Origins of the Iraqi Conflict and Crisis

The room buzzes as the weather outside peaks at a mere 40 degrees. Inside the audience is perking up, munching sugary pastries, sipping coffee and taking in the energy of fellow activists here to make change.

Gathered at Rutgers School of Law for Iraq at the Crossroads: Protecting Refugees, Rescuing our Allies, and Empowering Iraqi Law, these 200+ concerned citizens and academics have come together to work for a free and secure Iraq. The event, hosted at Rutgers on October 24, 2008, was sponsored by Iraq War veteran Kevin Murphy and his fellow Law Record colleagues.

One of the greatest challenges to the stability of Iraq is what Sam Parker of the U.S. Institute of Peace calls “sectarian entrepreneurs.” Speaking on the first panel of the day, he says that conflicts of identity and power have erupted in the absence of government institutions and are without historical precedent. The diverse groups of Iraq have historically gotten along well and it is largely in times of intervention by outside forces that Iraqis have violently broken into sectarian division.

Daniel Rothenberg of DePaul University joins in, coining this an “Economy of Violence.” He says that in the absence of a strong government and basic infrastructures, such as job opportunities and education, Iraqis have become unemployed, idle, hungry, and angry. Force and violence often seem the only means of survival, and in desperation, Iraqis have formed militias, raping and pillaging their neighborhoods, taking what they need.

Such violence and torture was iconic Saddam—an eerie parallel with Iraq’s troubled history.

“There is little difference between suffering by those who were taken by Saddam in the past, and the militias or peshmergas we see today,” continues Professor Rothenberg. Rape, in particular, has become a widely used method of violence, especially against Shi’a woman. Rapes in front of family members are increasingly common.

Terror and fear have gripped the Iraqi people as cities have been burned, schools bombed, families broken. The relatively peaceful coexistence of Shi’a, Sunni, Kurds and Iraq’s many minority groups has been erased by sectarian entrepreneurs. Seeking protection, Iraq’s people have found little alternative than to retreat to their tribal and religious groups, further dividing and isolating themselves.

“The explanation is more than just century old hatreds,” says Rothenberg.

Among the many powerful concluding messages of the Rutgers conference was the necessity of sound government institutions to maintain order, provide for the people and ensure a prosperous, peaceful future.

Caption: Iraq's empty neighborhoods.

Iraqi Refugees: What Needs to Happen and What is Being Done

Julia is head of her family. A widow and mother, she fled Iraq shortly after her daughter was sexually assaulted in their home by an armed militia.

The family was once considered affluent, but without any employment and the exhaustion of their savings, this mother and daughter have no means of survival in Damascus, Syria, where they live today.

“Each person, like Julia, represents a compelling story,” said Bob Carey of International Rescue Committee and Refugee Council USA at Rutgers School of Law, where students, activists and academics gathered three weeks ago for Iraq at the Crossroads: Protecting Refugees, Rescuing our Allies, and Empowering Iraqi Law.

Julia and her daughter, like so many millions of Iraqis, find themselves with grave shortages and threats in Iraq’s neighbor countries of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan. “As urban refugees, many services can’t reach them,” continued Carey. “And there is a lack of images [of Iraqi refugees] as a catalyst to action.”

Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria are not signatories to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, which would require them to allow refugees to work, travel and go to school. As non-signers, they may also forcibly expel refugees back into Iraq, even if refugees’ homes remain unsafe.

Joining Bob Carey at the Rutgers conference was Hillary Ingraham of the U.S. State Department.

“While many Iraqis were initially able to sustain themselves, this is no longer possible,” said Ingraham.

She added that while registration for aid is available and encouraged, many Iraqi refugees do not approach the UNHCR and aid agencies. There is a prevailing stigma of registration for fear that they will be forcibly returned to Iraq. Registration, however, allows the UN and agencies to monitor the conditions of life and whereabouts of refugees, assist with housing, work and education, and provide heating fuel, food, and clothing.

The panel finished with Emily Gish of Mercy Corps, whose organization provides much-needed, immediate relief to Iraqi refugees outside of Iraq, as well as Iraq's internally displaced persons (IDPs) and vulnerable populations still within Iraq's borders. Mercy Corps' response to Iraqi displacement is strengthened through partnerships with the U.S. State Department, World Food Programme, Middle East Council of Churches, and a host of other organizations and agencies, enabling Iraqis both inside and outside of the country to receive much needed aid.

“Access to the health services, health education for pregnant women, mobile clinic, immunizations, water services, school supplies, warm clothes, and non-perishable foods,” she said, are some of the many services and goods provided. Mercy Corps also seeks to address the unique needs of Iraqi refugees who are victims of psychological, gender-based violence.

As the panel came to a close, Carey said any solution to the humanitarian crisis must be led by a UN ministerial conference. He added that the United States should fund 50% of what is requested by the UN, and called for a multi-year, multi-lateral, civilian-led resolution as the best way forward in Iraq.

Caption: (top) Panel speakers from right: Sana Hardina of Refugee Council USA, Hillary Ingraham of the U.S. Dept. of State, Emily Gish of Mercy Corps, and Bob Carey of International Rescue Committee/Refugee Council USA. By EPIC.

Caption: (left) Emily Gish of Mercy Corps. By EPIC.

Rajiv Chandrasekaran: How Early US Failures Created the Iraq of Today

It is Friday morning and Rajiv Chandrasekaran takes the stage. He pulls the microphone a little closer to his lips and welcomes the coffee-sipping audience of students, writers, activists.

“Iraqis believed they should have been free to determine their own destiny,” he said. “They were not a vanquished nation in need of overhaul at foreign hands.”

Chandrasekaran’s powerful address opened Iraq at the Crossroads: Protecting Refugees, Rescuing Our Allies, and Empowering Iraqi Law, hosted at Rutgers School of Law last Friday.

Chandrasekaran, author of Imperial Life in the Emerald City and National Editor for The Washington Post, served as the newspaper’s bureau chief in Baghdad from April 2003 to October 2004. From the Green Zone—or “neoconservative terrarium” as he has called it—Chandrasekaran reported on what he soon recognized as a dismal US failure to implement an effective strategy for post-Saddam Iraq:

I was appalled by how we Americans were squandering our window of opportunity to build stability in Iraq. Instead of focusing principally on creating jobs, the economic advisers inside the Green Zone set about rewriting Iraq's tax code. They spent countless hours drafting laws to protect genetically modified seeds, copyrighted movies and even the designs of microchips, instead of devoting the necessary resources to increase electricity production or repair hospitals.

