Sunday, September 28, 2008

EPIC Guest Blogger: Reidar Visser Offers a History Lesson for Senator Obama

Reidar Visser is research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs with a background in history and comparative politics (University of Bergen) and a doctorate in Middle Eastern studies (University of Oxford). He's the author of Basra, the Failed Gulf State: Separatism and Nationalism in Southern Iraq (Lit Verlag, 2006) and co-editor of An Iraq of Its Regions: Cornerstones of a Federal Democracy? (Columbia University Press, 2007). The following commentary was originally posted at http://www.historiae.org/

Senator Barack Obama to Senator John McCain during last Friday’s presidential debate: “You said that there was no history of violence between Shiite and Sunni. And you were wrong.”

Since this is forceful claim about Iraqi history which was presented during a contest for the position as the world’s most powerful leader, it is worth examining in some further detail. Let’s take a closer look at that “history of violence between Shiite and Sunni” in Iraq. Shiites and Sunnis have coexisted in Iraq since they crystallised as two distinctive religious communities in Baghdad in the tenth century AD, when the struggle for power between various factions of the Islamic caliphate that had been going on since the seventh century became transformed into a theological one with the (Shiite) doctrine of the imamate. In the subsequent centuries, there was certainly tension between these two communities at times (not least because the rivalling ruling elements of the caliphates chose to cultivate links with particular communities to further their own power struggles), but outbreaks of violence on a large scale were extremely rare. In fact, not more than three cases stand out before the late twentieth century, and these were all related to invasion by foreign forces rather than to internal sectarian struggles between the Iraqis.

The first major case of extensive Shiite–Sunni violence was in 1508: A massacre by invading Persian Safavids of Sunnis and Christians in Baghdad. The Safavids returned a little more than one hundred years later, in 1623, and once more went ahead with a massacre of Sunnis in Baghdad. Later, in the nineteenth century, extremist Sunni Wahhabis from the Arabian Peninsula would regularly overrun the settled areas of Iraq; on one occasion, in 1801, this took on a clearly sectarian nature as Bedouin warriors massacred Shiites in the holy city of Karbala. The list can be completed down to 2003 and the US invasion with a series of ugly episodes that took place in the late twentieth century: Between 1969 and 1971, the Sunni-dominated Baathist regime performed mass expulsions of Shiites (including a high number of Fayli Kurds); in 1980 there was another wave of mass deportations of Shiites in the wake of the Iranian revolution; finally, in 1991 there were massacres of Shiites after the failed intifada that followed the Gulf War. (Conversely, some of the other historical episodes that are occasionally described as instances of “sectarian violence” simply do not fit this label. For example, the conflict between the government and the mostly Shiite tribes on the Euphrates in the 1935 was interwoven with questions relating to agrarian issues and conscription, and Sunni politicians had ties to both the government and the opposition camps.)

On the one hand, there can be no doubt that this is a grim record: it involves thousands of innocent people who were massacred simply because they belonged to the wrong sect. On the other hand, however, it is important to keep things in perspective. These six cases of widespread sectarian violence took place in a time span of more than 1,000 years. Moreover, they were mostly instigated by foreign invaders. The Iraqis themselves repeatedly closed ranks against these aggressions, uniting Shiites and Sunnis against the foreign forces. For example, in 1623 when the Safavid army was about to massacre the Sunni population of Baghdad, Shiites of Karbala intervened to save Sunnis from Shiite aggression. Similarly, in 1801, when Sunni Wahhabis sacked Karbala, the Sunni pasha of Baghdad punished the Sunni governor of Karbala for having failed to prevent the attack on the Shiites. Also, in none of these cases did the victims propose separative solutions. Never in Iraqi history has there been any call for a small Sunni state. And with the exception of feeble and short-lived attempt by some low-ranking clerics and notables of Baghdad in 1927, the Shiites have also consistently shied away from a call for a small Shiite breakaway state. None of the major upheavals of twentieth-century Iraqi history – 1920 and 1958 – featured sectarian conflict as the main mode of political action.

The accumulation of cases of sectarian violence during the decades of Baathist rule calls for special comment. True, the measures taken against the Shiites in the early 1980s and in 1991 were extremely repressive, and in a one-off episode in the immediate wake of the 1991 uprising they turned into fully-fledged explicit sectarianism through a series of chauvinist Sunni editorials in the Thawra newspaper in which the Arabness of the Shiites was questioned. However, subsequent developments in Iraqi politics show that the “Sunni” character of the Baathist regime was not its real core and that it was first and foremost an authoritarian regime built on relations between patrons and clients: In the mid-1990s the dominant political trend in Iraq was intra-Sunni struggles, as tribe after tribe challenged Saddam Hussein, who ended up executing people from his hometown Tikrit and his own family. When the defector Husayn Kamil Hasan al-Majid returned from Jordan in 1996, he was put to death just like many Shiite rebels had been after the 1991 uprising.

Perhaps most importantly in the context of the US elections, this record needs to be compared with that of the country Barack Obama represents himself. Did not the Civil War cause some 600,000 deaths between 1861 and 1865? How many thousands of African Americans have been killed in KKK violence? What about the Native Americans? The numbers here are clearly higher than the number of deaths caused by sectarian violence in Iraq, and yet few are prepared to question the viability of the United States as a political project. So where did Senator Obama really want to go with those comments?

There is a problem in Democratic discourse on Iraq that consists of always trying to put the actions of the Bush administration is the worst possible light, even in situations when this forces the Democrats to twist the reality. It seems reasonable to criticise the Iraq War on several grounds: there were no weapons of mass destruction, no al-Qaida link and no 911 relationship, and the unilateral action without a UN mandate created yet another dangerous precedent in international affairs. But Democrats go further than this: they frequently claim that the sectarian problems seen in Iraq since 2003 and especially in the wake of the Samarra bombing in 2006 were a “natural” expression of Iraqi politics, and that the high degree of Iranian influence seen in today’s Iraq is somehow a “natural” phenomenon in a country with a large Shiite population. The argument is that the Bush administration should have known that any tampering with the authoritarian structures of Baathist Iraq would automatically have prompted a civil war with a strong Iranian role among the Shiites. It is also a way of ultimately blaming the Iraqis themselves for all the problems they are currently going through.

This is to ignore the historical record of coexistence between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq and the fervent anti-Iranian attitudes among large sections of Iraq’s Shiites. Of course, on this latter point, John McCain is off the mark just like Obama: by suggesting that “the consequences of defeat would have been increased Iranian influence” he overlooks the fact that some of America’s best friends in the Maliki government have extremely close ties to Iran and that Iran’s interests so far have been well served by the Republican “victory” project and Washington’s peculiar choice of alliance partners among Iraq’s Shiites. But on the whole, Republicans, to a greater degree than Democrats, at least seem to recognise the historical roots of Iraqi national unity. From the Iraqi point of view it simply seems more dangerous to have a US president who based on some extremely superficial reading pretends to know something about the divide between Sunnis and Shiites than to have one who reportedly is completely ignorant about the subject.

The bottom line is that there is nothing in Iraq’s history that should prevent the country from reverting to its natural role as one of the world’s great nations. Those who try to suggest otherwise either ignore the empirical record or do not care for the well-being of the Iraqi people. It is said that Obama has several top-notch, progressive and knowledgeable advisers who know about all these things, and who are unlikely to look to soft partitionist Joe Biden when it comes to actual policy-making. But unless these voices can have a real impact on what their candidate says in front of millions of Americans in prime-time televised debates, their usefulness seems unclear. If yesterday’s unfounded attack on Iraq's record of coexistence is the most inspirational thing Obama can come up with on Iraq then it is hard for a non-American observer to see any fundamental difference between his candidacy and that of all the others before him. Obama's remarks were yet another example of how American politicians can be careless in dealing with other sovereign nations and their histories, and they also go in exactly the wrong direction at a time when politics in Iraq is once more becoming more cross-sectarian.

