suq Al-Shoyokh
Diyala – 39 Al-Muqdadiya, 64 Baladrooz, 77 Khanaqin
Irbil – 94 Soran
Karbala – 23 Al-Hindiya
Maysan – 7 Amara, 36 Al-Mejar Al-Kabi, 57 Ali Al-Gharbi
Muthanna – 28 Al-Khidhir, 47 Al-Rumaitha
Najaf – 29 Kufa
Ninewa – 5 Akre, 17 Al-Hamdaniya
Salahaddin – 63 Balad, 88 50% of Samarra
Sulaymaniya – 65 Chamchamal, 70 Dokan, 73 50% of Halabja, 85 Pshdar, 87 Rania, 95 50% of Sulaymaniya
Tamim – 67 Daquq, 82 Makhmur
Wasit – 16 Al-Hai, 30 Kut, 41 Al-Namaniya, 55 Al-Suwaira, 61 Badra

25-50% Of The Population In Poorest Wealth Group By Province - District
Anbar – 2 Abu Ghraib, 24 Al Kaim, 25 Kadhimiya, 45 Ramadi, 59 Ana, 74 Heet
Baghdad – 6 50% of Adhamiya
Basra – 1 Abu Al-Khaseeb, 14 Fao, 44 Al-Qurna, 91 Shatt Al-Arab
Dohuk – 58 Amedi, 96 Sumel, 102 Zakho
Irbil – 71 50% of Irbil, 80 Koisnjaq, 83 Mergasur, 89 Shaqlawa
Karbala – 76 Karbala
Muthanna – 50 Al-Samawa
Najaf – 42 Najaf
Ninewa – 38 Mosul, 53 Al-Shikhan, 92 Shekhan, 100 Tilkaif
Qadisiyah – 12 Diwaniya
Salahaddin – 11 Al-Daur, 15 Al-Faris, 54 Al-Shirqat, 62 50% of Baiji, 88 50% of Samarra, 99 Tikrit, 101 Tooz
Sulaymaniya – 68 Darbandihkan, 73 50% of Halabja, 75 Kalar
Tamim – 21 Al-Hawiga, 79 Kirkuk

0-25% Of The Population In Poorest Wealth Group By Province - District
Anbar – 13 Fallujah, 72 Haditha
Babil – 33 Mahmudiya
Baghdad – 6 50% of Adhamiya
Basra – 9 Basra, 56 Al-Zubair
Diyala – 27 Al-Khalis, 60 Baquba
Dohuk – 69 Dohuk
Irbil – 71 50% of Irbil
Salahaddin – 62 50% of Baiji
Sulaymaniya – 95 50% of Sulaymaniya

Food Problems In Last 30 Days by Five Wealth Groups
Poorest 56%
Second 44%
Third 40%
Fourth 34%
Richest 22%
Iraq Overall 39%

Households Experiencing Food Shortages By Province – Least To Most
Sulaymaniya: 14%
Diyala: 15%
Basra: 16%
Irbil: 17%
Maysan: 25%
Dohuk: 28%
Ninewa: 30%
Baghdad: 31%
Muthanna: 31%
Salahaddin: 32%
Anbar: 33%
Wasit: 40%
Tamim: 45%
Dhi-Qar: 47%
Qadisiyah: 52%
Najaf: 70%
Babil: 77%
Karbala: 82%
Iraq: 35%

Employment By Household
37% government
25% self-employed, not in farming
14% self-employed on farms
11% non-skilled labor
8% skilled labor
4% farm workers

Employment By Province, Area, And In Iraq
Dohuk: 4% farming self-employed, 4% farm workers, 11% skilled workers, 12% non-skilled workers, 47% government, 21% self-employed not farming, 2% other
Ninewa: 9% farming self-employed, 5% farm workers, 11% skilled workers, 12% non-skilled workers, 24% government, 28% self-employed not farming, 1% other
Sulaymaniya: 9% farming self-employed, 2% farm workers, 8% skilled workers, 14% non-skilled work, 43% government 23% self-employed not farming, 1% other
Tamim: 8% farming self-employed, 3% farm workers, 4% skilled workers, 17% non-skilled workers, 36% government, 30% self-employed not farming, 1% other
Diyala: 16% farming self-employed, 14% farm workers, 13% skilled labor, 3% non-skilled labor, 33% government, 20% self-employed not farming, 1% other
Anbar: 5% farming self-employed, 16% farm workers, 9% skilled workers, 8% non-skilled workers, 40% government, 22% self-employed, not farming, 1% other
Baghdad: 17% farming self-employed, 1% farm workers, 8% skilled workers, 8% non-skilled labor, 38% government, 28% self-employed not farming
Babil: 33% farming self-employed, 1% farm workers, 3% skilled worker, 11% non-skilled worker, 26% government, 26% self-employed not farming,
Karbala: 9% farming self-employed, 3% farm workers, 7% skilled worker, 11% non-skilled worker, 36% government, 34% self-employed not farming, 1% other
Wasit: 26% farming self-employed, 14% farm workers, 4% skilled workers, 9% non-skilled workers, 23% government, 23% self-employed not farming, 1% other
Salahaddin: 32% farming self-employed, 3% farm workers, 4% skilled labor, 8% non-skilled worker, 38% government, 14% self-employed not farming, 2% other
Najaf: 18% farming self-employed, 9% farm workers, 6% skilled workers, 9% non-skilled workers, 29% government, 29% self- employed not farming, 1% other
Qadisiyah: 14% farming self-employed, 8% farm worker, 12% skilled worker, 12% non-skilled worker, 37% government, 15% self-employed not farming, 2% other
Muthanna: 10% farming self-employed, 1% farm workers, 13% skilled workers, 23% non-skilled workers, 40% government, 13% self-employed not farming, 1% other
Dhi-Qar: 7% farming self-employed, 8% skilled workers, 11% non-skilled workers, 43% government, 29% self-employed not farming, 2% other
Maysan: 12% farming self-employed, 13% farm workers, 5% skilled workers, 11% non-skilled workers, 43% government, 29% self-employed not farming, 2% other
Basra: 1% farming self-employed, 12% skilled labor, 17% non-skilled labor, 46% government, 24% self- employed not farming
Urban: 1% farming self- employed, 1% farm workers, 10% skilled labor, 12% non-skilled workers, 45% government, 31% self-employed not farming, 1% other
Rural: 37% farming self-employed, 11% farm workers, 5% skilled workers, 9% non-skilled workers, 23% government, 14% self-employed not farming, 1% other
Iraq: 14% farming self-employed, 4% farm workers, 8% skilled labor, 11% non-skilled workers, 37% government, 25% self-employed not farming, 1% other

SOURCES
Khanfir, Imed, “Iraq: Access to Food Improves But Hunger Remains,” World Food Programme, 11/12/08
Reuters, “UN Says 1 Million Iraqis Lack Food,” 11/12/08
World Food Programme, “Comprehensive Food Security And Vulnerability Analysis In Iraq,” November 2008
 
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