Chandrasekaran explained how the absence of sound, structured policy and misplaced priorities can be understood in three pieces:

First, PEOPLE. The U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), which came to Baghdad after Saddam’s government fell, “sent the loyal and the willing.” When interviewed for positions by Pentagon officials, CPA hopefuls were asked questions like: “Are you a member of the Republican Party?” “What is your position on capital punishment?” and “How do you feel about Roe v. Wade?”

While fervent support of the Administration and a set of conservative, partisan values appeared necessary for employment with the CPA, international experience and knowledge of the Middle East were not— “More than half the CPA staff got their first passports to go to Iraq.”

Second, PLACE. Centered in Iraq’s Green Zone, members of the CPA had little or no immediate understanding of the chaos and ruin that was quickly befalling Iraq. Outside the Baghdad walls there was no clean or running water, looting and lawlessness erupted in the absence of government police forces, waste filled the streets, and Iraqi families took refuge in their homes waiting for the speedy delivery of democracy promised by President Bush.

Third, POLICY. Tax code reform took the top agenda seat while “New Deal-like policies” that would employ Iraqis to sweep the streets, maintain clean water systems, and restore electricity were not considered. Following the March 2003 intervention, looting, lawlessness, and traffic jams paralyzed the city as drivers sat in jammed intersections below Baghdad’s lifeless traffic lights. While the CPA was walled up in Baghdad’s Green Zone rewriting copyright laws, Iraqi civilians worried about the safety of their children and wondered how to educate their children at home now that schools were closing. Copyright infringement was probably not in the forefront of Iraqis’ minds.

Mr. Chandrasekaran explained that an understanding of post-invasion Iraq is crucial for understanding Iraq today. Without a plan for the months after Saddam was removed from power, the US government created many of the problems that have plagued the country after five years at war. Instead of working with pre-existing infrastructures of Iraq’s government, such as the city police forces and the military, the CPA and Washington elite insisted upon a complete overhaul. With unqualified leadership in Iraq, complete isolation within the fortifications of Baghdad’s Green Zone, and policies that failed to address the most critical and immediate concerns of the Iraqi people, the United States was signed up for a disorganized, violent and lengthy involvement from the very beginning.

In January Iraq will host provincial elections, an opportunity to elect new, more representative leaders, making Baghdad more directly accountable to Iraqi constituents. Unlike the last provincial elections in 2005, all of Iraq’s communities are expected to turn out in force, and Iraqi voters will have the opportunity to vote for individual candidates rather than faceless “party lists.”

Chandrasekaran suggested that as Baghdad’s government becomes one of the people, there will be more room to address the needs of Iraqis. Thanking the Rutgers students and community for addressing the urgent Iraqi humanitarian crisis, he said that peace and security can only be built with great focus on the needs of the Iraqi people.

*Hey there! If you have not yet joined the 14,000 Americans who have signed The Humanitarian Pledge, please do so today! Help us put the humanitarian needs of vulnerable Iraqis at the center of the U.S. policy debate on Iraq. You can also help us raise public awareness by sharing this one-page backgrounder about the crisis with your community.

EPIC to Join Groups Working to Alleviate Crisis at Friday's National Symposium

THIS FRIDAY at Rutgers School of Law in Newark, NJ, EPIC supporters will join Iraq War veteran Kevin Murphy for IRAQ AT THE CROSSROADS. Coming less than two weeks before the Presidential election, this important national gathering will explore one of the greatest humanitarian challenges to be faced by the next President of the United States.

IRAQ AT THE CROSSROADS: Protecting Refugees, Rescuing Our Allies, and Empowering Iraqi Law
A National Symposium at Rutgers School of Law, Newark, NJ
October 24th, 2008 (Friday) 8:30 am – 5:30 pm
Register online via http://www.lawrecord.com

EPIC is proud to announce that National Editor of The Washington Post, Rajiv Chandrasekaran, will deliver the opening keynote address. Speakers will also include Emily Gish of Mercy Corps, Bob Carey of International Rescue Committee, Sam Parker of the U.S. Institute of Peace, Rep. Bill Pascrell, Hilary Ingraham of the U.S. State Department, and others.

EPIC to Join Groups Working to Alleviate Crisis at Oct. 24th National Symposium

At this year's Iraq Action Days, EPIC supporters like you came to Washington DC to urge the Bush administration and Congress to do more to help innocent Iraqis affected by the war. Among the hundreds who participated was Kevin Murphy, an Iraq War veteran and Rutgers law student who has been a passionate advocate for Iraqi refugees since his return home.

Following Iraq Action Day, Kevin Murphy went back to his campus and got to work. Today, thanks to the extraordinary efforts of Kevin and his colleagues at Rutgers, we are proud to announce the next step in bringing the urgent humanitarian crisis to the center of our national discourse on Iraq:

IRAQ AT THE CROSSROADS: Protecting Refugees,
Rescuing Our Allies, and Empowering Iraqi Law
A National Symposium at Rutgers School of Law, Newark, NJ
October 24th, 2008 (Friday), 8:30 am - 5:30 pm
http://lawrecord.typepad.com/

This important conference will explore the plight of Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons, the unique dangers faced by Iraqis who helped the U.S., and how existing Iraqi law can be empowered to create peace in the country. Learn from and network with fellow activists, knowledgeable experts, and organizations taking humanitarian action for peace in Iraq.

Gathering two weeks before the Presidential election, featured speakers include Iraqi Judge Ra'id Juhi of the Saddam Hussein trial, Emily Gish of Mercy Corps, Bob Carey of International Rescue Committee, Zahir Janmohamed of Amnesty International, Sam Parker of the U.S. Institute of Peace, Kirk Johnson of The List Project, Congressman Bill Pascrell, and Hilary Ingraham of the U.S. State Department.

We hope you will join us on October 24 for this powerful symposium on the Iraqi Crisis. For more information please visit: http://lawrecord.typepad.com/

In the Next Obama-McCain Debate, Who Will Speak Up for Millions of Vulnerable Iraqis?