Photo caption: Al Kadhemain Mosque, Baghdad 2003, photo by Jan Oberg

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Election Law Passed, Now To Get People To Vote

The following commentary was originally posted on Musings On Iraq:

Iraq’s parliament finally passed a new provincial election law on September 24, 2008. The thorny issue of Kirkuk that was at the center of the dispute over the vetoed election law in July was put off. A special committee is to be formed of all the major groups in the city made up of two Arabs, two Kurds, two Turkomen and one Christian. The group is to come up with some solutions to the city’s divided population and rule, and submit them to parliament by March 31, 2009. Afterwards, a separate vote is to be held there. The law also maintains the open list of the original election bill that allows voters to pick individuals instead of parties on the ballot, 25% of all provincial council seats need to go to women, it bans the use of religious figures on campaign material, and there are some limits on mosques being used. A quota for minorities to be represented on the councils was also discussed, but that too is to be sent to a committee for future consideration. The United Nations special representative Staffan de Mistura was greatly responsible for the series of compromises that allowed the law to pass.

Oddly enough, though the Kurds were the major roadblock to passing the original election law during the summer, and were the main group that needed to be appeased to approve the new one, Kurdistan will not be holding elections. The Kurds say elections are an issue for the Kurdish Assembly to legislate. The Kurds were mostly involved in the debate to protect their interests in Kirkuk, which they have de facto rule over, and wish to annex in the future. With that now done, they were a willing partner to the passage of the bill.

The final step is for it to be passed by the Presidential Council. That was where Kurdish Vice President Jalal Talabani and Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council Vice President Adil Abd al-Mahdi vetoed the original law in July. This time it is expected to pass. That means the actual election will probably happen sometime in early 2009.

Now that arduous process is over, the government needs to move forward with actually registering voters. As reported earlier, in July 2008 563 voter centers were set up across Iraq. The Election Commission gave Iraqis 30 days to sign up, but too few showed up, and the deadline was extended several times. As of the end of August, only 2.9 million new voters out of a possible 17 million registered. Of the 2.7 million internally displaced Iraqis, only 100,000 have signed up. Those that voted in the 2005 elections don’t have to re-register as long as they haven’t moved. Over eight million voted then, but since then around five million Iraqis have fled their homes for other parts of the country or to foreign lands. On the positive side, of the 2.9 million newly registered, 1.8 million are Sunnis, who boycotted the first election in 2005 and are therefore grossly underrepresented in Iraq’s provincial councils.

The Election Commission looked at the registration process as a measure of how much the public was looking forward to the vote. They have been disappointed with the low numbers. Several reasons have been given for the apparent apathy. One is that many Iraqis are more interested in finding jobs and getting basic necessities such as water, gas, fuel, and electricity than the elections. Many simply don’t believe voting will change their situation. There have also been reports that the security forces have been intimidating followers of Moqtada al-Sadr in areas such as Sadr City in Baghdad. Neither is good for a country that is attempting to move towards democracy.

SOURCES
Abouzeid, Rania, “Growing Apathy Toward Iraqi Elections,” Time, 9/5/08
al-Ansary, Khalid, “Iraq election law must pass mid-Sept for 2008 vote,” Reuters, 8/30/08
Chon, Gina and Naji, Zaineb, “Iraq Drive for Voters Lags,” Wall Street Journal, 9/18/08
Goode, Erica, “Iraq Passes Provincial Elections Law,” New York Times, 9/25/08
Levinson, Charles, “Misconduct seen at Baghdad voting centers,” USA Today, 8/14/08
Lynch, Marc, “definite maybe,” Abu Aardvark Blog, 9/24/08
Missing Links Blog, “Suggested scapegoats for poor voter-registration,” 8/23/08
Visser, Reidar, “After Compromise on Kirkuk, Finally an Election Law for Iraq’s Governorates,” Historiae.org, 9/24/08
Voices of Iraq, “IHEC opens 563 voter registration update centers – UNAMI,” 7/15/08

Friday, September 26, 2008

Is Honesty on Iraq as Elusive as The Great Pumpkin?

Today's Washington Post editorial once again challenges Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama to update his Iraq position. While EPIC takes no position on candidates running for political office, we have a lot to say about the policy prescriptions (or lack thereof) of both the Republican and Democratic nominees. Where one party seems to be blind to U.S. shortcomings in Iraq and the region, the other seems to be blind to any progress.

What progress you ask?!

Yesterday EPIC Guest Blogger Reidar Visser wrote about the successful passage of a special election law in Iraq, which opens the door for next year’s provincial elections. Today the editors of the Washington Post write:
Iraq's parliament on Wednesday took another major step toward political stabilization. By a unanimous vote, the national legislature approved a plan for local elections in 14 of 18 provinces by early next year -- clearing the way for a new, more representative and more secular wave of politicians to take office. The legislation eliminates the party slate system that allowed religious authorities to dominate Iraq's previous elections, and it provides for women to hold 25 percent of seats. Most important, it will allow Sunni leaders who boycotted the 2005 provincial elections -- and who have since allied themselves with U.S. forces against al-Qaeda in Iraq -- to compete for political power in the provinces that were once the heartland of the insurgency.
While the U.S. media exaggerates Baghdad gridlock and sectarian politics in Iraq, in truth, the real contest for power in Iraq (as put forward by Sam Parker of USIP and other respected Iraq specialists) is between the powers that be (PTB) and the powers that aren’t (PTA). The passage of a special election law not only shows progress in negotiations between the rival factions of the PTB, but the growing political power and influence of the PTA. Unrepresented communities like Iraq’s tribal leaders (both Sunni and Shia), secular Iraqi professionals in Iraq’s urban centers, many Iraqis in rural areas, and minority communities such as Iraq's Chaldean and Assyrian Christians are demanding free and fair elections that give them a competitive chance of winning seats on Provincial Councils and eventually in the National Parliament.

Real representation from the grassroots up trumping sectarian (read: partisan) party lists and political insiders (dominated by former political exiles in the case of Iraq)? That’s change that both Americans and Iraqis can believe in.

At the same time, we’re all looking for more intellectual honesty and less knee-jerk partisan rhetoric. The McCain-Palin camp ought to offer more “straight talk” about U.S. shortcomings in Iraq and the region (especially surrounding the displacement and vulnerability of millions of Iraqis). The Obama-Biden ticket ought to explain how their administration will withdraw U.S. forces in a way that leaves sustainable security and continuing political progress behind, and it's hard to do that without being honest and forthcoming about where U.S. efforts have done some good. The first candidate who breaks out of the partisan framing of the “Iraq issue” will be the first to look truly Presidential in the eyes of thoughtful American voters.

So here’s the hard-to-swallow pill that the Washington Post prescribes to Obama:
...it's now clear that the political progress that the Bush administration hoped would follow the surge of U.S. forces in Iraq has finally begun. How can the next president preserve that momentum? Democrat Barack Obama continues to argue that only the systematic withdrawal of U.S. combat units will force Iraqi leaders to compromise. Yet the empirical evidence of the past year suggests the opposite: that only the greater security produced and guaranteed by American troops allows a political environment in which legislative deals and free elections are feasible.
Indeed, it’s time for both sides to reckon with the realities of Iraq no matter how inconvenient to old partisan narratives. Do that and you’ll be offering change we all can believe in.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

EPIC Guest Blogger: Reidar Visser on the Passage of Iraq's Special Elections Law

Reidar Visser is research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs with a background in history and comparative politics (University of Bergen) and a doctorate in Middle Eastern studies (University of Oxford). He's the author of Basra, the Failed Gulf State: Separatism and Nationalism in Southern Iraq (Lit Verlag, 2006) and co-editor of An Iraq of Its Regions: Cornerstones of a Federal Democracy? (Columbia University Press, 2007). The following commentary was originally posted at www.historiae.org

Iraq’s parliament today approved the remaining article 24 of the provincial elections law that was partially approved on 22 July except for the provisions relating to elections in Kirkuk.

The new article, which has been crafted in cooperation with the United Nations special representative in Iraq, Staffan de Mistura, delays the elections in the disputed Kirkuk province, but also establishes a committee which will deal with power-sharing issues in local government there. The committee will consist of 7 parliamentary representatives from Kirkuk – 2 Kurds, 2 Turkmens, 2 Arabs and 1 Christian – and will have until 31 March 2009 to prepare its report.

The Iraqi parliament will then proceed to create a special elections law for Kirkuk. (Or, if it fails to do so, the prime minister, the president and the speaker of the parliament will decree a suitable system for elections in cooperation with the United Nations!)