Here at EPIC we're disappointed but not surprised that we didn't hear Tom Brokaw ask a question about the humanitarian crisis facing millions of Iraqis. Given the global economic crisis, Americans are understandably focused on pocketbook issues close to home.

But in an increasingly interconnected world, it's important for the United States to be responsibly engaged in facing global challenges, especially challenges that we helped create.

Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq, millions of Iraqis have been forced to flee their homes. Years of violence, economic dislocation, and failures in the delivery of essential services have left 17 million Iraqis without reliable access to drinkable water. More than 4 million Iraqis live in fear of hunger. While security has improved significantly over the past year, the vast majority of Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) are staying put. With their own safety or that of their families in mind, they worry about the sustainability of recent security gains. For those who fled direct threats of persecution, they fear any return as long as their persecutor remains free.

Dear friends, we think it's time we had a broader conversation about Iraq. A conversation that goes beyond shallow, partisan questions like "Did the surge work or not?" There are additional questions that the candidates ought to answer: How will you help millions of Iraqis affected by a conflict that we helped create? Will you increase U.S. admissions of vulnerable Iraqi refugees? Will you strengthen humanitarian assistance to the region? Are you committed to supporting Iraq's peace and development?

We need to take these questions directly to the candidates.

In one week, Barack Obama and John McCain will square up for one last debate. Here’s your chance to ask them questions about our issues and to offer the answers you'd like to hear. If you keep your submission to a paragraph or less, you increase your chances of reaching a senior communications adviser or even one of the candidate.

Send your questions and talking points to each candidate via their websites:

Barack Obama | John McCain

Here's a sample from yours truly: Americans and Iraqis are interconnected by events over the past five and a half years. It's not enough to say you support "victory" or "ending the war" in Iraq, we want to know what you plan to do -- specifically -- to help millions of Iraqis who desperately need humanitarian relief and protection. In addition, what do you see as America's moral and international obligation to the people of Iraq?

Photo caption: Kurdish refugee camp in northern Iraq. Jasper Young/Panos Pictures

U.S. Leaders Reinforced Sectarian Division, says Iraq scholar Nabil Al-Tikriti

Among the most provocative speakers at the 2008 Iraq Action Days Forum was Nabil al-Tikriti, a Senior Fellow at the U.S. Institute for Peace (USIP) and a passionate critic of U.S. Iraq policy. His presentation details how a chain of uninformed decisions made by senior U.S. officials like former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Ambassador Paul Bremer reinforced sectarian divisions.


Panel 1 Part 2 (19:59) from Sarah Shannon on Vimeo.

Al-Tikriti’s talk clarifies numerous assumptions about the sectarian rift in Iraq: “Iraqis historically got along well unless there was external interference.”

Al-Tikriti contrasts the dominant U.S. narrative of ancient sectarian blood fueds (e.g. “why they hate each other”) with the Iraqi narrative of intermarriage, pluralism, and shared histories and cultures. He raises serious questions about how U.S. policy makers’ without sufficient knowledge of Iraq's history and culture were allowed to make decisions that affected the entire population. He adamantly rejects the idea of partitioning Iraq as a solution to the conflict, a position supported by Vice-presidential Candidate Joe Biden.

Instead he boldly suggests that D.C. pundits advocating the partitioning of Iraq should be forced at gunpoint to load up their BMWs and relocate to Mississippi where they are given shelter in a crowded public building.

Among the important questions that Mr. al-Tikriti raises about U.S. involvement in Iraq: Is the surge successful and sustainable? What are the legacies of the U.S. led invasion of Iraq? How can any negative ramifications be reversed?

Sen. Clinton Joins Rep. Hastings in Championing Bill to Authorize Multi-year Humanitarian Funding for Vulnerable Iraqis

Last week Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) introduced Senate companion legislation to Representative Hastings' (D-FL) bill H.R. 6496, The Iraqi Refugee and Internally Displaced Persons Humanitarian Assistance, Resettlement, and Security Act of 2008. The bill — S.3541 — addresses the humanitarian crisis in and surrounding Iraq, authorizing multi-year funding for a comprehensive humanitarian plan to assist millions of Iraqis who have fled violence and instability in their homeland. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), more than 2 million Iraqis are internally displaced and another 2 million Iraqis have found refuge in the neighboring countries of Jordan, Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Egypt and Turkey.

“The United States has an obligation to address this great and growing crisis in Iraq and other countries in the region,” said Clinton. “This legislation will take important steps to ease the burden on host countries that have seen this influx of refugees and to help resettle the displaced population within Iraq.”

H.R.6496/S.3541 would require the U.S. to:

• Authorizes $700 million for FY 2009, 2010 and 2011 for the relief of Iraqi refugees, internally displaced persons, and other vulnerable Iraqis;
• Increases direct accountable bilateral assistance, as appropriate under U.S. law, and funding for international organizations and NGOs working in the region;
• Authorizes $500 million to increase humanitarian aid and infrastructure support for Jordan;
• Develop an immediate and long-term strategy for Iraq, in coordination with the Government of Iraq, United Nations (UN), nongovernmental organizations (NGO’s), and host countries, to meet the humanitarian and security needs of refugees and Internally Displaced People (IDP’s); and
• Work with the Government of Iraq, the UN, and NGO’s to improve the Iraqi Government’s capacity and ability to provide relief for all communities of vulnerable populations throughout Iraq.
• Lead efforts in resettling persecuted Iraqis by raising the ceiling on U.S. admissions of Iraqi refugees by at least 20,000 during fiscal years 2009, 2010, and 2011.

This bill brings much needed attention to the plight of Iraqis traumatized by violence, persecution, and the loss of loved ones. If passed into law, H.R.6496/S.3541 would require U.S. humanitarian action for peace in Iraq.

We hope you'll join us in supporting this important legislation. Urge your Senators and Representative to cosponsor The Iraqi Refugee and Internally Displaced Persons Humanitarian Assistance, Resettlement, and Security Act of 2008. You can reach your elected Member of Congress via the Capitol switchboard at (202) 225-3121 or (202) 226-3121.

Organizations supporting H.R.6496/S.3541 include:

The Campaign for Innocent Victims of Conflict (CIVIC)
CHF International
Church World Service
Congregation of Divine Providence of San Antonio, TX
Congregation of the Sisters of Charity of the Incarnate Word, Houston, Texas
Education for Peace in Iraq Center (EPIC)
International Medical Corps
International Rescue Committee
The Iraq Foundation
The Leadership Conference on Women Religious
The Maryknoll Office for Global Concerns
Mercy Center
Mercy Corps
National Catholic Peace Movement
NETWORK
Office of Justice and Peace of the Sisters of Charity of New York
Open Society Policy Center
Pax Christi USA: the Presbyterian Church (USA)
Refugees International
Save the Children
Sisters of Charity of the Blessed Virgin Mary of Dubuque, Iowa
Sisters of Charity of Leavenworth, Kansas City, Kansas
Sisters of Mercy of the Americas Institute Justice Team
Sisters of St. Francis in Tiffin, Ohio,
Sisters of St. Joseph NW, Pennsylvania

Photo caption: Joined by fellow Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, Clinton speaks with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad, Iraq. Courtesy of Ali Al-Saadi-Pool, Getty Images.

Senators Casey & Cardin Call for Humanitarian Strategy to Assist Vulnerable Iraqis

New Senate legislation has brought much needed attention to the plight of Iraqis, a move that has energized organizers and advocates for peace and justice in Iraq. On September 17, 2008 U.S. Senators Bob Casey (D-PA) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) introduced S.3509 ‘Support for Vulnerable and Displaced Iraqis Act of 2008’. The bill would require the Secretary of State to develop a comprehensive plan to:

“address the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Iraq and potential security breakdown resulting from the mass displacement of Iraqis inside Iraq and as refugees into neighboring countries.”

Senator Casey’s bill cites some startling statistics. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), up to 2,000,000 Iraqis have fled their homes due to instability and violence within the region. Most of these refugees are unable to obtain legal status needed to work in the host countries and have limited access to healthcare and education. Lack of NGO and UN resources to identify and aid the refugees compounds the crisis. Within Iraqi borders the situation is just as unsettling. Another 2,700,000 estimated Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) as well as other vulnerable populations are currently lacking adequate food, shelter, healthcare, clean water and other basic necessities. According to a recent statement made by Senator Casey,

“We have a moral responsibility to help the millions of Iraqis who have been displaced from their homes. It is my hope that this bill will take the necessary first steps to develop a long-term strategy to address the needs of vulnerable Iraqis.”

Additional findings made by Congress emphasize the destabilizing affects of massive displacement within Iraq and the overwhelming social, economic and security stresses placed on bordering host countries due to an immense influx of refugees. The bill asserts that these factors have yet to be addressed by the government. In a recent statement, Senator Cardin highlights this point:

“The lack of planning on the part of this administration and the absence of any long-term comprehensive plan to deal with refugees, threatens to destabilize the entire region and undermine security in Iraq.”

S.3509 further states that the U.S. should take the lead in combating the humanitarian crisis in Iraq. However, the bill stresses that Iraq’s direct involvement and cooperation with the U.S. is key if the two countries want to alleviate suffering in the short-term and ultimately have successful resettlement of refugees, IDP’s and other vulnerable populations. Identifying what conditions are necessary for “voluntary, safe, sustainable” return of displaced Iraqis is a pivotal part of this process. The final objective stated in the bill calls for Congress to decide what policies are most urgently needed to reduce instability in the region.

There is enthusiastic backing for S.3509 among the non-profit community. Some of the organizations who have already given their full support are:

Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC)
CHF International
EPIC: Promoting a Free & Secure Iraq
International Medical Corps
International Rescue Committee
Maryknoll Office for Global Concerns
Mercy Corps
NETWORK
Presbyterian Church (USA), Washington Office
Refugees International
Save the Children
U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants
Friends Committee on National Legislation (FCNL)

Endorsement of this bill is growing because the 2008 ‘Support for Vulnerable and Displaced Iraqis Act’ is groundbreaking. Iraq is a frequent topic of debate in Congress yet the humanitarian aspect of the dilemma was often sidelined or given inadequate attention until now. S.3509 centers on the millions of Iraqis who have been forced to flee or relocate. If passed, this bill will bring the plight of displaced Iraqis squarely into the debate surrounding future U.S. policies toward Iraq. Call your Senators and urge them to support this important legislation.

Photo caption: Senators Casey and Durbin with Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih in the Green Zone.

Phebe Marr Places Iraq Crisis in Historical Context

Renown scholar and author of The Modern History of Iraq Dr. Phebe Marr delivered a fascinating speech at this year's Iraq Forum. For many Americans, their first introduction to Iraq was Saddam Hussein's abrupt entrance onto the world stage on August 2, 1990 with Iraq's annexation of Kuwait and the subsequent 1991 Gulf War. But of course Iraq's modern history predates 1990 and has tremendous relevance to what's happening today. Spanning four decades, Marr brings Iraq's recent history to life. She documents key events that illuminate current trends, and explains why the past must be considered in finding the best way forward.


Panel 1 Part 1 (28:59) from Sarah Shannon on Vimeo.

Dr. Marr begins her address with a brief chronicle of the turbulence that overwhelmed Iraq beginning with the 1958 military revolt up until the U.S. occupation in 2003. Although the most recent wave of refugees and internal displacement may be the largest in Iraq's history, it is not the first. Military coups, a brutal dictator, numerous wars, failed uprisings, and more than a decade of sanctions created previous waves of refugees. Understanding those occurrences can help explain the present crisis, as well as the social and political upheavals since the toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime.

As Marr explains, the creation of a “political vacuum” in post-Hussein Iraq was a catalyst for a sequence of trends that contributed to the humanitarian crisis. Yet Marr's prognosis is refreshingly measured. She sees little value in "happy talk" or pronouncements of "The End of Iraq." Instead, she offers an historical framework on which to build practical solutions. Click the video above and watch the introduction by Prof. Marc Lynch (aka Abu Aardvark in the blogosphere) and Dr. Marr's engaging presentation.

U.S. House Members Ask: Are Security Gains in Iraq Sustainable with Less Troops?

"The end of the war was never considered," declared Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina, the second ranking Democrat on the U.S. House Armed Services Committee. Thus began yesterday's hearing on U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen. A lot of discussion focused on plans to reduce U.S. forces in Iraq to pre-surge levels (less than 140,000) by February 2009.

According to Secretary Gates, "This continuing drawdown is possible because of the success achieved in reducing violence and building Iraqi security capacity."