The new law is a compromise between federalists (in particular the Kurds) and nationalist centralists (now increasingly referred to as the “forces of 22 July”). Back in May this year, Kurdish politicians spoke in favour of postponing local elections in all disputed areas such as Kirkuk, arguing that their strong position in these areas – based on the heavily-boycotted January 2005 elections – would play to their advantage and could perhaps be a negotiating card towards a rapid settlement of territorial issues. The forces of 22 July, on the other hand, demanded more equitable power-sharing in the interim, thereby seeking to shake up Kurdish dominance in the local council and to challenge what they consider to be a number of pro-Kurdish placemen and figureheads that have been anointed by the Kurds to serve as “Arab” and “Turkmen” representatives in Kirkuk despite having little support in the communities they purport to represent.

The compromise is more than a mere postponement: it keeps Kirkuk and the issue of power sharing on the agenda, even if these issues are now lifted to the abstract realm of a parliamentary committee and with a timeline that stretches well into 2009. Also, it is noteworthy that the forces of 22 July scored at least a symbolic victory by gaining an explicit assurance that the central government would play an equally important role alongside the local authorities in facilitating the work of the parliamentary committee. The language on this disputed “fourth point” of article 24 is what held up the passage of the law for the last week or so, and in a testament to the lingering conflict between centralisers and decentralisers in the Iraqi parliament, both Kurds and ISCI (Jalal al-Din al-Saghir) had criticised the nationalists for insisting on a reference to the central government.

In the end, the role of the central government was confirmed, thus in some ways also confirming the diminishing parliamentary clout of the federalists in Iraq. This has apparently enabled many of the component elements of the 22 July forces – including MPs from Iraqiyya, Fadila and the Sadrists – to feel satisfaction about the passage of the law, as seen in a number of positive statements in the wake of the adoption of the law. Perhaps the more important result of the process – in addition to the fact that provincial elections may now actually be held in late 2008 or early 2009 – is the increased awareness, both inside and outside the Iraqi parliament, of this cross-sectarian bloc and the potential it represents. The big question now is whether the Maliki government is prepared to go ahead with free and fair elections given the increasing signs of a cohesive challenge from the opposition.

Postscript: After having blown hot and cold – mostly cold – with regard to Kurdish participation in the elections, Kurdish leaders according to press reports now say that local elections will not be held anywhere in the Kurdistan region, as the right to legislate on those elections is seen as falling within the domain of the regional government. While the Kurds are the most pro-federal force in Iraq, Kurdistan itself is quite centralised (with two competing centres in Arbil and Sulaymaniyya), with the local governorates having considerably less power vis-à-vis the Kurdistan Regional Government than their counterparts elsewhere in Iraq have towards Baghdad. This stance does throw into question the heavy Kurdish involvement in drafting the law, where they dominated parliamentary debates in long periods with their insistent demands that closed lists be used due to the supposed illiteracy of the Iraqi electorate – no such qualms when it came to the constitution back in 2005, apparently!

Photo caption: An Iraqi policeman stood watch under an election poster in Baghdad on Wednesday. Photo by Mohammed Jalil/European Pressphoto Agency
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/world/middleeast/index.html

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Headlines 09/08-09/16

New York Times
September 16, 2008
“Odierno Succeeds Patraeus in Iraq”
Thom Shanker, Stephen Farrell

The position of Commander of multinational forces in Iraq changes hands during a formal ceremony in Baghdad. Former No. 2 commander, Gen. Ray Ordierno expresses caution about maintaining security gains resulting from the surge in the wake of troop withdrawals.

Los Angeles Times
September 16, 2008
“Iraq's Nouri Maliki breaking free of U.S.”
Ned Parker

Ned Parker explains how a series of pivotal military victories by the Iraq army have altered Iraqi opinion of Prime Minister Maliki. Now a “decisive commander in chief”, Maliki is asserting his power and demanding a U.S. troop withdrawal by 2011 leaving Iraq open to Iranian influence as U.S. control wanes.

The New York Times
Wednesday September 15, 2008
“Inside the new Green Zone”
Andy Arkell

From inside Iraq, Andy Arkell observes that in Baghdad there is a transition in checkpoint supervision from International military to Iraqi security personnel. Arkell notes that the interesting trend of Iraqi soldiers tightening checkpoint security denotes a strengthening of Iraqi control and confidence.

Weekend Edition Saturday
National Public Radio
September 13, 2008
“Evaluating The Surge In Iraq”

"I would characterize the surge as necessary but insufficient to bring about the violence reduction that we've seen." Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations talks with host Scott Simon about elements that made the military surge in Iraq effective, and about other key factors that reduced violence.

Morning Edition
National Public Radio
September 12, 2008
“Iraq Puts Sunni Paramilitary Groups To Work”

After strong pressure from the U.S. military, the Iraqi government has agreed to employ the so-called Awakening Councils. These are largely Sunni paramilitary groups who turned against al-Qaida and allied themselves with U.S. forces. But the Awakening membership mistrusts the Iraqi government. Lourdes Garcia-Navarro reports from Baghdad.

The New York Times
September 8, 2008
“Should We Stay or Should We Go?”
Stephen Farrell

Stephen Farrell hits the streets of Baghdad to ask the Iraqi people what they think about an American troop withdrawal. Farrell elaborates on three frequently expressed opinions he encounters during his conversations.

Photo Caption #1: Gen. David H. Petraeus, seated, reacted Tuesday to a standing ovation in Baghdad. Max Becherer for The New York Times

Photo Caption #2: An Iraqi boy watches as American soldiers secure the scene in the aftermath of a car bomb that detonated near an American Army checkpoint. Moises Saman for The New York Times

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Phebe Marr Places Iraq Crisis in Historical Context

Renown scholar and author of The Modern History of Iraq Dr. Phebe Marr delivered a fascinating speech at this year's Iraq Forum. For many Americans, their first introduction to Iraq was Saddam Hussein's abrupt entrance onto the world stage on August 2, 1990 with Iraq's annexation of Kuwait and the subsequent 1991 Gulf War. But of course Iraq's modern history predates 1990 and has tremendous relevance to what's happening today. Spanning four decades, Marr brings Iraq's recent history to life. She documents key events that illuminate current trends, and explains why the past must be considered in finding the best way forward.


Panel 1 Part 1 (28:59) from Sarah Shannon on Vimeo.

Dr. Marr begins her address with a brief chronicle of the turbulence that overwhelmed Iraq beginning with the 1958 military revolt up until the U.S. occupation in 2003. Although the most recent wave of refugees and internal displacement may be the largest in Iraq's history, it is not the first. Military coups, a brutal dictator, numerous wars, failed uprisings, and more than a decade of sanctions created previous waves of refugees. Understanding those occurrences can help explain the present crisis, as well as the social and political upheavals since the toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime.

As Marr explains, the creation of a “political vacuum” in post-Hussein Iraq was a catalyst for a sequence of trends that contributed to the humanitarian crisis. Yet Marr's prognosis is refreshingly measured. She sees little value in "happy talk" or pronouncements of "The End of Iraq." Instead, she offers an historical framework on which to build practical solutions. Click the video above and watch the introduction by Prof. Marc Lynch (aka Abu Aardvark in the blogosphere) and Dr. Marr's engaging presentation.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

U.S. House Members Ask: Are Security Gains in Iraq Sustainable with Less Troops?

"The end of the war was never considered," declared Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina, the second ranking Democrat on the U.S. House Armed Services Committee. Thus began yesterday's hearing on U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen. A lot of discussion focused on plans to reduce U.S. forces in Iraq to pre-surge levels (less than 140,000) by February 2009.

According to Secretary Gates, "This continuing drawdown is possible because of the success achieved in reducing violence and building Iraqi security capacity."

However, Republican Rep. John M. McHugh of New York questioned the sustainability of security improvements and building up Iraqi security capacity while drawing down U.S. forces. He cited a July 2008 GAO report that finds significant deficiencies in the training of Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), including a shortage of U.S. personnel. According to the GAO, the U.S. military has failed to develop a comprehensive strategy to solve the shortage of manpower for training the ISF. Admiral Mullen said plans for comprehensive training are being addressed and that the root problem is a need for more personnel to train private security contractors (PSCs).

Secretary Gates also expressed caution about the rate of future troop withdrawals. Covering the hearing, today's Washington Post reports:

Despite their focus on Afghanistan, both Gates and Mullen said that the situation in Iraq remains uncertain and could require more forces in the future. "I worry that the great progress" by U.S. and Iraqi forces could override caution and lead to an excessively rapid drawdown, said Gates, noting that U.S. commanders in Iraq remain concerned about "many challenges and potential for reversals." In sum, he said, "we should expect to be involved in Iraq for years to come, although in changing and increasingly limited ways."

Another challenge to ensuring sustainable security in Iraq is the flagging development of Iraqi institutions and civil society, something Secretary Gates acknowledged in his testimony. However, when a Representative pointedly asked if Iraq is "coup-proof", Gates failed to mention the role that a strong civilian government and civil society can play in preventing a military takeover or return to widespread sectarian violence. Instead, he highlighted the Government of Iraq's reappointment of new military leaders as helping to ensure that all factions of Iraqi society feel represented and protected.

Indeed, writing "How to Leave a Stable Iraq" for Foreign Affairs, coauthors Stephen Biddle at the Council on Foreign Relations and Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack at the Brookings Institution highlight improvements in the ISF's composition and leadership.

Sectarian, corrupt, incompetent, and turncoat officers have been removed. Aggressive recruitment and new amnesty and de-Baathification ordinances have led to increases in both the number of Sunnis, especially in the officer corps, and the number of people with prior military experience in the forces. Now, about 80 percent of the Iraqi army's officers and 50 percent of its rank and file are veterans of Saddam Hussein's military, and one of the most capable units in the Iraqi army, the First Brigade of the First Infantry Division, is 60 percent Sunni

Of course, making Iraq both "coup proof" and peaceful will require additional democratic safeguards and a more holistic approach to building security. For example, consider the stabilizing role of humanitarian relief and protection for 4.8 million displaced Iraqis (nearly 17% of Iraq's entire population). Large numbers of Iraqi middle-class professionals -- desperately needed for Iraq's recovery and development -- have fled to Syria, Jordan, and other nearby countries. In addition, women, young children, and the elderly -- all of whom are the least likely to perpetrate violence -- are disproportionately represented among the dispossessed. By working to ensure the survival of all of these displaced Iraqis and by creating conditions in Iraq that allow many to eventually return -- voluntarily, in safety, and with dignity -- the U.S. and international community can support a 'virtuouse cycle' that leads to lasting peace and prosperity in Iraq.

Likewise, strengthening civilian institutions, improving public education, expanding access to health care, providing reliable electricity, and supporting the development of a vibrant Iraqi middle class are essential elements of healthy democracies.

To phase out the heavy U.S. military presence in Iraq responsibly, safely and with the careful consideration that was lacking at the war's inception, a re-balancing of U.S. policy on Iraq is needed. Congress ought to hold additional hearings to assess the U.S. administration's response to the humanitarian crisis in Iraq and the region, and what more can be done to stabilize Iraq through effective humanitarian relief and development assistance.

Photo Caption: Joint Chiefs Chairman Michael Mullen testifies before a House panel on developing security conditions and U.S. military requirements in Iraq and Afghanistan (Source: Washington Post, 9/10/08, photo by Mark Wilson, Getty Images).

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Ramadan in Iraq: Improving Security Sparks Revival of Traditions

On September 1st, the setting sun marked the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan, a celebration which occurs during the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. The origins of Ramadan trace back to the 7th Century, known to Muslims as the year Ramadan 610. At this time, Muslims believe Muhammad received the initial verses of the Koran from the angel Gabriel, a messenger sent by Allah. Throughout the month of Ramadan, Muslims observe the tradition of fasting, one of the five pillars of the Islamic faith. From sunrise to sunset all those who are healthy abstain from eating, drinking (water included), sex and smoking. Daily fasting allows for self reflection and mastery over desires. Abstention from food also reminds Muslims of the suffering of others less fortunate.

The traditions of Ramadan are meant to unite families and neighborhoods in a spirit of charity, peace and hospitality. However, in Iraq, insecurity makes observing the holy month more difficult. In February 2006, the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra catapulted the region into severe sectarian conflict. 9 P.M. curfews and fear of more bloodshed kept most Iraqis from the games, feasts and gatherings that, in past Ramadans, stretched into the early hours of dawn. In an article published by the Washington Post in 2006, an Iraqi grocery clerk pessimistically asserts that “All of our traditions will soon vanish, and we will only hear about them in history books.” In the same article a young Iraqi girl speaks of the fears that taint the Ramadan celebrations:

Last year we were not afraid. But this year we are afraid. There are a lot of car bombs. I want security to come back and no terrorists.

Considering the unremitting conflict that plagued Iraq following the bombing in Samarra, hope for the revival of a peaceful Ramadan became an illusion for even the most optimistic Iraqi.

Over the past year, however, a quelling of violence revives the hope that was fading amidst constant bloodshed. On August 31st, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki praised the resilience of the Iraqi people stating:

Ramadan comes at a time when the Iraqis have earned the result of their patience and victory on terrorists, criminals and outlaws (…) There is progress in security and peace.

Security has indeed improved. Last month a total of 430 Iraqi civilians, police officers and soldiers were killed nationwide as compared to the 1,860 deaths during the same period a year earlier. The recent handover of security responsibilities to Iraqi forces in the province of Anbar, formally a stronghold for Sunni insurgency and the birthplace of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, is more good news for Iraqis longing for a calm Ramadan. Feeling secure, people are returning to the streets in the evening after breaking the fast. In interviews with residents in Baghdad and throughout the country, the Los Angeles Times reports "Iraqi Muslims Pray for Peaceful Ramadan":

Muqdad Hammed, 23, who never thought of going out during Ramadan last year. Now he looks forward to the nights after breaking the fast. "We hang around in alleyways as late as 1 a.m. playing the traditional games," he said. Among those games is mahaibis, in which one person on a team conceals a ring in his hand and the other team must guess who has it.

In Baghdad's eastern neighborhood of Shaab, Ali Mohammed, 24, said that despite high food prices, he wants to take his family out to celebrate in parks and restaurants. “There will be no bloody explosions and killing. I’m optimistic that Ramadan will be full of prosperity and peace for all,” Mohammed said.

Despite improvements in security, violent attacks continue to be a danger in less secure areas. On September 6th a car bomb exploded near shops and cafes in the northwestern city of Tal Afar. The blast killed six people and wounded an estimated 50 others as reported by the New York Times. Late August also saw a string of fatal attacks by suicide bombers targeting mosques and police stations. The recent increase of attacks mimic similar surges that occurred during Ramadan in the past. In 2003 and 2006, Ramadan prompted anti-Iraqi insurgents to launch offensives that killed more than 350 Iraqi Security Forces personnel and nearly 200 coalition service members.

Security, however, is not the most pressing issue distressing many Iraqis this month. Lack of electricity and other essential services undermine the attempts of Iraqis to rebuild their lives and observe Ramadan. The extreme heat during blackouts makes fasting more difficult. The loss of loved ones becomes amplified as well during the month of Ramadan. A time of celebration is also a time of mourning when many Iraqis are forced to recall bitter memories of family and friends lost or displaced due to the violence in Iraq. One Iraqi man, whose son died two months ago from a gunshot wound, laments:

Ramadan for us has always been a period of love and strength. The family was always together. But today, it means suffering and pain.”

Despite the challenges that still face Iraq; during this holy month of Ramadan, citizens can celebrate not only the Islamic traditions that unify them as Muslims but also the successes that unite them as Iraqis.

Photo Caption: "A baker prepares kunafa, a traditional Middle Eastern dessert pastry, in Baghdad’s Karada district. During Ramadan, Muslims fast during the day and feast at night (Ahmad al-Rubaye, AFP/Getty Images, 9/3/08)."

Thursday, September 04, 2008

A Crisis Too Big for Iraq Alone: a remarkable speech by Iraq's Ambassador to the U.S.

In the following video, Iraq’s first Ambassador to the U.S. in 16 years, His Excellency Samir Sumaida’ie, delivers an impassioned opening keynote address at the 2008 National Iraq Forum. Introducing him is former U.S. Ambassador to Jordan Edward Gnehm, Jr., a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.

Ambassador Sumaida’ie addresses the plight of his compatriots as a man who knows what it's like to flee one’s homeland. Following Saddam's seizure of power in 1973, he was forced to do just that. He was 29 years old.

The rapid deterioration of Iraq from 2003 through 2007 raises serious questions: How did a nation “liberated from tyranny and oppression” become less secure? Why is there a large-scale humanitarian crisis? How have pre-war conditions and post-war policies contributed to the violence? And, perhaps most critically, what can and is being done by the government of Iraq, the United States, and civil society to help Iraq's most vulnerable citizens, including an estimated 4.8 million Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs)?


Opening Keynote (21:12) from Sarah Shannon on Vimeo.