However, Republican Rep. John M. McHugh of New York questioned the sustainability of security improvements and building up Iraqi security capacity while drawing down U.S. forces. He cited a July 2008 GAO report that finds significant deficiencies in the training of Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), including a shortage of U.S. personnel. According to the GAO, the U.S. military has failed to develop a comprehensive strategy to solve the shortage of manpower for training the ISF. Admiral Mullen said plans for comprehensive training are being addressed and that the root problem is a need for more personnel to train private security contractors (PSCs).

Secretary Gates also expressed caution about the rate of future troop withdrawals. Covering the hearing, today's Washington Post reports:

Despite their focus on Afghanistan, both Gates and Mullen said that the situation in Iraq remains uncertain and could require more forces in the future. "I worry that the great progress" by U.S. and Iraqi forces could override caution and lead to an excessively rapid drawdown, said Gates, noting that U.S. commanders in Iraq remain concerned about "many challenges and potential for reversals." In sum, he said, "we should expect to be involved in Iraq for years to come, although in changing and increasingly limited ways."

Another challenge to ensuring sustainable security in Iraq is the flagging development of Iraqi institutions and civil society, something Secretary Gates acknowledged in his testimony. However, when a Representative pointedly asked if Iraq is "coup-proof", Gates failed to mention the role that a strong civilian government and civil society can play in preventing a military takeover or return to widespread sectarian violence. Instead, he highlighted the Government of Iraq's reappointment of new military leaders as helping to ensure that all factions of Iraqi society feel represented and protected.

Indeed, writing "How to Leave a Stable Iraq" for Foreign Affairs, coauthors Stephen Biddle at the Council on Foreign Relations and Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack at the Brookings Institution highlight improvements in the ISF's composition and leadership.

Sectarian, corrupt, incompetent, and turncoat officers have been removed. Aggressive recruitment and new amnesty and de-Baathification ordinances have led to increases in both the number of Sunnis, especially in the officer corps, and the number of people with prior military experience in the forces. Now, about 80 percent of the Iraqi army's officers and 50 percent of its rank and file are veterans of Saddam Hussein's military, and one of the most capable units in the Iraqi army, the First Brigade of the First Infantry Division, is 60 percent Sunni

Of course, making Iraq both "coup proof" and peaceful will require additional democratic safeguards and a more holistic approach to building security. For example, consider the stabilizing role of humanitarian relief and protection for 4.8 million displaced Iraqis (nearly 17% of Iraq's entire population). Large numbers of Iraqi middle-class professionals -- desperately needed for Iraq's recovery and development -- have fled to Syria, Jordan, and other nearby countries. In addition, women, young children, and the elderly -- all of whom are the least likely to perpetrate violence -- are disproportionately represented among the dispossessed. By working to ensure the survival of all of these displaced Iraqis and by creating conditions in Iraq that allow many to eventually return -- voluntarily, in safety, and with dignity -- the U.S. and international community can support a 'virtuouse cycle' that leads to lasting peace and prosperity in Iraq.

Likewise, strengthening civilian institutions, improving public education, expanding access to health care, providing reliable electricity, and supporting the development of a vibrant Iraqi middle class are essential elements of healthy democracies.

To phase out the heavy U.S. military presence in Iraq responsibly, safely and with the careful consideration that was lacking at the war's inception, a re-balancing of U.S. policy on Iraq is needed. Congress ought to hold additional hearings to assess the U.S. administration's response to the humanitarian crisis in Iraq and the region, and what more can be done to stabilize Iraq through effective humanitarian relief and development assistance.

Photo Caption: Joint Chiefs Chairman Michael Mullen testifies before a House panel on developing security conditions and U.S. military requirements in Iraq and Afghanistan (Source: Washington Post, 9/10/08, photo by Mark Wilson, Getty Images).

A Crisis Too Big for Iraq Alone: a remarkable speech by Iraq's Ambassador to the U.S.

In the following video, Iraq’s first Ambassador to the U.S. in 16 years, His Excellency Samir Sumaida’ie, delivers an impassioned opening keynote address at the 2008 National Iraq Forum. Introducing him is former U.S. Ambassador to Jordan Edward Gnehm, Jr., a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.

Ambassador Sumaida’ie addresses the plight of his compatriots as a man who knows what it's like to flee one’s homeland. Following Saddam's seizure of power in 1973, he was forced to do just that. He was 29 years old.

The rapid deterioration of Iraq from 2003 through 2007 raises serious questions: How did a nation “liberated from tyranny and oppression” become less secure? Why is there a large-scale humanitarian crisis? How have pre-war conditions and post-war policies contributed to the violence? And, perhaps most critically, what can and is being done by the government of Iraq, the United States, and civil society to help Iraq's most vulnerable citizens, including an estimated 4.8 million Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs)?


Opening Keynote (21:12) from Sarah Shannon on Vimeo.

Ambassador Sumaida’ie offers answers and a certain pragmatism that neither condemns nor excuses his government from its responsibility to protect and assist Iraq's most vulnerable citizens. Yet, with modesty, Sumaida’ie acknowledges that Iraq cannot address the deepening crisis alone. The magnitude of the crisis is far greater than what the present capacity of Iraq's government can handle. Stronger international assistance is also needed to help alleviate the burden on refugee-hosting countries like Jordan and Syria.

It is a remarkable speech that I hope you’ll watch and share with your friends. To watch now, click the video above.

Experience the 2008 IRAQ FORUM

The humanitarian impact of the war in Iraq is one of the most ignored and urgent crises of our time. To bring more attention to the crisis, EPIC organized Iraq Action Days – a joint initiative of more than 20 organizations – bringing hundreds of constituents to Washington DC to demand humanitarian action for peace in Iraq.

A major part of Iraq Action Days is The 2008 IRAQ FORUM: a series of panels and lectures by the best minds on Iraq, including United Nations and government officials, human rights advocates, aid workers and leading experts from Iraq and the region. Thanks to participation from activists across the country, the Q and A discussion was lively and extremely informative, particularly in challenging government officials to do more. For the first time, you can watch the 2008 IRAQ FORUM online in its entirety.

Become part of the experience. Watch the 2008 IRAQ FORUM now.


Introduction (4:17) from Sarah Shannon on Vimeo.

What are the latest trends in violence? How are innocent civilians affected by the conflict? Why is so little known about the second largest displaced population in the world? What is being done and what must still be done to help vulnerable Iraqis? The 2008 IRAQ FORUM addresses these questions and more.