Ambassador Sumaida’ie offers answers and a certain pragmatism that neither condemns nor excuses his government from its responsibility to protect and assist Iraq's most vulnerable citizens. Yet, with modesty, Sumaida’ie acknowledges that Iraq cannot address the deepening crisis alone. The magnitude of the crisis is far greater than what the present capacity of Iraq's government can handle. Stronger international assistance is also needed to help alleviate the burden on refugee-hosting countries like Jordan and Syria.

It is a remarkable speech that I hope you’ll watch and share with your friends. To watch now, click the video above.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

EPIC Guest Blogger: Reidar Visser on Why Obama-Biden May not be Change Iraqis Can Believe In

Reidar Visser is research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs with a background in history and comparative politics (University of Bergen) and a doctorate in Middle Eastern studies (University of Oxford). He's the author of Basra, the Failed Gulf State: Separatism and Nationalism in Southern Iraq (Lit Verlag, 2006) and co-editor of An Iraq of Its Regions: Cornerstones of a Federal Democracy? (Columbia University Press, 2007). The following commentary was originally posted at www.historiae.org

In many ways, Barack Obama’s approach to Iraq is strikingly similar to that of the Bush administration and John McCain. In theory, the addition of Joe Biden to Obama’s ticket could change this, but over the last weeks and months there have been interesting moves by Biden to remove most traces of his “Iraq plans” from the public domain.

With regard to Iraq, the real context of the upcoming Democratic convention is that “the surge” in Iraq is not working at all. Despite measurable successes in bringing the levels of violence down, the American-sponsored political system in Iraq is actually more dysfunctional than ever, and incapable of delivering the results that both Iraqis and Americans are looking for. Perhaps the best evidence is the fact that it is now Washington’s own darlings in Iraq and their pet projects that stand in the way of progress, as seen in the vice-presidential vetoes this year against the provincial powers law and the provincial elections law. There is in fact a cross-sectarian majority in the Iraqi parliament that wants to have early elections and power-sharing in Kirkuk, but Washington’s allies among the Kurds and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) keep blocking progress towards national reconciliation and a more sustainable political system. The salient cleavages in Iraqi politics are increasingly of a non-sectarian nature – the alliance that challenged the Maliki government through its demand for early elections and power-sharing in Kirkuk had an eminently cross-sectarian composition, and no matter how the media likes to spin it, the recent sacking of the police commander in Diyala did pit some powerful Shiite players against each other – but American policy fails to respond to this reality.

Thankfully, there is growing attention to these cross-sectarian trends at least among some US analysts. There has been some debate as to the usefulness or otherwise of a new nomenclature introduced by USIP’s Sam Parker that employs the terms “The Powers That Be” and “The Powers That Aren’t” to describe the real battlefronts in Iraqi politics, with some critics finding the dichotomy pretentious and nothing more than a new name for “government and opposition”. However, that overlooks the way in which Parker’s concepts clearly augment our understanding of Iraq: they define the glue that holds the government together, and provide a very good point of departure for discussing those ideological pressures that threaten the survival of Maliki and which should be taken into account in any serious discussion of future US policy.(1)

Barack Obama, though, has yet to discover the usefulness of these concepts. During his recent trip to the Middle East, he revealed an extremely dated way of thinking about Iraq, more or less reiterating the Iraq cosmology of those Bush administration officials that have been in charge since 2003. During a press conference in Amman on 22 July following a visit to Anbar where meetings with “Sunni tribal leaders” were high on the agenda, this tendency could be seen very clearly, with Obama consistently portraying the principal dynamic of Iraqi politics as a struggle between Shiites and Sunnis. For example, Obama opined: “I think resolving the big issues like the hydrocarbons law in a way that gives Sunnis the impression that their voice is heard, that’s going to be important.” In fact, the real problem with regard to the hydrocarbons law is that two Kurdish parties insist on the right of federal regions to sign contracts with foreign compaines, whereas almost all the other parties – in this case Sunnis and Shiites alike, and including some of those Shiites that normally are quite pro-Kurdish – favour a more centralised system. Most Iraqis are confident that a purely demographic distribution system based on governorates (not sects!) will be adopted, and see the American quest for a “Sunni quota” as out of touch with Iraqi traditions of centralised government. Again, Obama: “Now, the willingness of Sunni cabinet members who have resigned to now return, to have those cabinet seats filled, and a sense that the Sunnis are going to participate aggressively in the upcoming elections, that, again, is I think a sign of progress.” Once more, very few analysts that have done work on Iraq before 2003 think the return to the government of the tiny Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) would be of any consequence whatsoever. With or without the IIP in their ranks, Maliki and his team will still fail to bring significant change to Iraq and a less sectarian political system of the kind that a majority of parliamentarians are calling for.

Arguably, the addition of Joe Biden to the Obama ticket might aggravate these tendencies, because in the past Biden has been a leading American voice in promoting an interpretation of Iraq as a country of three mutually hostile and internally stable population blocks. His various “plans for Iraq”, while frequently misunderstood, in different ways reinforce the view that the main problem in Iraq has to do with a centralised state structure and coexistence issues. Like many others in American politics, Biden has failed to acknowledge the emerging non-sectarian trends in Iraq, seeking instead to push ideas about “Sunni federalism” during his visit to the Anbar governorate. Remarkably, however, it seems that Biden may have cleaned up his Iraq rhetoric as part of his VP bid. At least, it is quite conspicuous how every trace of his “plan for Iraq” now appears to have been erased from his website at joebiden.com, where he now instead supports Barrack Obama’s more general argument about shifting the focus to Afghanistan. Also, at some point between April 2008 and today, Biden’s website specifically devoted to his soft partition schemes, www.planforiraq.com, was quietly shut down – at this site, Biden’s rhetoric had consistently focused on a tripartite Iraq to the very end. Only on his Senate website traces of his Iraq policy remain, but even there a more toned-down version appears, with the emphasis on a general push for federalisation. This is still in contravention of the Iraqi constitution (which specifically rejects any kind of elite-driven federalisation process) but it could perhaps mean that Biden increasingly realises that his plans were unsustainable and that trends in Iraq militate against them.

Still, for Iraq this seems to be a stark choice. On the one hand, there is McCain, who looks set to persevere with the Bush policy of handling Iraq primarily through military power instead of working for a more truly inclusive political system. With its systematic promotion to top positions in the new Iraq of some of the most sectarian, pro-Iranian and unprofessional cliques among Iraq’s 18 million (and mostly Iraqi nationalist) Shiites, this contradictive policy seems so obviously antithetical to long-term American interests that it is really hard to make sense of (except if one does what should be the unthinkable and puts it in the frightening context of a grander plan to eventually force regime change in Iran as well, in which case the rationale for these leaders to hold on to the Iranian connection would disappear). Democrats appear to be equally ignorant about the survival of Iraqi nationalist sentiment, but they express this in a different policy: acceptance of Iranian influence in Iraq as something natural. This was even written into Obama’s “New Strategy for a New World”, released in mid-July. Commenting on Iraq, Obama writes, “Iraq is not going to be a perfect place…we are not going to … eliminate every trace of Iranian influence”. He seems unaware that this particular statement may be seen as deeply offensive by many Iraqi Shiites who are proud of their Iraqi identity but fearful of Iran and the pro-Iranian elites that have been empowered by the Bush administration. Their fear is that a new Democratic administration will accord Iran exaggerated influence in Iraq as part of a grand, Dayton-style regional settlement designed as an antidote to the Bush administration’s unilateralist policies.

Of course, Obama’s stance flows from a multi-lateralist attitude which in itself is laudable. In general, it makes sense for the United States to rely more on national and regional equilibriums than to seek to micro-manage in the name of democracy. But in the specific case of Iraq, there is a responsibility for correcting past mistakes as part of a viable exit strategy. Democrats cannot simply close their eyes and imagine that the Iraq of 2008 in any way represents a natural state of affairs, and that a quick withdrawal automatically will prompt some kind of Hobbesian reset whereby the country will find back to its true self. Real change in Iraq would mean that Obama realised that for five years straight the United States has promoted and consolidated an artificial sectarian system in the country, and that disengagement from Iraq should also aim at reversing this trend. The real challenge is not to reconcile Sunnis and Shiites and Kurds but to bring Powers That Aren’t into the system. The instrument to do this is not some kind of federalism magic or a complex oil distribution formula, but to move away from the sectarian quota system more generally and towards a traditional state model with autonomy for the Kurds and more modest decentralisation in the rest of the country. And Biden should remember that the only thing that is artificial about today’s Iraq is the particular selection of sectarian leaders that the Bush administration has anointed to lead the country, and the exaggerated Iranian influence that comes with some of them.