Video caption: Opening remarks by MC Zahir Janmohamed from Amnesty International and Erik Gustafson of the Education for Peace in Iraq Center.(IRAQ FORUM, April 14, 2008).

Putting Iraq's Budget Surplus into Context

More than 2 million Iraqis have fled the country, while another 2.8 million people are internally displaced. To make matter worse, Iraqis are facing the worst drought in ten years. Millions live in hunger or fear of starvation.

Meanwhile here in the U.S., the lead Iraq story is the Iraqi government's budget surplus. A new GAO report projects that Iraq's cumulative budget surplus could reach as high as $79 billion by year's end. Pundits and politicians are asking: "They have the money so what's the problem?" The problem begins with decades of war, tyranny and sanctions that hampered Iraq's development. Then the U.S. toppled Iraq's government, allowed government ministries to be looted and destroyed, dismissed civil servants with any ties to Saddam's Baath Party, disbanded Iraq's military, created a security vacuum, which led many Iraqi professionals to flee the country.

Last Friday, a New York Times editorial declared: "Iraq now lacks the trained professionals to prepare and execute budgets and to solicit, award and oversee capital projects. The United States must redouble its efforts to help Iraq build this capacity, including bringing back skilled Iraqis who have fled the country."

Yes, Iraq's government can and must do better. But at the same time, as both the GAO report and New York Times point out, the U.S. is NOT off the hook. Until Iraq's government is fully functional, the U.S. has a moral and international obligation to address the unmet humanitarian needs of vulnerable Iraqis, and to work with the international community to provide technical capacity-building assistance to Iraq's government.

On a national, provincial, and municipal level, assistance is needed to build up:

• Institutional Capacities - Policies, strategies and implementing tools are in place to ensure efficient coordination and management of aid.
• Human Capacities - Skilled, trained personnel are in place to implement policies and strategies, and to maintain the government-donor interface.
• Structural / Economic Capacities - Capacity of the recipient country’s economy to absorb additional aid with minimal distortion (“dutch disease”) etc.

Progress in building up Iraq's capacities would not only allow implementing agencies to spend down their budgets, it would have a profound impact on the security, health and welfare of Iraq's 27 million people. For more about Iraq's budget surplus and other ongoing challenges facing Iraqi officials, see Reports: 8/6/2008 below.

Photo caption: A man sows a crop on a dry field on the outskirts of Najaf, 100 miles south of Baghdad, Iraq, Wednesday, July 2, 2008. It's been a year of drought and sand storms across Iraq, a dry spell that has devastated the country's crucial wheat crop and created new worries about the safety of drinking water (AP Photo by Alaa Al-Marjani).

Reports: 8/6/2008

Key reports on the Iraq relief and development:

Stabilizing and Rebuilding Iraq: Iraqi Revenues, Expenditures, and Surplus
Government Accountability Office (GAO)
August 2008
From 2005 through 2007, the Iraqi government generated an estimated $96 billion in cumulative revenues (mostly from oil sales). For 2008, GAO estimates that Iraq could generate as much as $86 billion in total revenues. From 2005 through 2007, the Iraqi government spent an estimated $67 billion on operating and investment activities. The Iraqi government spent only 1% of total expenditures to maintain Iraq- and U.S.-funded investments such as buildings, water and electricity installations. From 2005 through 2007, Iraq was unable to spend all its budgeted funds. In 2007, Iraq spent 80% of its $29 billion operating budget and 28% of its $12 billion investment budget. For 2008, GAO estimates that Iraq could spend as much as $35.9 billion of its $49.9 billion budget. As a result, GAO estimates a cumulative budget surplus of about $29 billion from 2005 to 2007 and projects an additional $38 to $50 billion budget surplus for 2008 (although a proposed $22 billion Iraqi budget supplemental could reduce this projected surplus). U.S. and international officials identify the shortage of trained staff, weak procurement and budgeting systems, violence and sectarian strife, and other factors affecting the Iraqi government’s ability to spend more of its revenues on capital investments.

Failed Responsibility: Iraqi Refugees in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon
International Crisis Group (ICG)
July 2008
Although the security situation in Iraq shows progress, Iraqi refugees remain stranded, jobless and deprived of essential services, while the Iraqi government and the wider international community have failed in their responsibilities and are ill prepared to cope with a new refugee crisis, should it occur. While initially welcoming their Iraqi brethren, ICG reports that Syria and Jordan have put tough restrictions on entry. They provide few basic services and inadequate opportunities for jobs, health care and children's education. If the host countries can be faulted for unfriendly treatment of refugees, they deserve credit for receiving so many at great cost to their societies. By contrast, it is difficult to give the Iraqi government any credit. Flush with oil money, it has been conspicuously ungenerous toward its citizens stranded abroad. The attitude of Western nations also has been deeply troubling.

Iraq Displacement 2008 Mid-Year in Review
International Organization for Migration (IOM)
July 2008
During the first half of 2008, trends of decreased violence and a declining rate of displacement continued throughout the country. Yet the deteriorating conditions facing the 2.8 million Internally Displaced People (IDPs), as well as the limited returnee population, remain one of the most serious humanitarian crises in the world. The report finds that about half of the population continue to get their water from unsafe sources -- 53% from nearby rivers and streams and 52% from open or broken pipes. Meanwhile, shelter is consistently among the highest-priority needs cited by IDPs, and eviction threats coupled with rapidly rising rental prices have created an even more precarious housing situation in recent months. Food access was also poor, only three in ten had regular access to food rations. About half had intermittent access and 21% no access at all. In addition, approximately two million Iraqis are refugees, mostly in neighboring Syria and Jordan, resulting in a total of 5 million internally and externally displaced.

Assessment on Returns to Iraq Amongst Iraqi Refugee Population in Syria
United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR)
April 2008
A survey of nearly 1,000 Iraqis currently staying in Syria has shown that 95 percent fled their homeland because of direct threats or general insecurity and that only 4 percent currently had plans to return to Iraq.

Consolidated Appeal for Iraq 2008
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
February 2008
Conflict in Iraq has exacerbated chronic problems that stem from the past two decades. An estimated four million people in the country are in need of food assistance as the Public Distribution System is weakened, and only 40 percent of the population has reliable access to safe drinking water. As part of the global Consolidated Appeal Process (CAP) for 2008, the $265 million Emergency Appeal for Iraq brings together 14 UN agencies and 10 NGOs to deliver urgent relief to vulnerable people in Iraq over the next 12 months. Priority areas include health and nutrition, education, water and sanitation, housing and shelter, food, and protection. These operations are designed to move into recovery programs and are part of a wider effort to support Iraq’s own goals for stability and recovery.

Plight of Iraqi refugees demands 'humanitarian surge'

In today’s edition of The Hill, Congressmen Hastings and Dingell published an editorial calling for a “humanitarian surge” to confront the refugee and displacement crisis in Iraq. “Not nearly enough attention and resources have been devoted to the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the region…Iraqis remain stranded, jobless and deprived of essential services, with conditions worsening by the day. As resources are depleted and desperation sets in, this deepening humanitarian crisis threatens to further destabilize the entire region.”

Congressmen Hastings and Dingell, along with Congressman Shays, recently introduced the Iraqi Refugee and Internally Displaced Persons Humanitarian Assistance, Resettlement, and Security Act (H.R. 6496), a long-term comprehensive strategy to address the humanitarian and security crisis in Iraq and the region.

Specifically, H.R. 6496 supports a multi-year, comprehensive plan to address the deepening crisis facing Iraqi refugees, displaced persons and other vulnerable Iraqis by doing the following:

• Authorizing $700 million for each of the fiscal years 2009, 2010 and 2011 for the relief of Iraqi refugees, internally displaced persons, and other vulnerable Iraqis;
  
• Increasing direct accountable bilateral assistance, as appropriate under U.S. law, and funding for international organizations and NGOs working in the region;
  
• Authorizing $500 million to increase infrastructure support for Jordan to help meet the needs of 100,000s of Iraqi refugees;
  
• Providing technical assistance to grow the capacity of Iraqi government agencies responding to humanitarian needs inside Iraq;
  
• Increasing Iraqi refugees admissions to the United States by 20,000 for FY 2009, 2010 and 2011, and requires improvements in the efficiency of the resettlement application process;
  
• Establishing a Special Coordinator for Iraqi Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons within the Executive Office of the President to ensure expeditious and effective implementation of the overall strategy; and
  
• Urging increased cooperation between the United States government and the international community to address this crisis.

The bill has already been endorsed by more than 25 non-governmental organizations and religious groups and is generating a huge amount of excitement in the NGO community. In their editorial, Congressmen Hastings and Dingell urge their colleagues to “set partisan politics aside and work together to find common solutions to this desperate situation.”

The House Foreign Affairs Committee Approves a Bill to Help Iraqi Refugees

Yesterday, I watched as the House Foreign Affairs Committee approved H.R. 6328, a bill creating a White House coordinator for Iraqi Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons in the Executive Office of the President. The creation of such a high level position could strengthen America's ability to respond to the humanitarian crisis.

The coordinator will:

• Develop and implement U.S. policies, coordinate federal functions, and address the protection, resettlement, and assistance needs of Iraqi refugees and displaced persons
  
• Monitor the development and implementation of assistance strategies to countries in the Middle East hosting Iraqi refugees
  
• ensure that the President's budget requests to Congress are sufficient to meet the needs of such persons, including providing assistance for international efforts on behalf of such persons
  
• Serve as principal liaison with the government of Iraq and the international community and organizations that are assisting such persons
  
• Ensure that the U.S. government will encourage refugee returns only when conditions permit safe and voluntary returns
  

Congressman Howard L. Berman (D-CA), Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and cosponsor of the bill, stressed the need for action: "Communities have been overrun by violence from all sides, uprooting families and destroying livelihoods. We have a moral obligation to make every effort to help these people, especially those who have assisted our forces and personnel in Iraq and who fear they may never be able to go home.” The bill would be a very productive step in getting the White House to publicly recognize the crisis.

We commend Chairman Howard L. Berman (D-CA) on his leadership, and the 10 cosponsors for supporting this important measure. It may be referred to another committee before reaching the floor of the House for a vote.

Photo Caption: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman of California listens as ranking member Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida makes an opening statement during recent markup hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Silent Victims of the Iraq War

In honoring World Refugee Day today, we should comprehend the impact that conflict has on the most innocent and vulnerable members of society. Five years after the U.S. invaded Iraq, more than 800,000 children have been forced to flee their homes to escape the violence. According to a report released Tuesday, most are unable to go to school and 60% do not have access to clean drinking water. More than half of the displaced children suffer from malnutrition. The mortality rate of children under 5 years old is three times higher in Iraq than in Syria or Jordan. Radhika Coomaraswamy, the UN Secretary General’s Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflicts said that displaced children, “lack access to the most basic services and manifest a wide range of psychological symptoms from the violence in their everyday lives.” Violence and conflict have defined the lives of an entire generation of Iraqi children.

What is being done to help displaced children?

The United Nations Children’s Fund, better known as UNICEF, created a new emergency response mechanism called "IMPACT: Iraq" which will begin in July. It will deliver healthcare, clean water, sanitation, and emergency education resources to 360,000 children and their families. Sigrid Kaag, UNICEF’s Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, said that IMACT: Iraq will, “ allow us to have better access…to address the needs of education, health water and sanitation.” The biggest hurdle to IMPACT: Iraq will be safe access for humanitarian workers to reach the families in need. There are many other obstacles, but Kaag remains optimistic. “We see a new momentum to meet the needs on the ground through stronger partnerships. Results…indicate we can deliver even under very difficult conditions.” Through efforts like this, the needs of millions of Iraqis can be addressed.

On this day reserved by the United Nations to remember refugees worldwide, please take the time to think about the lives of the millions of people who were forced to flee their homes because of violence.

Please take the first step in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Iraq by signing the EPIC Humanitarian Pledge. For more information about the Humanitarian Pledge, refugee crisis in Iraq, and World Refugee Day 2008, please read the entry below.

World Refugee Day: June 20, 2008

As many of you know, tomorrow is the seventh annual World Refugee Day. The United Nations designated June 20 as World Refugee Day to recognize the contributions of refugees around the world and to remember their plight. The theme for the 2008 World Refugee Day is: "Protecting Refugees: Rebuilding Lives in Safety and Dignity." Right now, more than 5.2 million Iraqis have been driven from their homes. 2.5 million Iraqis fled from Iraq, seeking refuge in neighboring countries, particularly Jordan and Syria. Another 2.7 million are displaced within Iraq. Some estimate that 30% of the refugees are children. "Displacement leaves children at risk for disease, with lack of adequate healthcare and nutrition, and places many children at risk for abuse. Of the displaced children younger than five, almost half suffer from malnutrition."