Also on this subject:
Partition Iraq? Imperial Iraq Strategies from Sulayman the Magnificent to Joseph R. Biden
(Notes for a lecture presented at the University of Chicago, the University of Michigan and George Washington University, 11–15 January 2008)
Nonsense of Congress on Federalism in Iraq (13 December 2007)
The US Senate Votes to Partition Iraq. Softly. (27 September 2007)

(1) Sam Parker with the U.S. Institute for Peace (USIP) explains the Powers That Be/Powers That Aren't (PTB/PTA) dichotomy as follows: The PTB/PTA dynamic is different from "government" and "opposition" in two important ways. First, PTA includes the Awakenings, Sadris, emerging nationalist groups, tribal leaders, etc. who either aren't represented in governing institutions at all or, in the case of the Sadris, for whom there is a tenuous relationship between the militant street movement and the guys in the COR. Moreover, many of these groups, first the Sadris and now the Awakenings (and whoever gets rolled up with these two groups along the way), are facing active, military persecution by the PTB. There is an intense effort to keep them shut out of all governing institutions. This portion of the PTA cannot accurately be described as "opposition" in any sense. They are too disenfranchised to be the opposition, and they're surely not in parliament.

Second, it is true that the PTA also does include the parliamentary opposition. But even here, opposition/government doesn't adequately convey the dynamics. In a normal parliamentary political system, there is an assumption that the government can be voted out and replaced, that this transition of power will occur peacefully as a result of everyone following the rules. But what if you have a ruling coalition that never intends to share power if it can get away with it, openly flouts parliamentary procedure, owns the "state" security services in a way that is very unlikely to be transferrable, all within a set of governing institutions that has not once experienced a peaceful transition of power? The PTB are trying to lock up and shut down the political system, whatever rudiments of democratic institutions may be formally in place. Opposition/government does not convey any of this dynamic. However, it is exactly this dynamic of being "shut out" that the "street" PTA and the parliamentary PTA share, and what I think is captured by the PTA/PTB dichotomy.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Experience the 2008 IRAQ FORUM

The humanitarian impact of the war in Iraq is one of the most ignored and urgent crises of our time. To bring more attention to the crisis, EPIC organized Iraq Action Days – a joint initiative of more than 20 organizations – bringing hundreds of constituents to Washington DC to demand humanitarian action for peace in Iraq.

A major part of Iraq Action Days is The 2008 IRAQ FORUM: a series of panels and lectures by the best minds on Iraq, including United Nations and government officials, human rights advocates, aid workers and leading experts from Iraq and the region. Thanks to participation from activists across the country, the Q and A discussion was lively and extremely informative, particularly in challenging government officials to do more. For the first time, you can watch the 2008 IRAQ FORUM online in its entirety.

Become part of the experience. Watch the 2008 IRAQ FORUM now.


Introduction (4:17) from Sarah Shannon on Vimeo.

What are the latest trends in violence? How are innocent civilians affected by the conflict? Why is so little known about the second largest displaced population in the world? What is being done and what must still be done to help vulnerable Iraqis? The 2008 IRAQ FORUM addresses these questions and more.

Video caption: Opening remarks by MC Zahir Janmohamed from Amnesty International and Erik Gustafson of the Education for Peace in Iraq Center.(IRAQ FORUM, April 14, 2008).

Saturday, August 09, 2008

Putting Iraq's Budget Surplus into Context

More than 2 million Iraqis have fled the country, while another 2.8 million people are internally displaced. To make matter worse, Iraqis are facing the worst drought in ten years. Millions live in hunger or fear of starvation.

Meanwhile here in the U.S., the lead Iraq story is the Iraqi government's budget surplus. A new GAO report projects that Iraq's cumulative budget surplus could reach as high as $79 billion by year's end. Pundits and politicians are asking: "They have the money so what's the problem?" The problem begins with decades of war, tyranny and sanctions that hampered Iraq's development. Then the U.S. toppled Iraq's government, allowed government ministries to be looted and destroyed, dismissed civil servants with any ties to Saddam's Baath Party, disbanded Iraq's military, created a security vacuum, which led many Iraqi professionals to flee the country.

Last Friday, a New York Times editorial declared: "Iraq now lacks the trained professionals to prepare and execute budgets and to solicit, award and oversee capital projects. The United States must redouble its efforts to help Iraq build this capacity, including bringing back skilled Iraqis who have fled the country."

Yes, Iraq's government can and must do better. But at the same time, as both the GAO report and New York Times point out, the U.S. is NOT off the hook. Until Iraq's government is fully functional, the U.S. has a moral and international obligation to address the unmet humanitarian needs of vulnerable Iraqis, and to work with the international community to provide technical capacity-building assistance to Iraq's government.

On a national, provincial, and municipal level, assistance is needed to build up:
  • Institutional Capacities - Policies, strategies and implementing tools are in place to ensure efficient coordination and management of aid.
  • Human Capacities - Skilled, trained personnel are in place to implement policies and strategies, and to maintain the government-donor interface.
  • Structural / Economic Capacities - Capacity of the recipient country’s economy to absorb additional aid with minimal distortion (“dutch disease”) etc.
Progress in building up Iraq's capacities would not only allow implementing agencies to spend down their budgets, it would have a profound impact on the security, health and welfare of Iraq's 27 million people. For more about Iraq's budget surplus and other ongoing challenges facing Iraqi officials, see Reports: 8/6/2008 below.

Photo caption: A man sows a crop on a dry field on the outskirts of Najaf, 100 miles south of Baghdad, Iraq, Wednesday, July 2, 2008. It's been a year of drought and sand storms across Iraq, a dry spell that has devastated the country's crucial wheat crop and created new worries about the safety of drinking water (AP Photo by Alaa Al-Marjani).

Friday, August 08, 2008

A Vicious Cycle: Violence and Displacement in Iraq

Last week, we attended an panel discussion with Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group (ICG) and Michel Gabaudan of UNHCR: the UN Refugee Agency at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They discussed the findings of ICG's new report, "Failed Responsibility: Iraqi Refugees in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon", which underscores the deepening crisis and failure of the Iraqi government and wider international community to meet the needs of vulnerable Iraqis.

Hilterman and Gabaudan strongly agree that Iraq’s stability can be improved by addressing the displacement crisis. The ICG Report describes how the forced exodus of millions of Iraqis profoundly impacts the security situation, an interaction generally overlooked by the American public.
Triggered by the violence in Iraq, the refugee crisis indirectly helps sustain and finance it [insurgency]. Armed groups whose actions led Iraqis to flee eagerly seized the properties they abandoned, either allocating them to supporters and co-religionists or selling them to generate funds. Such large-scale expropriation likely will fuel future strife if and when refugees return and try to reclaim their homes. As refugees fled, they often were robbed by armed militias and criminal gangs or charged levies at unofficial checkpoints manned by armed groups. Moreover, the exodus contributed to the sectarian homogenization of formerly mixed neighborhoods; this enabled armed groups to consolidate their control, recruit new fighters and levy taxes and fees to bankroll their violent activities. All in all, militias and armed groups exploited the refugee crisis for self-enrichment and war racketeering.
As the ICG Report demonstrates, the humanitarian crisis and security situation are directly connected and both must be addressed to create stability. Furthermore, the panelists discussed how, at play in Iraq right now is a destabilizing and vicious cycle with violence causing displacement, which incites further violence. The report examines other ways in which the cycle manifests itself:
The mass exodus jeopardized Iraq's stability in yet another way. Many who left are professionals and administrators from the middle class. A shortage of such skilled laborers and managers inevitably hinders reconstruction. The reverse also is true: among those who remained are many who benefited from patronage or political protection. Having taken de facto control of the state's mid-management levels, they will not readily relinquish their gains. In other words, the refugee crisis further politicized the bureaucracy. Overall, these dynamics have given rise to a vicious economic cycle: violence triggers flight, flight hampers reconstruction, and faltering reconstruction in turn fuels violence.
Hiltermann and Gabaudan stressed that the humanitarian crisis in Iraq is directly linked to security conditions, and therefore national stability. During the forum, Hiltermann noted that this serves as the perfect example of a "crossover issue where humanitarian issues have a great impact on the issue of stability and peace."