The United Nations High Commission for Refugees, or UNHCR, is an agency of the United Nations mandated to lead and coordinate international action to protect refugees and resolve refugee problems worldwide. They also provide support to governments in the region that are struggling to cope with the huge influx of refugees from Iraq. So far, the UNHCR has registered more than 280,000 Iraqis in neighboring states, provided health care for 250,000 people and enabled 72,000 Iraqi refugee children to attend school. In January, UNHCR appealed for 261 million dollars to fund its operation aimed at helping some of the most vulnerable refugees. However, they only received 134 million, leaving them 127 million dollars short of the necessary funding to continue support in Iraq. António Guterres, the High Commissioner for Refugees for the UN stated, “Without this support, the humanitarian crisis we have faced over the past two years may grow even larger.”

A lot has been done to address the refugee crisis, but there are still many needs that are unmet.

What can you do to help on World Refugee Day?

To honor World Refugee Day, we urge you to sign the Humanitarian Pledge and send it to your peers. The pledge has 3 core components:

• A belief that the people of Iraq and the United States are interconnected by events since the war began in 2003 and that more must be done to help the millions of displaced Iraqis.
  
• A call for President Bush, his successor, and Congress to do more to strengthen assistance to the region; to support effective relief, peace-building, and community-based development; and to increase US admission to vulnerable Iraqis.
  
• A commitment to help the millions of Iraqis in need of aid and to make a better, safer world.
  

CLICK HERE TO SIGN THE HUMANITARIAN PLEDGE

Yesterday, Ken Bacon, president of Refugees International, wrote an interesting article about the refugee crisis in Iraq and the response by the US government. In the article, he stated: “President Bush has never mentioned the plight of displaced Iraqis, and other White House officials act as though the problem doesn't exist.”

Please do not let the humanitarian crisis in Iraq continue to go unnoticed.

Brookings Institute: One Year Later

My name is Michael Gaubinger and I am working at the Education for Peace in Iraq Center for the summer of 2008. I will be entering my junior year at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst in the fall and am studying political science.

On Friday, June 13, the Brookings Institute hosted Senior Fellows Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack for a discussion of their recent visit to Iraq. The discussion was called "Iraq: One Year Later." The fact-finding trip was sponsored by the Department of Defense and, while on the trip, they met with American and British soldiers, Iraqi government officials, and other Iraqis. They were unable to meet with very many Iraqi civilians, so their report is not an accurate gauge of the pulse on the street. The discussion began with a brief lecture by each individual about his impressions of the current situation in Iraq. Both men highlighted the improvement in security. O’Hanlon commented that, “This has been the spring of the beginning of the blossoming of the Iraq security forces.” Did the surge work? O’Hanlon says: “Since 2007, Iraq has seen an eighty percent reduction in violence against citizens as measured by the United States military, the Iraqi government, and even some independent sources.” He also stressed the increasing sense of control by the Iraqi government. Great challenges still exist, but the trend-line is positive. Pollack also noted that Iraqi security forces have emerged as a factor for the first time and are now contributing to the coalition effort. There are now 560,000 Iraqi Security Forces and that number is growing by 100,000 troops per year. The training system is working and as many as ten Iraqi brigades are combat ready now. The first wave of problems have been identified and confronted. Now, the United States faces the task of solving the old problems while shifting its focus to the second wave of problems. While the military and police are growing strong, Iraq’s civilian institutions remain weak. The progress of Iraqi regiments and security forces is a large contributor to the reduction in civilian violence in Iraq. For the nearly five-million Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons, a sense of security and safety is a crucial step towards helping these individuals return home.

O’Hanlon and Pollack were asked about the potential for a decrease in American involvement in Iraq through the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. Both agreed that an immediate withdrawal would be dangerous and set back the progress that they described. Furthermore, any reduction in current troop levels must be based on progress and not set to a calendar. O’Hanlon stressed that improvements in the mind-set of the Iraqi government were, in part due to the pressure applied by the Democratic leadership which reinforced the notion that American presence in Iraq must not be taken for granted by the Iraqi government. To ensure continued support from the United States, the Iraqi government must match the effort of the United States. According to Pollack, the general election in Iraq in 2009 represents a key moment politically within Iraq which could either cement and solidify the improvements or reverse them. Therefore, America withdrawal of troops before the elections could have dire consequences.

Planting the seeds of sustainable economic development is one of the first steps in redressing the humanitarian needs of Iraq. O’Hanlon and Pollack were asked about the current state of the Iraqi economy, specifically at the individual level. Oil exports are the backbone of Iraq’s economy, accounting for 98% of its revenue. Although oil exports are high and profitable for Iraq, they painted a bleak picture of life for the average citizen. Healthcare is poor and infant mortality rates are rising. There is not enough potable water. Unemployment is high and, among Iraqi civilians, there are no optimistic expectations of improvement. Due to the poor state of the economy, the return of refugees and internally displaced persons is a greater concern. Pollack suggested that an Iraqi government initiated housing project would help the economy by providing jobs and creating houses for some of the millions of displaced citizens.

A core component of the security improvement is sectarian separation. So far, approximately one-half of the sectarian separation has occurred, but there are some important concerns about the long-term sustainability of the recent improvements, which are due to forced ethnic division. What will happen when the walls are taken down? They were also asked about the current debate over the status of forces agreement. I will discuss this further in an upcoming blog. The final question directly addressed the willingness of the United States to take in refugees from Iraq. In 2008, the United States government promised to take in 7,000 refugees from Iraq, while Sweden is expected to take in 20,000 displaced persons. Pollack credited the low number of Iraqi refugees in America to fears by the Department of Homeland Security that the United States would be letting potential terrorists into the country; fears he categorized as foolish and repugnant.

O’Hanlon and Pollack both agree that Iraq faces many great challenges and unforeseen obstacles, but that the nation shows signs of improvement. Iraqi security forces are standing up as we transition to a plan where Iraqi forces are in the lead with American support, rather than the United States playing the lead role.