To create a more peaceful and secure Iraq, this destabilizing cycle of violence and displacement must be halted. Actively confronting the humanitarian crisis and addressing the needs of vulnerable Iraqis will help bring about stability and security to the nation and facilitate a safe environment for all Iraqis.

Photo Caption: Dr. Joost Hiltermann on the NewsHour on PBS

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

The State of Iraq's Public Health: a Ground's Eye View from Baghdad

On July 24, EPIC had the pleasure of hosting a discussion with Doctor Kadum Al Hilfy, an Iraqi physician visiting the United States for two months (he returned to Iraq in late July). The gathering was an intimate group NGO community at Amnesty International USA. Dr. Al Hilfy, the 2006 Middle East Doctor of the Year, presented the findings of the World Health Organization’s Iraq Family Health Survey (2007) and shared his firsthand perspective on the state of public health in Iraq.

To collect data, the survey was administered to 9,345 households, including surveying 14,675 women of reproductive age, in over 1,000 neighborhoods and villages in Iraq between 2006 and 2007. It is the first family Health survey to cover all governorates in Iraq by regions and by urban and rural residence.

View Dr. Al Hilfy's PowerPoint Presentation (PowerPoint 5.6MB)

The IFHS was conducted to update and expand the Iraqi national health database through health indicators, such as women’s morbidity and mortality; and measures of disparities in health. The major concern that Dr. Al Hilfy communicated to the group was the accessibility of healthcare, which is strongly influenced by the security situation. According to the doctor, “the main health indicators will deteriorate if the security situation does not improve in the near future…the use of health facilities will decrease as the security situation gets worse, preventing access to preventative and curative healthcare.” It is important to keep in mind that this survey was first administered in 2006, before we started seeing security improvements. However, as the doctor reiterated, access to healthcare remains a huge concern.

How do Iraqis pay for healthcare? The report finds that about one third, 29.8%, said that they had to borrow the money from relatives, friends, or from other sources, while 7.6% relied on selling items and 5.5% used savings to pay for health services. In Kurdistan, the numbers are similar: 24.9% borrowed from relatives or friends, 12.3% used savings, and 5.4% depend on selling items.

A household becomes impoverished when a high proportion of its money is allocated for healthcare payments. The IFHS survey shows that this process occurred in 7.6% of households. Furthermore, about 10% of the non-poor households will become impoverished because of healthcare payments. More often those living in rural areas are impoverished because of healthcare payment (9.2%) than those living in urban areas (6.8%). Dr. Al Hilfy also spoke about the prevalence of domestic violence in Iraq and the difficulties faced in determining the true level that exists:
Collection of data on domestic violence is challenging due to a culture of silence that surrounds the topic. Asking about violence, especially in households where the perpetrator may be present at the time of the interview, also carries the risk of further violence. The IFHS therefore adhered to rigorous ethical and safety standards related to the investigation of domestic violence. It was possible to obtain privacy in 95.6% of the interviews conducted. In the remaining 4.4% of the interviews privacy could not be secured.

In total, 33.4% of women report at least one form of emotional violence. The acts of emotional violence reported by the greatest number of women are the husband belittling or insulting her (22.3%), humiliating her in front of others (21.7%), and scaring or intimidating her (18.3%). The youngest age group report the lowest levels of emotional violence, with 29.2% of 15 to 24 year olds reporting at lest one act of emotional violence. The age group with the highest percentage of women who report having experienced at least one or more attack of emotional violence is the oldest age group, with 26.8% reporting at least one act.
For more information on women’s health I explored Women for Women’s 2008 Stronger Women Stronger Nations report. According to the report, “63.9% of respondents stated that violence against women in general was increasing. In central Iraq and Baghdad, this number jumps to 91.9% and 72.0%, respectively.”

Dr. Al Hilfy also discussed mental health in Iraq, which is a serious concern: roughly 40% of males and 30% of females report high emotional distress. However, Dr. Al Hilfy noted that there is an increasing emphasis in the health community on mental health, and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). PTSD is defined by the American Psychological Association as a psychological condition experienced by a person who had faced a traumatic event which caused a catastrophic stressor outside the range of usual human experience (an event such as war, torture, rape, or natural disaster). Due to the conditions in Iraq, many citizens have been exposed to conditions that are completely beyond the scope of average life. The intense changes made to their society coupled with the breakdown of structure and peace in communities has greatly impacted the mental and physical health of Iraqi populations.

Over half of the respondents had felt nervous, tense or worried in the previous 30 days. A large proration of the respondents also indicate that they are easily tired, often have headaches, and also feel tired all the time. 3.5% of the respondents stated that they thought of ending their own life, while 7.8% thought that they were a worthless person at some point in the month before the survey.

We would like to thank Dr. Al Hilfy for sharing his expertise and unique perspective of the public health sector in Iraq with us and commend him for his efforts to improve healthcare for all Iraqis.

Photo Caption: Dr. Thamer Kadum Yousif Al Hilfy discusses the current state of the public health sector in Iraq.

Reports: 8/6/2008

Key reports on the Iraq relief and development:

Stabilizing and Rebuilding Iraq: Iraqi Revenues, Expenditures, and Surplus
Government Accountability Office (GAO)
August 2008
From 2005 through 2007, the Iraqi government generated an estimated $96 billion in cumulative revenues (mostly from oil sales). For 2008, GAO estimates that Iraq could generate as much as $86 billion in total revenues. From 2005 through 2007, the Iraqi government spent an estimated $67 billion on operating and investment activities. The Iraqi government spent only 1% of total expenditures to maintain Iraq- and U.S.-funded investments such as buildings, water and electricity installations. From 2005 through 2007, Iraq was unable to spend all its budgeted funds. In 2007, Iraq spent 80% of its $29 billion operating budget and 28% of its $12 billion investment budget. For 2008, GAO estimates that Iraq could spend as much as $35.9 billion of its $49.9 billion budget. As a result, GAO estimates a cumulative budget surplus of about $29 billion from 2005 to 2007 and projects an additional $38 to $50 billion budget surplus for 2008 (although a proposed $22 billion Iraqi budget supplemental could reduce this projected surplus). U.S. and international officials identify the shortage of trained staff, weak procurement and budgeting systems, violence and sectarian strife, and other factors affecting the Iraqi government’s ability to spend more of its revenues on capital investments.

Failed Responsibility: Iraqi Refugees in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon
International Crisis Group (ICG)
July 2008
Although the security situation in Iraq shows progress, Iraqi refugees remain stranded, jobless and deprived of essential services, while the Iraqi government and the wider international community have failed in their responsibilities and are ill prepared to cope with a new refugee crisis, should it occur. While initially welcoming their Iraqi brethren, ICG reports that Syria and Jordan have put tough restrictions on entry. They provide few basic services and inadequate opportunities for jobs, health care and children's education. If the host countries can be faulted for unfriendly treatment of refugees, they deserve credit for receiving so many at great cost to their societies. By contrast, it is difficult to give the Iraqi government any credit. Flush with oil money, it has been conspicuously ungenerous toward its citizens stranded abroad. The attitude of Western nations also has been deeply troubling.

Iraq Displacement 2008 Mid-Year in Review
International Organization for Migration (IOM)
July 2008
During the first half of 2008, trends of decreased violence and a declining rate of displacement continued throughout the country. Yet the deteriorating conditions facing the 2.8 million Internally Displaced People (IDPs), as well as the limited returnee population, remain one of the most serious humanitarian crises in the world. The report finds that about half of the population continue to get their water from unsafe sources -- 53% from nearby rivers and streams and 52% from open or broken pipes. Meanwhile, shelter is consistently among the highest-priority needs cited by IDPs, and eviction threats coupled with rapidly rising rental prices have created an even more precarious housing situation in recent months. Food access was also poor, only three in ten had regular access to food rations. About half had intermittent access and 21% no access at all. In addition, approximately two million Iraqis are refugees, mostly in neighboring Syria and Jordan, resulting in a total of 5 million internally and externally displaced.

Assessment on Returns to Iraq Amongst Iraqi Refugee Population in Syria
United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR)
April 2008
A survey of nearly 1,000 Iraqis currently staying in Syria has shown that 95 percent fled their homeland because of direct threats or general insecurity and that only 4 percent currently had plans to return to Iraq.

Consolidated Appeal for Iraq 2008
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
February 2008
Conflict in Iraq has exacerbated chronic problems that stem from the past two decades. An estimated four million people in the country are in need of food assistance as the Public Distribution System is weakened, and only 40 percent of the population has reliable access to safe drinking water. As part of the global Consolidated Appeal Process (CAP) for 2008, the $265 million Emergency Appeal for Iraq brings together 14 UN agencies and 10 NGOs to deliver urgent relief to vulnerable people in Iraq over the next 12 months. Priority areas include health and nutrition, education, water and sanitation, housing and shelter, food, and protection. These operations are designed to move into recovery programs and are part of a wider effort to support Iraq’s own goals for stability and recovery.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Why McCain Needs a New Plan

Last month, we challenged Senator Barack Obama to update his Iraq policy position. Today we turn our attention to Senator John McCain.

Since the 2003 U.S. invasion, McCain has been a critic of the Bush administration's handling of the war in Iraq. McCain questioned U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's decision to deploy too few troops to win the peace, later calling him "one of the worst secretaries of defense in history." McCain condemned the U.S. treatment of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Ghraib and worked to strengthen U.S. prohibitions on torture. When sectarian violence skyrocketed following the February 2006 Samarra bombing, McCain again called for an increase in troops. After Rumsfeld's resignation, President Bush finally came around to McCain's view, announcing the deployment of 20,000 additional U.S. troops as part of his "surge" strategy.

While McCain has established his credibility on military issues, many of the challenges facing Iraq today require progress on the civilian side. Gen. David Petraeus got it right when he testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee early last year: "Some of the members of this committee have observed that there is no military solution to the problems of Iraq. They are correct. Ultimate success in Iraq will be determined by actions in the Iraqi political and economic arenas."

The estimated unemployment rate in Iraq is between 35 and 50 percent. By comparison, when U.S. unemployment hit 25 percent during the Great Depression, FDR declared a national emergency, establishing the Works Progress Administration to rapidly put people back to work. High unemployment can lead to civil unrest, poverty, and crime. In Iraq, it has been a major source of instability, making it easier for criminal gangs, insurgents, and militias to find recruits. As both military and civilian experts note, sustainable security requires sustainable job creation.

Sustainable security will also require an aggressive diplomatic effort in the region as proposed by the Iraq Study Group report. Instead, McCain's website proposes that the United States “bolster its regional military posture to make clear to Iran our determination to protect our forces and deter further Iranian intervention.” Yet a military deterrence-based strategy can only go so far and suggests an ongoing heavy troop commitment that is neither sustainable, nor in our best interest. McCain ought to reconsider the value of American diplomacy and peace-building, as recommended by former Secretary of State James Baker and former U.S. Representative Lee Hamilton.

McCain would further distinguish himself from President Bush by saying two words: "Iraqi refugees." To this day, neither Bush nor McCain have publicly acknowledged the humanitarian crisis facing millions of Iraqis. McCain's campaign website makes no mention of how he will respond to the needs of more than 2 million Iraqi refugees (the second largest refugee population in the world) and another 2.8 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Iraq. Nor has McCain offered a plan to help more than 17 million Iraqis who do not have reliable access to clean water or the 4 million Iraqis who live in hunger or fear of starvation.

Freelance journalist Hanna Ingber Win writes: "While McCain has put the Iraq War at the center of his campaign, he studiously avoids any real discussion of the humanitarian crisis. His campaign has denied repeated requests for an interview on this topic."

Bush's former chief speechwriter Michael Gerson advises ending the silence. He writes: “Helping Iraqi refugees on a larger scale is not an embarrassing necessity [for the administration]. It is an opportunity to show consistency, humanitarian concern and constructive, long-term engagement in the Middle East.”

It's time for McCain to break his silence about the plight of Iraqi refugees, and start a conversation with the American people about how the United States can re-balance its policy in Iraq through effective diplomacy, development and peace-building.

Here at EPIC, we will continue to challenge both candidates to do much better.

Photo Caption: Senator John McCain gives a thumbs-up to his supporters. USA Today

Monday, August 04, 2008

Headlines 8/4/08

Standing Down as Iraq Stands Up
Foreign Affairs
September/October 2008
Stephen Biddle, Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack write about how the situation in Iraq is improving and, with the right strategy, the United States will eventually be able to draw down troops without sacrificing stability.

Elections Bill in Iraq Stalls on Kirkuk
Washington Post
August 4, 2008
Sudarsan Raghavan and Qais Mizher write about how vital attempts at national reconciliation have fallen short due to disputes about the provincial elections in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq

The Last Battle
New York Times Sunday Magazine
August 3, 2008
Michael Gordon describes the Shiite power struggle and the threat it poses to recent security gains.

Foreign Aid Workers Slowly Returning to Iraq
Washington Post
July 31, 2008
Tim Cocks reports on the impact that improved security situations may have on humanitarian aid efforts

A Shiite Militia in Baghdad Sees Its Power Wane
New York Times
July 27, 2008
Sabrina Tavernise writes about developments in Sadr City

Books not Bombs
New York Times
June 26, 2008
Nicholas Kristof describes struggles of some of Iraq refugees, specifically children, in Jordan

Driving Cabs Instead of Building Bridges, Iraqis Languish in U.S.
Washington Post
June 25, 2008
Pamela Constable writes about the struggles of Iraqi refugees once they have been resettled in the United States

The Shortchanging of Iraqi Refugees
Los Angeles Times
June 23, 2008
Morton Abramowitz discusses the American response to the humanitarian crisis in Iraq verse our response to the displacement crises following Vietnam and the first Gulf War

Is Maliki a Friend to Iraqi Refugees?

On a recent visit to Germany, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said he wanted to "encourage the thousands of Iraqis who fled the spiraling violence in their country in recent years to return home." At an international conference on Iraq in Stockholm, Prime Minister Maliki stated, “We have statistics that say that tens of thousands of refugees wish to return. We welcome them, we will give them privileges.” He is even going so far as to try and entice refugees to return to Iraq with promises of money when they return.

These statements by the Prime Minister are interesting for two reasons. First, Maliki's assessment that there are "thousands" of Iraqis who fled the country is a drastic understatement. According to recent estimates, there are as many as 2 million Iraqi refugees, roughly 750,000 in Jordan alone. But more importantly,
the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) recommends that Iraqi refugees not return home yet because security conditions are not stable enough to support returns. In addition, a report recently published by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) states that “safe repatriation cannot be undertaken now or in the foreseeable future.”

Why is Maliki urging Iraqis to do specifically what the UNHCR and ground-based aid organizations say not to do?

One reason is politics. A large-scale return of Iraqi refugees back into Iraq would serve as a clear indication that Maliki’s security plan is succeeding and surely bolsters perceptions about his performance. There is a national election in Iraq in 2009 and, just like in the United States, public opinion matters even more around election time. Maliki wants to reinforce the notion that he is the right man to lead Iraq.

Another factor contributing to Maliki’s recent drive to encourage refugees to return to Iraq is the need for human capital. Many of the individuals who fled Iraq to escape violence were the professionals and educated middle-class Iraqis who had the resources and means to do so. As a result, Iraq lost a vast amount of human capital; its doctors, professors, and various experts. The process of rebuilding Iraq and creating a stable atmosphere will take two things: money and educated professionals. Iraq has no shortage of money; its estimated oil revenue for the 2008 fiscal year is 32 billion dollars; however it lacks the community-building experts who know how to effectively and efficiently allocate the money to produce the best results needed for structure. Maliki is attempting to regain some of the human capital that Iraq needs to rebuild and ensure that the recent improvements endure the test of time.

Despite Maliki’s assurances that Iraq is now safe for refugees to return home, some Iraqis are hesitant to trust him. In a report on Iraqi refugees in Jordan, Anna Badkhen, writing for the San Francisco Chronicle, quotes Raad Desher, a former goldsmith from Baghdad: “We don't believe Maliki…Militias are still killing people. Every day we hear news about new bombs in Iraq. We have no choice but to stay here.”

Clearly refugees must be encouraged to return only when security conditions allow for it. The the IRC report states: “We believe it is both dangerous and irresponsible to lure desperate refugees home with misleading statements about improved safety and security. Refugees should be discouraged from returning home to communities where they will not be safe.”
So is Maliki just looking out for his own political interest, or does he truly believe that the security conditions permit a large-scale return of Iraqi refugees and the UNHCR is wrong?

Photo Caption: Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki delivers a speech
 
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